moonslav59

Red Sox Defeat Fernando Abad In Arbitration By Jeff Todd | January 31, 2017 at 9:50am CDT The Red Sox have announced that an arbitration panel found in the team’s favor after a hearing against lefty Fernando Abad. He’ll earn the team’s submitted salary of $2MM, instead of the $2.7MM that he sought. I'd trade him and add the surplus to our summer spending pool.

or, for letting us talk to or sign someone else.

Lots of birds.... Birdie Tebbetts Hawk Harleson Chicken Hawks Pete Falcone Bill Eagle Robin Roberts Jay Bruce Conrad Cardinal Sparrow Morton Joel Finch Ed Crane Ducky Hemp Alan Storke Dexter Fowler Goose Goslin Dennis Dove Russ Swan and Portland, Maine's own Billy Swift Other animals... Bert Hogg Mule Watson Fenton Mole Piggy Ward Bob Moose Pony Sager Joe Rabbitt Chief Yellow Horse Ron Deer Bunny Fabrique Gary Beare Snake Deal Doggie Miller Goat Anderson Turkey Stearnes

My point is that some posters are labeling players clutch or unclutch on sample sizes close to what Papi's was before 2004. Had circumstances been different, some one might consider Papi "unclutch" or neutral clutch had he not had many more opportunities after 2003. I don't think Papi developed into a clutch hitter after 2003. Papi was always Papi, but the scattered sample size taken before 2004 did not reflect who Papi really was. Assigning a label to a player based on small sample sizes makes no sense to me. I'm not negating the fact that players have had great playoffs or poor playoffs. Both have meaning, especially when it helped us win or lose, but it should not define who the player is or was.

He was 8 for 29 with the Twins in the playoffs with 0 HRs before 2003 with the Sox. Yes, he had 2 HRs and 6 RBI vs the Yanks in 2003 but was 2 for 21 vs Oakland the series beforehand.

What if the Sox never made the playoffs after 2003? Would Papi and his 17 for 76 record at that point be enough to call him "unclutch"?

Wow, you're a world traveler! Anyway, from what I can see, I think the M's might surprise some people. The Cano-Cruz-Felix train will not be running at full steam much longer. It might be now or never. My head is spinning from all the transactions going on your way.

Fair enough. I have no issues with what you bring to this site. I'm glad you're here. Is there not much chatter on the M's site?

Here's a look at some recent draft vs international signings periods: 2014: Draft: Kopech, Travis, Chavis, Ockimey Int'l: Moncada, Espinoza, Castillo, C Acosta 2013: Draft: TBall, T Stanki Int'l: Devers, J Diaz, Y Abar, Hinojosa 2012: Draft: B Johnson, Marrero, P Light Int'l: J Almonte, W Rijo, V Acosta 2011: Draft: Betts, JBJ, Swihart, Barnes, Shaw, Owens Int'l: Margot, Pimental, T-W Lin 2010: Draft: Ranaudo, Brentz, Workman, Vitek Int'l: J Aro, J Linares 2009: Draft: A Wilson, R Fuentes, A Hassan Int'l: Bogaerts, Iggy, F Montas

I think it is easily "explicable". Any random sample sizes of that size will generate some players that are way above or below their norms. I'm not saying high pressure has nothing to do with a player's performance, but taking tiny scattered sample sizes out of a players portfolio and then trying to make sense of numbers far out of sinc with the norm is not something I feel reveals anything useful in terms of labeling a player one name or another. Yes, Bagwell sucked in the few games he played in the playoffs. Papi did great. That's about all it means to me.

Good points, but I seriously doubt nobody else knew about the how that "rogue" employee got his information. Just my opinion. I will say that the ban on players "subject to the bonus pool" was still significant. We got some awesome players through the international market recently: we often paid penalties for going over the allotted pool limit, but at least we got to sign some top prospects. Moncada Devers Margot Bogaerts

I will say, the OPS+ stat is not usually your comp tool. DV has way less PAs with only one season over 378 PAs since 2011. WAR Comp over the last 3 years combined: HR: 4.2 (6.0 without 2015) DV: 3.7 Projected: HR: 2.0, 1.6, 2.1 DV: 0.4, 0.6, 1.4

And, the sample size from post season to post season and even season to season is even smaller than the career numbers.

I remember back in the day when I believed "clutch" might be some sort of skillset or repeatable aspect of a player's game, we acquired Tony Clark. I remember thinking he was always a clutch kind of hitter. He sucked for us, so I started looking more closely at other players I used to think were "clutch": Reggie Jackson, "Three run Homer" Eddie Murray, Miguel Tejada and the like. I realized they really weren't as "superhuman" as I once believed.

I'm not really into knowing what other fans are saying about their clubs, so it's hard for me to understand why harmony comes here. I've always figured I'll give anyone the benefit of the doubt, until they show me differently. I've read harmony's posts for many many years (some on the old BDC site), and I've never felt he was out to undermine our players. He's an M's fan, so he's not going to sugar coat Sox players like many of us do. When some of us get over exuberant about a player or our team in general, he's there to show a more balanced or unbiased point of view. I get annoyed by the over reliance on WAR and projected WAR, but at least it is supposed to be a neutral data source used to compare a player's value with others in the league. I usually could care less what M's player has a similar WAR or projected WAR as our player does, but it does open my eyes to the possibility that I have been over valuing our players. I'm fine with that. I just don't see it as "discrediting", since he hardly ever (if ever) cherry picks stats to undermine our players.

After the 3 game losing streak vs BAL in the middle of September, Yaz went 23 for 44, including 4 DBLs and 5 HRs. He went 7 for 8 in the final two barn-burner games of the season- both needed wins vs a tough MN club. No doubt, Yaz had many great performances when it counted.

Any comp to Papi should be about offense: Edgar (8672 PAs) .418 OBP .515 SLG .923 OPS 147 OPS+ 147 wRC+ .405 wOBA .873 OPS in the playoffs (148 PAs) Ortiz .380 OBP .552 SLG .931 OPS (Better than Edgar, but OBP > SLG, so I call it about even) 141 OPS+ 140 wRC+ .392 wOBA .947 OPS in the playoffs (369 PAs) All the numbers, except the playoff data, favor Edgar. Certainly, this is a fair comp.

Edgar deserves to be in the conversation with Papi. He was a beast!

Yaz also has a career 1.047 playoff OPS, so the "unclutch" argument made by small sample size (76 PAs) posters doesn't hold water either.

The thing is, any mathematician would say the data does not support the claim that Yaz was "unclutch" or Hendu was "clutch"due to the small sample size. I don't get the need to assign definitive labels to players based on such tiny and scatttered sample sizes. I'm fine with saying, "Boy, that Hendu sure came through in the clutch a lot", or "It's a bummer how Yaz seemed to come up so short when it counted." But, to label someone clutch oi unclutch is just too much for me. Making definitive judgmental and evaluative statements based on 4 or 5 key hits seems ludicrous to me. At least Papi's 369 career playoff PAs gets close to the an arguable sample size, especially when you look at his "clutch" numbers during the regular season as well.

He's a WAR freak, but at least he uses it consistently. I responded to his comp of Papi to Olerud & Grace by mentioning that WAR deducts for positional value of a DH. Player Batting Positional Base running Fielding Total WAR Ortiz 483.3 -236.2 -78.0 -12.3 50.5 Olerud 341.6 -144.2 -19.6 +98.8 57.3 Grace 226.6 -133.2 -12.5 +70.5 45.5 I don't want to get into the value of 1B defense, but comparing a DH to a 1Bman using WAR is like comparing apples to oranges. I realize WAR deducts for positional value of a 1Bman too, but not as much as a FT DH. Papi's batting blows those two away. Even if you add base running, it's... 405.3 Papi 322.0 Olerud 214.2 Grace

Harmony is about as neutral as one can be. On a site full of optimistic Red Sox fans, one can expect a neutral voice offering a more level viewpoint to appear negative.

I wasn't a baseball fan in 1967, but I remember thinking how fitting it was that Yaz got up to bat with 2 outs down 1 in game 7 of the 1975 World Series. A big hit there would have been huge. Sadly he flied out weakly to CF. He had a good series in '75. I've never knocked Yaz. He doesn't deserve it. I don't see the purpose in trying to label a person clutch or unclutch based on tiny scattered sample sizes.

Actually, HanRam has had a few bad years scattered over his career, It should not have been a a big surprise.

If we can replace HanRam's $22M with Travis and Pablo's $19M with Devers, we'll be in great shape to keep more of our stars before or when they reach free agency. If we get really lucky, and all three of our top prospects come through at a high level, then Groome can fill first Pom's role and then Porcello's or Sale, if we can't afford both. Imagine if they all do great AND we can keep everybody but Pom: Sale, Price, Porcello, Groome, Erod-Wright Kimbrel, Thronburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross 1) Beni LF 2) Travis 1B 3) Betts RF 4) Bogey SS 5) JBJ CF 6) Devers 3B 7) Pedey 2B 8) Dalbec DH 9) Swi-Vaz C