Yes, I was talking about next year and beyond as well.
Just because the luxury tax rate will be reset, it won't mean Castillo's contract is much more attractive. $10.4M at 50% is $15.6M, but at 20%, it's still $12.5M. I'm not sure the $3M differential will make a big impact on the decision to add Castillo to the 40 man roster or just find another de Aza type at a fraction of the cost.
Even though we lose Young, Moreland and Abad, the arb raises will just about eat all those savings up. Hopefully Devers can replace Moreland (Pablo to 1B?) and Swihart can replace Young, but my guess is, we add a 1B/OF type player.
I just don't see us ever calling up Castillo for more than a few weeks in an emergency, and then DFA'ing him again. For us to add him for a full season, he's going to have to prove he can earn that money. Even with an 1.000 OPS at AAA this year, I'm still not sure that would be enough for management to bring him up long term. I suppose, if we intend to bring him up for a 3-4 week stretch while an OF'er recovers from injury, and he does very well while up, then things could change.
I think those are long odds.