moonslav59

I was hopeful we could get by with just 6 starters. It's too bad Pom was not ready to take Price's place.

With opening day just around the corner, and the roster taking shape, it's time for Part II. (Part I reference: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17991-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-I ) Here's my Red Sox positional depth chart (assuming 100% healthy): C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart (AAA), Butler (AAA) 1B: Moreland (vs RHPs)/ Ramirez (vs LHPs- DH vs RHPs), Travis (AAA), Craig? 2B: Pedroia, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Rutledge 3B: Sandoval, Hernandez (AAA), Rutledge, Holt SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Marrero (AAA) LF: Benintendi, Young (DH vs LHPs), Slesky (AAA), Moreland, Brentz (Trade/DFA) CF: Bradley, (Beni from LF), Holt RF: Betts, Young, Holt, Moreland SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Pomeranz (long relief) AAA: Kendrick, Johnson, Elias, Owens, Velazquez, Haviland RP: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Ross, Hembree AAA: Barnes, Scott, Abad (Traded or DFA'd), Workman, Olmos, Martin, Ysla, N Ramirez Budget: cots has our CB payroll at $179.6M, which leaves us with about $15.3M to spend this summer to fill any needs. My choice of line-ups: vs RHPs: 1) Benintendi LF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Betts RF 4) Ramirez DH 5) Bradley CF 6) Bogaerts SS 7) Sanddoval 3B 8) Moreland 1B 9) Leon C vs LHPs 1) Bogaerts SS 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Ramirez 1B 4) Betts RF 5) Young DH 6) Benintendi LF 7) Bradley CF 8) Rutledge 3B 9) Leon - Vaz C My projections, again with 100% health (PA- Player OBP/SLG/OPS): C: 300 Leon .320/.360/.680 200 Vaz .300/.360/.660 150 Swihart .330/.380/.710 1B: 500 Moreland .325/.435/.760 200 + 450 DH Ramirez .360/.490/.850 2B: 650 Pedroia .365/.415/.790 50 + 50 3B + 50 SS + 50 OF Holt .330/.370/.700 3B: 500 Sandoval .340/.435/.775 150 Rutledge .320/.360/.680 50 +50 SS +50 2B Hernandez .330/.390/.720 SS: 650 Bogaerts .350/.480/.830 LF: 550+ 50 CF Benintendi .365/.465/.830 150 + 250 DH Young .350/.450/.800 CF: 600 Bradley .345/.475/.820 RF: 700 Betts .400/.550/.950 Starters (GS- player- ERA team record in starts) 34 Sale 2.90 24-10 33 Price 3.20 20-13 33 Porcello 3.30 20-13 24 Rodrigues 3.90 14-10 24 Wright 4.00 14-10 14 Pomeranz 4.10 8-6 Team: 100-62 I welcome your thoughts, projections and ideas.

When we traded for Hanrahan, I said Holt was going to be the "jewel of the trade". I like Holt as a second baseman, but we have one of those inked to a long term deal. I value his ability to play 7 positions without being an embarrassment, but I have always believed he could be a starter for 5-10 teams in MLB or be a Zobrist lite. To me, that's not "undervaluing" him or "dislike"; it's just a realization that his value elsewhere is probably more than his value here in Boston, especially since our bench has improved over the last couple of years with the additions of Young, Hernandez, and the emergence of Swihart as a possible non catcher. I'm not for handing Holt away for someone like Abad. If we can't get someone good for him, then I'd be happy keeping him. In short, it's not a dislike for Holt, it's really me always being very high on Hernandez and Young. I just can't spread my love evenly.

What's the start date on Price's 60 day DL?

We could go with 11 pitchers to start the season, since we have the day off. Then, when Pom comes back, we'll send Selsky or Marco down.

The problem is that's the position we most likely will need him to play other than maybe 1B to start the season. Holt's bat abs BAbip is not my concern. He's just not all that good on defense anywhere. This whole "adequate at 7 positions" is over-valued. He's third string or worse everywhere but maybe 2B, where personally, I'd play Marco over Brock.

I do too. I was equally pumped on Kopech despite attitude concerns. I was highest on Espi, but he was farther away. I'm super high on Groome. I don't think it's the "homer" in me.

Wow! Geo the optimist!

With Owens, Johnson and others struggling, and Kopech, Espi and others traded away, there's a lot of hope pinned one this one guy: Groome. I'm hopeful but scared of where we'll be, if he fizzles out..

I get that, but now that we should no longer have a DH only DH (once HR can play 1B again), that value is slightly diminished. I might also argue that the term "acceptable level" is debatable. Over the past few years Holt has been the number one sub at several positions. Now, it is arguable he's the number one sub at any position, except maybe 2B. That has diminished his value to us, not because he has decline, because he hasn't, but because we have better options at 3B (Rutledge & Hernandez and eventually Devers), SS (Hernandez), maybe 2B (Hernandez), OF (Young and maybe Selsky), and 1B (Moreland/HR and mayeb eventually Pablo moves to 1B to make way for Devers).

Maybe missing a month will help Price do better in October.

I thought 2B was the one position Holt was a plus defender. I'll take Hernandez at SS over Holt, Rutledge and Hernandez at 3B over Holt, and Young or Selsky in the OF over Holt. I still think trading Holt would get us a decent RP'er and open the door for Hernandez and Selsky (and maybe Swihart eventually) to show they can shine on the big stage.

Who are you to not doubt everything?

Great post, notin.

I think it was a PTBNL or Cash, but I never heard anything afterwards.

I have often advocated for a 3 or 4 or even 5 for 1 deal, but I think we may have gotten out of hand: Deals since Jan 2015: Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz for C Sale Shaw, Dubon & Pennington for Thornburg Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje for Kimbrel Two-for-Two deals: Miley & Aro for Smith & Elias The one-on-one deals: Espi for Pom Abad for Light Doubront for Marco Hernandez Ranaudo for R Ross

Shaw, Dubon & Pennington for Thornburg.

Pablo should play 1B at some point in his career, but too late now to think of that. Holt has played 1B before. Swihart might have been the best choice, but he's on a catcher - only plan.

True, if only "clutch" existed!

If you look at it on a proportionate basis, 1.89 is about 55% of 3.54 and 3.38. So a comparable number for 2016 might be more like 2.30. Here's a comp: from 1999-2003, Pedro had a 2.10 ERA. The closest other was RJ at 2.66 and then Mussina at 3.58! The AL ERA in that time was between 4.47 and 4.98 for an average of about 4.60. 2.10 is about 45% of 6.65! Pedro's 2000 ERA+ of 291 was the best in MLB since 1880. He also had the 9th best alltime ERA+ at 243 in 1999. All-in-all, he had 5 of the best 36 in MLB history (5 of the top 18 since 1930)! Bob Gibson placed 7th in 1968, but had no other top 220 seasons.

In 1968, Gibson started 34 games and completed 28 (13 were shutouts!). He had a 1.12 ERA and 0.853 WHIP. He also had 28 CGs in 1969!

Agreed. Nobody comes close to the iron men of eras past.

I was thinking warm Mountain Dew.

soxprospects.com on Groome.... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/03/notes-from-field-jason-groome-debuts-on.html

Pretty incredible numbers, even for a small sample size. I'm not trying to lessen the greatness of this feat, but a little context is needed. The NL ERA those years were 3.54 and 3.38, so while 1.89 is amazing, it was only about 1.50 better than the regular season NL ERA those years. Last year's NL ERA was 4.17, so a comparable modern number might be a 2.67 ERA.