moonslav59

I'm glad Buch is gone, even with all our starter injuries. The $13M will come in handy.

Kelly & Barnes have oodles of potential, but I still believe our pen will prove to be our weakest link. Maybe not "weak" but "weakest" (least strong area).

I'm not worried. So far, JBJ has been extremely streaky over his short and interrupted ML career. I'd rather have him hot, when it counts.

Moon I'd leave your RHPs lineup the way it is. The minor adjustment I've made on your LHPs lineup is my compromise to Kimmi. The line-ups I listed were not my choices, but they look pretty good. They were a response to Kimmi's "optimal line-up" comment. The line-up were based on the broad assumption that the numbers I provided (an average between overall and lefty-righty splits over the past 2 years combined with adjustments upward made to HanRam and Pablo due to their 2015 numbers) were what were to be used. The assumption, which of course can never be made confidently, was that the numbers I listed were what a manager would go by to construct a line-up. I basically put the two best OBP guys up 1-2 and then put players in order of OPS from best to worst in the 3 to 9 slots. My own line-up template might look like this: Vs RHPs: LF Beni 2B Pedey RF Betts DH Ramirez CF JBJ SS Bogey 3B Sandy 1B Moreland C Leon (I might flip Sandy & Bogey, if Sandy shows life.) vs LHPs (until Beni shows he can hit lefties well enough to lead off...): SS Bogey 2B Pedey RF Betts 1B Ramirez DH Young LF Beni CF JBJ 3B Rutledge (or Holt) C Leon If Moreland can show he can hit lefties better than JBJ (or even Beni), I might keep HanRam at DH vs LHPs and play Young in LF and Beni in CF.

Not too bad. I'd move JBJ up vs RHPs and Pablo down, but it's not bad.

I didn't need to see anything Sale does this ST'ing to know he is going to be enjoyable to watch. We got Chris "Freakin' Sale!!!!

He hit over .900 in 2015 and 2016 ST'ings.

He da man!

I think the whole "comfort" thing is overblown. I do think some players could be affected by being jerked around wildly, but minor movements or lefty-righty slot swaps are not as upsetting as many seem to feel it is. One thing that makes constructing an "optimal line-up" is deciding what data or combination of data to use. Do you use strict overall numbers (career, last year, last 2-3 years?), or lefty righty splits, or batter vs specific pitcher numbers (with significant sample sizes involved, which is rare), or numerous other factors including hot or cold streaks. It's easy to conclude that every person views which of these is more important differently. I, for one, probably view lefty-righty splits as more important than JF and many posters. I'm not trying to claim I know more than JF or that I am right and he is wrong. I realize I could be wrong on my views of player comfort with more consistent batting slots, and that "comfort" might be more influential than lefty-right numbers or other factors. My own philosophy is that the lefty-righty-lefty line-up construction is over-used. I'd try to put the highest OBP guys up 1-2-3 with the guy up 3rd having more power than 1-2, but I'd rely on lefty-righty splits about equally with overall numbers (last 2-3 years mostly but not in a vacuum). So with my philosophy oversimplified, I might mostly take the average between lefty-righty splits and overall numbers over the last two years to guide my line-up creation methodology. Here's a look at this over simplified data; 2015-2016 average between lefty-righty split and overall numbers with an adjustment made to HanRam & Pablo due to their outlier 2015 season: vs RHPs Betts .357/.510/.867 J B J .347/.501/.848 Pedey .367/.447/.814 Ramirez (.329/.457/.786) adjusted to (.345/.475/.820) Pablo .302/.340/.642 (adujsted to .335/.440/.775) Bogey .347/.428/.775 Moreland.316/.458/.764 Young .306/.428/.734 Holt .336/.387/.723 Leon .329/.384/.713 Vazq .264/.293/.557 vs LHPs: Young .367/.525/.892 Ramirez .343/.518/.861 (adjusted to .350/.530/.880) Betts .342/.503/.845 Bogey .383/.454/.837 Pedey .375/.443/.818 Moreland .309/.440/.749 Leon .331/.409/.740 Vazq .324/.384/.708 Holt .347/.356/.703 Pablo .266/.346/.612 (adjusted to .275/.355/.630) Beni's sample sizes are too small, but I'll project: vs RHPs: .360/.460/.820 vs LHPs: .335/.435/.770 So, going by just these numbers, the "optimal line-up" guide might look like this: vs RHP: 1) Beni .370 OBP 2) Pedey .367 OBP 3) Betts .867 OPS 4) JBJ .848 OPS 5) Ramirez .820 OPS 6) Bogey .775 OPS 7) Sandoval .775 OPS 8) Moreland .764 OPS 9) S Leon .713 OPS vs LHPs 1) Bogey .383 OBP 2) Pedey .375 OBP 3) Young .892 OPS 4) Ramirez .880 OPS 5) Betts .845 OPS 6) JBJ .781 OPS 7) Beni .770 OPS 8) Leon .740 OPS 9) Holt .703 OPS or Rutledge Is this "optimal"?

I was speaking to ST'ing numbers and data. Of course ST'ing improves conditioning, sharpens mechanics and skills and are sometimes observable, but players often look lost in ST'ing then start off the season on fire and vice versa. I just don't pay much attention to small sample size ST'ing numbers that are not all against true ML talent.

From MLBTR... Latest On David Price By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2017 at 7:48pm CDT Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski provided an update on the health of key lefty David Price, as Evan Drellich of CSNNE.com reports. While the club’s top baseball executive emphasized that there’s still no clear timeline, Drellich explains that the current trajectory makes it seem unlikely that Price will be available before the calendar flips to May. Price has been dealing with a somewhat nebulous elbow issue, though he has already been cleared of the need for surgery. Today’s update comes amid continued uncertainty — publicly, at least — regarding Price’s outlook, and as the organization continues to looking to bolster their depth The club is obviously taking the long view here, with Price set to play an important role in 2017 and for many years beyond. While Dombrowski said that he believes the team “could have pushed [Price] a little bit further at this point,” he stressed the need “to take our time” with the veteran southpaw. That said, the broader news seems to be positive. Dombrowski said he believes that Price “will be fine, based upon what the doctors have told me [and] what David feels.” Though it’s still not quite clear what caused the elbow discomfort, Dombrowski said he suspects that Price was throwing hard early on, owing to offseason workouts that “really loosened up his hip” and left him working “free and easy.” As for the next steps, that remains unclear. But the team could get some answers tomorrow, when Price is slated to be examined by the club’s head orthopedist, Dr. Peter Asnis. “So based on that, on how he feels, what the next phase will become and when that initiates more throwing with some intensity, I don’t have that start date,” said manager John Farrell.

You also have to adjust for park setting. We should score more than most teams even with an equal offense. (We should also allow more runs, if equal.

We benched him last spring, so I don't think a platoon would be a big slap in his face, besides, he knows he sucks vs lefties. Why else would he try to tinker with giving up switch-hitting?

Pablo sucks vs LHPs. I've showed the numbers over the last 3-4 years. He's the league's worst hitter vs LHPs in some sample scenarios and bottom 5 in about all of them. Holt actually hasd a better OPS vs LHPs over his career. Rutledge bats RH'd and I have him above Holt & Hernandez. Hernandez has been over .700 vs LHPs in recent years in the minors. Pablo should not start vs a LH'd starter. Is that enough?

Not much, really, and that's why ST'ing has very little value in any context, except to see if a player has recovered from a previous injury.

It's nice to see all the love pouring out for Marco. I've always been very high on this kid. I had hoped his SS defense would improve more than it has, since 2B is locked up longer than SS and 3B.

I don't think ST'ing numbers mean all that much in any context, except to reveal if a questionable player is healthy or not.

I saw the logic in going for offense that year and thinking the pitchers available in the following year's FA market were much better, but I still think our biggest need was SP'ing. I know Scherzer cost a ton, but he was a better option that HanRam & Pablo combined.... maybe Scherzer & Valbuena would have worked better. Signing both was a clear mistake at the outset. HanRam seemed like a good contract based on projections. Pablo was just plain gross overpay for a declining talent. I'm not sure we could have afforded Scherzer and HanRam.

I have no big beef with JF over line-up choices, but my own personal preference is to move guys up or down based on splits a little more than JF does. I really think Young needs to bat no lower than 5th vs LHPs. 6th is okay, I guess, but the guy is one of MLB's best hitters vs lefties. Last year, he had 27 PAs in the 1-5 slots, 49 in the 6th slot, 114 in the 7th slot and 37 in the 8th or 9 slots. Granted, he started 33 games vs a RH'd starter and only 20 vs a LH'd starter, so these numbers are not as bad as they look. Last year, we faced 37 LH'd starters. Young was injured for some of them, but this year, assuming good health, I'd like to see Young get 37 starts vs LHPs and maybe just 0-15 vs RHPs (to cover injuries only). When he does start vs lefties, bat him 5th. I also think Bogey's career sample size is large enough to make the determination that he hits LHPs much better than RHPs and should be slotted differently based on the numbers: .847 vs LHPs (.800 when a lefty starts) .717 vs RHPs (.728 when a RH'd starter pitches) We should avoid playing Pablo and Moreland vs LHPs. My guess is, JF will start Pablo vs LHPs to begin the season. I wouldn't. He will probably use a Moreland-Young platoon at 1B (Moreland)/DH (Young) with HanRam playing FT at DH vs RHPs and 1B vs LHPs. This seems like a perfect set-up to keep HanRam fresh at 1B, so when we play in NL parks, he'll be ready vs LHPs or RHPs at 1B. Young can spell JBJ and Beni in the OF vs some LHPs, but I'd prefer Holt or Selsky in the line-up vs LHPs over Moreland. If we ever end up with Leon and Swihart as our 1-2 catchers, I'd avoid the personal caddy plan and go with a lefty - righty platoon. Leon is about a hundred points better vs LHPs, and Swihart looks better vs RHPs (by about 50 points). Vaz is about 80 points better vs LHPs, so I guess one could say the same with a Swi-Vaz tandem. Swi and Vaz have almost identical numbers vs LHPs in small sample sizes.

Me too, as well as HanRam, but Pablo much more so. I wonder how signing just hanRam to play 3B would have worked out.

I never said "we should have done nothing", but I am saying it was a viable option. My position was to get a serviceable 5th starter or go for an ace (like Sale or Quintana)... not overpay for something in between. I'd have preferred nothing over the trade we made, and I made that very clear at the time, and when we had the chance to reverse the trade after the trade deadline was past. That is proof that I preferred nothing over this trade. It does not mean doing nothing was my first choice. I posted many times my ideas of what kind of trade I preferred. I'm not sure the CWS were ready for a big trade last summer, and I guess we'll never know, but I think they'd have made the trade with Espi instead of Kopech (or maybe with both going to Chicago with Basabe and Diaz staying here). I actually liked Pomeranz and was happy he had 2.5 years of team control, but I still hated the trade more out of my view that trading a guy like Espi should only occur as part of a larger package to get an ace- not a guy with just a few months of great pitching.

I still think the 15-20 extra PAs per slot in the order is enough to make a bigger difference than you make it out to be. I believe your numbers, but a few runs here and there can make the difference between making the playoffs or not. Maybe it's not as big of a deal as many make it out to be, and the topic is debated much more than it should be, but I still think a manager should do everything he can to improve the chances of scoring more runs or allowing less runs scored against us. Even a little bit can make a big difference.

I'm not so sure Kendrick, Johnson, Owens and Elias are even bottom tier (16 or worse) 7 through 10 starters in MLB. Not many teams have quality deeper than starter 4 or 5. We have maybe one of MLB's best 6th starter (if healthy) and 7 through 10 are probably pretty close to other teams.

Again, it's NOT AFTER THE FACT. I despised the trade from the first minute.

This from SB Nation... 12/2016 6) Marco Hernandez, INF, Grade B-: Age 24, originally signed by Cubs out of Dominican Republic, traded to Red Sox in 2014; hit .309/.343/.444 in 223 at-bats in Triple-A then .294/.357.373 in 51 major league at-bats spread over five separate recalls in ’16; has hit very well for two years, with a .305/.330/.454 mark in Double-A/Triple-A in ’15; line drive hitter with doubles power can surprise with his pop; tools fit best at second base but workable at other positions; projects as super-utility type with better-than-normal bat in the role; doesn’t get as much attention as other Boston prospects but should not be under-estimated. ETA 2017.