moonslav59

I'm less optimistic than I was earlier in the year, but I still have hopes. I am not very hopeful our hitters will improve. I was earlier. I remain hopeful, because I love our pitching and defense. Our base running is a plus, too, if we can avoid making so many blunders while still remaining aggressive. I've always been a believer that a Sox team can win without being a leader in offense. I still believe.

It's still got to be done. We have to break the cycle of predictability, or we are probably doomed. BTW, when we do swing at the first pitch and put it in play, we have an .821 OPS.

I thought we'd drop to 3rd or 5th in runs scored, so I guess that means about 100 runs, but that assumed the rest of the league wasn't going to start going bonkers with more HRs and runs scored. If I had told you that we'd lose Papi, and 8 out of our top 8 returning players by PAs would decline in OPS- many by more than 100 points, I think we'd expect scoring much less than just a 100 to 120 run differential. Returning Players Only 2016 to 2017 (In order of 2016 PAs) .897 Betts .760 (-137) .802 Bogey .728 (-74) .825 Pedey .778 (-47) .835 J. B. J. .776 (-59) .866 HRam .760 (-106) .705 Holt .500 (-205) .845 Leon .652 (-193) .850 Young .710 (-140)_______ .585 Vaz .734 (+149) .835 Beni .798 (-37) 4 of 8 are 137 points or worse! 5 of our top 8 returning players are doing over 100 points worse! All 8 are worse by 47 points or more. That's shocking.

Agree. I was only speaking towards his influence on others concerning taking the first pitch so damn often.

I think she actually makes some insightful comments. Something I can't say about the other two.

Yes, it's obvious they have no faith in BB. There were several easy options to add Brentz to the roster. They must not have felt they'd use BB this year (or next, as he will be a minor league FA this winter.) I doubt he'd have made a difference, but I felt like he should have at least been given a chance to PH here and there this month. If he did well, he could have been given more playing time.

Not saying much, but I think she's the best of the bunch.

I don't want JF fired right now either. I have said that a number of times. I was never high on JF as a manager. I feel he is very good with pitchers. I have disliked JF for over a year, but I only recently became vocal about it.

I don't disagree, but then that means our decline in HRs is even more unexplainable. With a juiced ball we should have seen an increase from our top HR players. We had 2 returning players who hit 30 HRs last year. Those two are on pace to go from 61 HRs to 46. Our next 3 are on pace to go from 62 to 33. Without a juiced ball, I guess we'd have even less HRs than we see here. I'm not saying the ball didn't change, but if it was, it makes our decline even more shocking. Let's look at SLG% from 2016 to 2017. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=1&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d 13 of the top 18 teams are from 2017. 19 of the top 29 teams are from 2017. The leaders: 1. HOU '17 .485 2. BOS '16 .461 ... 43. BOS '17 .408 While the league has gone from .417 to .427 from 2016 to 2017, much less than the HR increase, the Sox went from .461 to .408. Sure, Papi's loss accounts for some of that decline, but Moreland has done better than expected and leads the team in SLG at .442. That's way worse than Papi's .620 from last year, but still. Our young and in prime hitters have greatly declined.

Just to be clear, I used the word "implosion" in the context of what it might take to get JF fired. I did not mean to even imply we were in the midst of one. We've had rough patches several times this year and bounced back. There's no reason to think this is anything more than just a rough patch. We do need to treat this as a wake-up call. We are nearing the playoffs and need to reach our stride before it's too late.

While the age old statement that you "can't fire 25 players" is historically true, there have been times when the Sox came pretty close to totally overhauling the 25 man roster after falling short of expectations. Look at 2012 to 2013 Leaders in PAs 623 Pedroia 724 546 Aviles ---Gone (Drew 501) 528 C Ross---Gone (Vic 532) 527 AGon--- Gone (Napoli 578) 448 Salty 470 383 Ortiz 600 323 Ellsbury 636 317 NAva 536 286 Middy 374 ---but Bogey took his place in Sept 272 Ciriaco 58--- replaced by Iggy 219 Sweeney---Gone (Gomes 366) 216 Podsednik---Gone (Gomes) 166 Lava---Gone (D Ross 116) 165 Youk--- Gone (Carp 243) 158 Shoppach---Gone 148 Punto ---Gone 125 Crawford ---Gone IP 205 Lester 213(Gone in 2014) 189 Buch 108 161 Doubront 162 (Gone in 2014) 127 Beckett ---Gone 94 Cook --- Gone 84 Aceves 37 76 Morales ---Gone 59 Bard --- Gone 51 Atchison ---Gone 50 Padilla ---Gone 46 Dice-K ---Gone 45 Melancon ---Gone 44 Tazawa 68 42 Mortenson 30 40 Miller 31 It can and has happened. Granted, it does not happen when a team is in first place.

I didn't say we were in the midst of an implosion. I guess we could be in the beginning stages of one, but I don't think we are. I'm hoping we don't have an implosion. I'm thinking it might take an implosion to get DD to fire JF. I'm not hoping we have an implosion just so JF gets axed. That's something I could never even dream of wanting to happen.

That makes some sense, but we had several players who had way more HRs last year than this: HRs 2016 to 2017 31 Betts 18 (on pace for 21) 30 HRam 22 (25) 26 JBJ 14 (17) 21 Bogey 8 (9) 15 Pedey 6 (7) These 5 players hit 122 HRs last year. This year, those 5 are on pace to hit 79. That's a massive decline from our top 5 HR players last year. What's the reason?

I agree. I was commenting on the mood swing of this board. It doesn't surprise me. Every board I've ever been on has people that are easily influenced by short streaks- good or bad. My point is that JF has always been this way. It shouldn't take a mere 5 games stretch to see him for what he has always been: an excellent pitching coach but a poor manager.

I'd say Betts is very close to JBJ's level. Both are GG caliber. I would also say JBJ is slightly better, but it is very close to the same level. Bogey is not even an average defender at SS. Even if you want to claim he's slightly above average, I would not call that "solid". Plus, he's gotten worse over the last 2 years, when one would normally expect improvement. 2016-2017 (33 SSs with 1000+ innings) 19th in UZR/150 (-2.2) 33rd in DRS (-23) These numbers show he is not even average. Defensive Runs saved show he is the very worst. You may disagree with the validity of defensive metrics, but calling the worst DRS'd SS "Solid" is really a stretch. Note: 2014-2015 (34 SSs with 1000+ innings) 19th in UZR/150 (0.9) slightly better than 2016 to 2017 22nd in DRS (-10) way better than 2016-2017 Bogey has clearly gotten at least a little worse. He started out below average. He is now clearly below average. One could argue he is bottom 5 to 6 out of 30. He's not a "solid defender". Not even close.

Agreed. We seem to be using the same hitting philosophy we've used for years. Other teams have adjusted. We have nit adjusted to their adjustments.

Maybe... - Balls and strikes called differently - More teams using technology to improve hitting approaches - Teams recognizing the Sox hitters are slow to adjust their approach (too easy predictability) A juiced ball should have helped the Sox too, so I doubt that is it. Decline in pitching should have helped us, too. We added Beni and Devers, so we had "an influx" of good young hitters, too. I'm not sure there is a simple explanation. I know some want to claim almost all of our players got worse, because of Papi's departure. I just can't accept that as being a significant factor in our offensive decline. Certainly going from Papi to Moreland was going to create some decline from 2016 to 2017, but while most of the league has seen players doing better from 2016 to 2017, almost all of our players have gotten worse or much worse. When you also see that none of our regular players are post-prime, the declines are baffling, to me. Leon's decline was expected, but not this... 2016 to 2017 .897 Betts .769 (-118) 22 y/o .866 HRam .760 (-106) 33 y/0 .850 Young .710 (-140) 33 y/o .845 Leon .652 (-193) 28 y/o .835 JBJ .770 (-65) 27 y/o .835 Beni .798 (-37) 22 y/o .825 Pedey .778 (-47) 33 y/o .802 Bogey .728 (-74) 24 y/o .705 Holt .500 (-205) 29 y/o .585 Vaz .734) (+149) 26 y/o These numbers speak for themselves. The drop off by all but one player is mind-boggling. No player is older than 33. 7 of these players are 29 or less- ages that normally do NOT see decline. When 6 of those 7 decline, many by over 60 or 100 points, you have to shake your head and wonder.

On Brentz... We are going to have to trade or DFA some players to make room for rule 5 additions, so we probably already know who is going to go. We could have jumped the gun and made room for Brentz on the 40 man by getting rid of someone we are bound to get rid of later this fall. Here are the rule 5 players: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte Here are some players that could have been traded or DFA'd: Henry Owens Holt or Marrero (with Hernandez and Lin, we don't need both for 2018. Elias or Kyle Martin Hembree is out of options and may not make the 25 man roster next year. We could have traded him. Boyer Young All we needed was to decide on one of these guys. I'm sure DD already knows which one will not be on the 40 man roster by rule 5 time.

soxprospects.com... The 2017 Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced, with seven members of the Red Sox set to play for the Peoria Javelinas. They will send infielders Michael Chavis, Josh Tobias, and Chad De La Guerra, and pitchers Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Ty Buttrey, and Bobby Poyner. Former Red Sox prospect Javier Guerra will also play with the Javelinas.

Probably the same for Brentz to some extent. It just doesn't project to the bigs. That being said, I'd have given Brentz a shot this September, even if just as a PH'er to start.

Is Farrell any better or worse than he was 2 weeks to 2 months ago? The mood on this board sure has changed in just 2 weeks.

One word: Pablo.

It's very painful to watch right now. Frustrating and painful. That being said, we've had some rough patches before and bounced back. Our pitching and defense is better than last year. That counts for something, especially in an era where run-scoring has skyrocketed. That brings me to an important point- not an excuse, but still important. We are on pace to score 766 runs this year (4.73 per game). That would have placed us 6th or 7th last year, which is about where many of us expected us to finish this year after the loss of Papi. 766 would have been just 13 runs from finishing 3rd last year. While this might all seem irrelevant today, and in some ways it is, the fact is the league has passed us. The offensive increase by most teams is about as influential in our ranking drop as our decline. This doesn't make the issue any less important, but when comparing this team to last year's team, it's really not that much worse than it appears. The context of the numbers has changed radically, and that has hurt this team beyond what some of us expected. There were many posters who warned of the offense being way too weak to compete. This offense surprised me and others. I don't think anyone expected just about every major player, except Vaz, who has only player just over half our games this year, to improve on offense. We've seen, what appears to be, an unprecedented decline by just about everyone, even players who are in prime or approaching prime- years where one might normally expect improvements not near total declines. Now, the other side of the equation. We all knew "the plan" was that improved pitching (Sale, Thornburg, Smith) and defense (Moreland, Beni) and maybe base-running would more than offset the expected slight (or major) decline in scoring. As the league has taken off in offense, the imporved pitching should be viewed as even more improved than it looks on paper due to the massive run increase from last year to this. Just as out offense looks worse in light of everyone else scoring more than last year, our pitching has vastly improved. This year, our pitching/defense has allowed 550 runs. That places us 6th (3rd in the AL behind CLE & NYY). That puts us on pace to allow 645 runs this year. Last year, we allowed 694 runs. We placed 9th. That's almost 50 runs less than last year. That should have and has offset some of the decline in offense. Our offense declined from 878 runs to a projected 766 runs scored this year. We may lose 120 runs scored while allowing 50 less. That's a net decline for sure. The 70 run differential is significant. It's almost a half a run (.43) per game. Now, just 2 weeks ago, our offense was projected to score enough to have placed 3rd last year, so maybe these projections will change, if we hit a hot streak, but the way this team has hit, I'm not very hopeful that happens. We have shown glimpses of offense here and there this year, but they have been few and far- between. Hoping or expecting this team to start hitting once the playoffs begin is probably just wishful thinking, but history has shown that teams can win without great or even good offense. We're going to have to ride our pitching and defense. We're going to have to hope our base-running is a plus by eliminating dumb mistakes. We're going to need some luck and/or timely hitting. I guess every team may need that to win it all. I haven't given up hope on this team, but our offense is surely a big weakness right now. It's painful to watch.

I might set up the rotation like this... September 5 ERod v TOR 6 Fister v TOR 7 --off-- 8 Pom +1 v TBR 9 Sale +1 v TBR 10 Porc +1 v TBR 11 --off-- 12 ERod +1 v OAK 13 Fister +1 v OAK 14 Pom +1 v OAK 15 Sale +1 @ TBR 16 Porc +1 @ TBR 17 ERod @ TBR 18 Fister @ BAL 19 Brian Johnson @ BAL 20 Pom +1 @BAL 21 --off-- 22 Sale +2 @ CIN 23 Fister @ CIN (Swap with Porcello) 24 Porc +3 @ CIN (Swap with Fister) 25 Pom v TOR 26 ERod +2 v TOR 27 Brian Johnson v TOR 28 Sale +1 v HOU 29 Fister +1 v HOU 30 Pom v HOU (Swap with Porcello) Oct 1 Por +2 v HOU (Swap with Pom) 2 ---off--- 3 ---AL WC game--- 4---off--- 5 AL Div Game 5 games: Sale (+2 days rest)-Fister (+2) -Pom (+3)-Porcello (+3) -Sale 30 Porc v HOU 31 30 ERo

Betts is awesome on D. He covers a lot of ground in Fenway's massive RF. Bogey is not "solid" on D, unless you think slightly below average (at best) is "solid".. The rest I agree with.