moonslav59

Sub Chavis or Ockimey and Beeks or Lakins for Betts, and I'd think about it. Maybe they'd take HRam back as a salary offset piece. HRam Bogey ERod Ockimey Lakins

That doesn't always mean what it looks like. Nobody claimed Manny either, yet years later when he was imploding mentally and everyone knew we were trying to dump him, we got jason bay for him.

Cozart never hit more than 16 HRs before this year's 18. His .947 OPS screams "OUTLIER!". He's never been over .770 before this year. He's not our missing clean-up hitter and may be no better than a healthy Bogey next year. Hosmer is NOT a clean-up hitter either. While 28 is a nice age for a FA and would be an upgrade over Moreland, I don't see him as filling the obvious need we have- power hitting clean up hitter. This is his first season over .822. He's inconsistent (under .762 in 2 of the last 4 seasons). Moustakas seems to fit the need most from your list. 29 is a decent age for a big signing, but he also is having a somewhat "outlier season". His current .867 OPS is over 50 points better than any previous season. His 36 HRs are impressive, but he never hit more than 22 before and that was in 2015- the only year his OBP was above .320. He's risky, but I feel, he's the best choice of this bunch to fill our power hitter need. The problem is, we have a good, promising, young 3Bman now, and moving him to 1B might be premature. JD Martinez is not on your list, and I hate signing a guy that would likely play DH almost FT AND force HRam to have to play 1B FT or platoon with Travis. JD will be 30 next year and has hit over 22 HRs for 4 straight seasons- something nobody above has done. He's also hit over 34 HRs twice (2017 and 2015). He's got a sweet OBP of over .340, but has been over .358 in 3 of his last 4 seasons. He's been over .879 four straight seasons. He fits our power hitting need best, but plays the wrong position. If he DHs and we go to an NL park, we have to sit one of our best 4 hitters: Martinez, Betts, Beni or JBJ. Like I said, it's not an easy fix. I doubt Votto is an easy get. He doesn't want to be traded. If we could get Cincy to take HRam as a salary offset along with a bunch of highly regarded young players, maybe they'd bite. Since they are losing Cozart, maybe they'd be interested in.... Bogey, Chatham, Groome, Chavis or Ockimey plus HRam instead of money. We'd then have to find a SS. Again, not an easy fix. (No Bogey would mean adding Flores and Beeks or more)

Who? Those don't come easy, and if he doesn't play 1B, we are displacing a current player. Which player would that be? I feel we need a bigger bat than Hosmer, a more predictable bat than Duda or Morrison and one that can turn this offense around. Free agents this year, are not that great. Maybe only JD Martinez and Moustakas might fit that need. Both would involve moving a player or would have to play DH- neither fill our 1B need. Trading for a 1Bman (Votto?) would be costly in many ways. I don't see an easy winter fix.

With so many days off in the playoffs, the fact that Pom needs pen help is not a major issue. As of right now, I go... 1. Sale 2. Pom 3. Fister 4. ERod Cy Porcello goes to long relief.

It makes me curious why one our youngest teams in memory needs so much rest.

I seriously doubt we sign even a mid level RP'er this winter. There's not as much money available as many think as players like Sale get hefty raises and arb raises will be costly. Lucky, we should be going over the luxury limit next year and maybe by a lot. I see us spending large on a clean-up hitter (1B/3B/DH) and maybe bring back Nunez or sign another offensive piece. Our pen may actually have more pitchers than we have room for... 2018 Pen Kimbrel Smith Thornburg Kelly Workman Barnes Hembree (out of options) Wright (if not a starter) R Ross Scott Maddox Taylor Johnson/Beeks/Elias/Haley/Velazquez Poyner/Cosart/Shepherd/Buttrey

He's gotta work on that hez before his throw. It seems like something that is easily correctable, but by trying to fix it, he could get more wild with his throws. Time will tell.

I certainly would prefer to let Devers improve at 3B and stay there, but I'm not a big Hosmer fan. I don't see any sure fire big FA 1Bman this winter, so that is why I suggested the idea. It's not like Devers is a great defender at 3B, so in a way it would solve two problems "perpetrate" one. We could possibly trade for Votto, but he want's to stay in Cincy. There's Abreu on the White Sox, but he's not a big difference maker. To me, trading for Donaldson or signing Moustakas might be the best choice. Notice I said "might". I'm not sold on the idea yet either, but do you have a better idea on acquiring a big bat this winter?

True, but every team plays with and through injuries.

I'd guess Bogey and JBJ will be better over the next 4-5 years combined than their 2017 numbers. It would be ahrd for me to bet that Bogey will end up closer to 2016 than 2017 over the next 4-5 years, but I think JBJ will. I expect Pedey and HRam to continue declining. Leon is probably going to always be between .625 and .700. Vaz may keep going well, but should end up between .700-.750. I think Beni will improve. Devers is tough to call. I'm hopeful we pick up a mega power hitter to bat clean-up next year- probably 1B or 3B (Devers to 1B). This might be good enough for next year... 1. Bogey or Pedey 2. Betts 3. Beni 4. Power hitter 5. Devers 6. Pedey or Bogey 7. HRam or JBJ 8. JBJ or HRam 9. Vaz/Leon I'd like to see Nunez back and Holt gone, but who knows.

Nice to see 6 runs, but still not getting to 10 hits in a game. Nice job by Fister. 25 Ks last night. 10 tonight. Fister has been a godsend.

Some- not all. I'm not doubting that some or most of these guys might actually be "closer" to what they look like this year than last. Most likely, they are somewhere in between. However, I still think it is very rare for any team or any given group of 8-10 players to go down hill by this much- all at once.

Big crooked numbers are nice.

By Ian Browne / MLB.com | BOSTON -- After throwing his fourth bullpen session in the span of a week on Wednesday, Red Sox left-hander David Price now has his next target in sight for a comeback that is starting to build some momentum. Price is likely to throw a simulated game of two innings and 30 pitches on Saturday at Fenway Park. This will mark the first time Price has faced hitters since his start against the Angels on July 22...If Price starts to build back up on a five-day routine of sim games without setbacks, he could probably get back to the six-to-seven-inning range by the last week of the regular season. There's also a chance the Red Sox could have him pitch in relief to speed up his return, though no discussions have taken place along those lines yet.

That's all I'm saying. 8 out of 8 and 9 of our top 10 is not something to just shrug off. If 6 out of 8 declined, it would be understandable. Then, when you see 4 of the 8 are down by more than .135 and all 8 are by more than .045, it becomes astonishing, to me anyways.

Final Minor League Numbers OPS .957 Barfield (28 HRs) .955 Devers (20 HRs + 8 in MLB) .910 Chavis (31 HRs) .863 Brentz (31 HRs) .857 Castillo (15) .820 Ockimey (14) OPS Against (60+ IP AA & AAA only) .507 Poyner .577 Velazquez .608 Olmos .641 Walden .654 Beeks .677 Johnson

It looks like there are better 3Bmen available than 1Bmen. Since Devers seems to have some issues to work out at 3B, it seems logical to at least consider signing or trading for a 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B.

I agree, but even when you might expect evenness or decline form those not named Betts & Bogey, the fact that all of those "other" 6 declined in the same year is not something mathematically suggested. Maybe 4 or 5 out of 6, but not all 6 PLUS Betts & Bogey all at once. Add Holt, Young and Beni too.

In a way, but there were a lot of difference between the two years. 1) We added a lot of new players for 2013: -Vic had an awesome year. -Napoli carried us at times. -Carp had his best career year. 2) Several players were in prime or post prime from 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014. 3) We didn't see 8 out of eight improve from 2012 to 2013 or decline from 2013 to 2014. Here's a look: (Players listed by most 2012 PAs) 2012-Player-2013-2014 .797 Pedey .787- .712 .663 Aviles>Drew .777> Bogey .660 .807 C Ross> Vic .801> JBJ .531 .812 AGon>Naps .842- .789 .742 Salty .804> AJP .633 1.026 Papi .959-.873 .682 Ellsb .781> Gomes .683/Holt .711 .742 Nava .831- .706 .835 Middy .696- .522/Holt .711 From 2012 to 2013, we saw 3 returning players get better (Nava, Salty & Ells) and 3 get worse (Papi, Middy & Pedey) From 2013 to 2014, we saw all 5 returning players do worse than 2013. This year, it is 8 out of 8, and half the players are approaching prime or in early prime years.

Fair enough. I'm not mystified we are worse than last year, but how many times do your top 8 players all decline at the same time?

I'm not sure anyone expected everyone to "hit like last year", but when you look at the normal age progression curves, expecting half or more to do better or equal seemed reasonable. All 8 of our top returning hitters from last year, by the most PAs, are worse this year. 9 out of 10 are worse. Only Vaz (#9 in PAs) is doing better. Many of these hitters are doing way worse-- like 4 are over 100 points worse. To me, that is inescapably mystifying.

Betts has 2 HRs in 9 ABs vs this guy and his 5.01 ERA.

I'm in the central time zone, so it wasn't difficult for me. I usually watch the games on delay, so I can fast-forward the commercials. I'm not used to sitting through so many commercials and pitching changes. It was torturous. The win made the pain go away.

Yes. I'm not sure where to find the data on swinging at first pitches, especially first half vs second half. I think our issue is that we have 3-4 players that are way out of wack when it comes to taking first pitches. They are handing the opps a free pass.