moonslav59

Nothing is definite abour Pablo, but I actually like your line-up. I'm more "wait and see" with Beni vs LHPs before sticking him in a top 3 slot. I hear the "consistency" and "comfort" arguments, but my guess is Beni will be thrilled to be anywhere in the top 6.

Pretty amazing to be able to still be able to put that 4 out there with a $30M pitcher on the DL.

I saw a lot of defensive improvement from 2014 to 2015, and his UZR/150 went from -3.7 to +0.9. I was very happy that it appeared he was going to become a plus defender over the long run. However, last year he looked ho-hum. He wasn't bad, but it seemed to me, he looked like he took a baby step backwards. His UZR/150 went down to -2.8. He Defensive Runs Saved went from -9 to -1 to -10 over the last 3 seasons. Inside Edge shows that although he made more "unlikely plays" than ever before (29%), his "likely plays" made went from 89% to 64% over the last 2 years. There's still plenty of time to turn it back around and get better on defense, but I doubt he ever gets to top 6 or 7. With his bat, top 15 would be good enough. The whole moving Bogey argument is moot right now, because we have no clearly better defensive SS other than Marrero, and he does not belong on the 25 man roster, let alone starting everyday. If we acquired a decent hitting and great fielding SS, then let's talk. Marco is not a plus defender at SS and neither is Holt.

True enough, but it seems like the younger generation of good hitting SSs is growing. More of the better hitting 3Bmen are getting older (Beltre, Donaldson, Turner...). Except for Asrubal Cabrera, the top 9 SSs in OPS are under 28.

Yup, and I'm hopeful when we spend that money saved, people will like who we got better than Buch.

Word was he adjusted his back in 2015. That's the year he had an incredible hot streak. Maybe he's gotten away from what worked and needs further adjustment or tinkering, but it's just ST'ing and it's a tiny sample size.

True, but if his SS defense is not a plus, and his 3B defense could eventually be a plus, it might tip the balance. I used to be a strong advocate for moving Bogey to 3B, but that was when we had better defensive options at SS, and scouts were talking about Bogey's likelihood of not sticking at SS. Bogey improved on his defense enough for me to drop my crusade, but I think he took a baby step backwards last year, so I'm still open to the idea, but first we need to have a clearly better defensive SS. BTW, league SSs had an OPS only about 50 points worse than the average league 3Bmen. It's not like the old days anymore.

Context. Both Bogey and JBJ are on the rise, so counting their career numbers may overemphasize their slower starts to their career, while Pablo has been on one of MLB's most constant and sharp declines. Over the last 2 years, JBJ has a .348 OBP vs RHP and Bogey .339. I agree with not putting Bogey in the top 4 or 5 vs RHPs, and I don't think putting Pablo up 2nd is a bad idea. I just think we can do better. Pablo has a .341 OBP since 2012 but .314 since 2015. I still think Beni-Pedey are best 1-2 vs RHPs.

Maybe 15-20 starts. Maybe mostly bad starts. Too many maybes was his downfall.

He made adjustments in 2015. Maybe he doesn't need to make more alterations, he just has to get more comfortable with the ones he made back then.

Personally, I don't think he will remain a streaky hitter. He may still have some hot streaks, but I think we'll see more consistency when he's not hot. I don't see why we can't expect at least the same overall numbers since August 2015 to now. Over .800 and GG like defense in CF. If he has a full season of .700 here and there, I'll still take it.

Finally, someone agrees with me on Holt. It's not that I don't value him; I do. I just think his value to another team is higher, and that is the basis for making a good trade.

I'm glad more people are showing more love for Marco. I hope he can continue to shine.

I'm super excited to see what Beni can do for us. I'm not prepared to lobby for him to be in the top 4 slots vs LHPs, but I'm fine with the idea vs righties.

The biggest mistake that managers make in constructing their line ups is in undervaluing the #2 spot. The old traditional "put a player that makes contact up second" never made that much sense to me. Just give me more high OBP.

I'm glad Buch is gone, even with all our starter injuries. The $13M will come in handy.

Kelly & Barnes have oodles of potential, but I still believe our pen will prove to be our weakest link. Maybe not "weak" but "weakest" (least strong area).

I'm not worried. So far, JBJ has been extremely streaky over his short and interrupted ML career. I'd rather have him hot, when it counts.

Moon I'd leave your RHPs lineup the way it is. The minor adjustment I've made on your LHPs lineup is my compromise to Kimmi. The line-ups I listed were not my choices, but they look pretty good. They were a response to Kimmi's "optimal line-up" comment. The line-up were based on the broad assumption that the numbers I provided (an average between overall and lefty-righty splits over the past 2 years combined with adjustments upward made to HanRam and Pablo due to their 2015 numbers) were what were to be used. The assumption, which of course can never be made confidently, was that the numbers I listed were what a manager would go by to construct a line-up. I basically put the two best OBP guys up 1-2 and then put players in order of OPS from best to worst in the 3 to 9 slots. My own line-up template might look like this: Vs RHPs: LF Beni 2B Pedey RF Betts DH Ramirez CF JBJ SS Bogey 3B Sandy 1B Moreland C Leon (I might flip Sandy & Bogey, if Sandy shows life.) vs LHPs (until Beni shows he can hit lefties well enough to lead off...): SS Bogey 2B Pedey RF Betts 1B Ramirez DH Young LF Beni CF JBJ 3B Rutledge (or Holt) C Leon If Moreland can show he can hit lefties better than JBJ (or even Beni), I might keep HanRam at DH vs LHPs and play Young in LF and Beni in CF.

Not too bad. I'd move JBJ up vs RHPs and Pablo down, but it's not bad.

I didn't need to see anything Sale does this ST'ing to know he is going to be enjoyable to watch. We got Chris "Freakin' Sale!!!!

He hit over .900 in 2015 and 2016 ST'ings.

He da man!

I think the whole "comfort" thing is overblown. I do think some players could be affected by being jerked around wildly, but minor movements or lefty-righty slot swaps are not as upsetting as many seem to feel it is. One thing that makes constructing an "optimal line-up" is deciding what data or combination of data to use. Do you use strict overall numbers (career, last year, last 2-3 years?), or lefty righty splits, or batter vs specific pitcher numbers (with significant sample sizes involved, which is rare), or numerous other factors including hot or cold streaks. It's easy to conclude that every person views which of these is more important differently. I, for one, probably view lefty-righty splits as more important than JF and many posters. I'm not trying to claim I know more than JF or that I am right and he is wrong. I realize I could be wrong on my views of player comfort with more consistent batting slots, and that "comfort" might be more influential than lefty-right numbers or other factors. My own philosophy is that the lefty-righty-lefty line-up construction is over-used. I'd try to put the highest OBP guys up 1-2-3 with the guy up 3rd having more power than 1-2, but I'd rely on lefty-righty splits about equally with overall numbers (last 2-3 years mostly but not in a vacuum). So with my philosophy oversimplified, I might mostly take the average between lefty-righty splits and overall numbers over the last two years to guide my line-up creation methodology. Here's a look at this over simplified data; 2015-2016 average between lefty-righty split and overall numbers with an adjustment made to HanRam & Pablo due to their outlier 2015 season: vs RHPs Betts .357/.510/.867 J B J .347/.501/.848 Pedey .367/.447/.814 Ramirez (.329/.457/.786) adjusted to (.345/.475/.820) Pablo .302/.340/.642 (adujsted to .335/.440/.775) Bogey .347/.428/.775 Moreland.316/.458/.764 Young .306/.428/.734 Holt .336/.387/.723 Leon .329/.384/.713 Vazq .264/.293/.557 vs LHPs: Young .367/.525/.892 Ramirez .343/.518/.861 (adjusted to .350/.530/.880) Betts .342/.503/.845 Bogey .383/.454/.837 Pedey .375/.443/.818 Moreland .309/.440/.749 Leon .331/.409/.740 Vazq .324/.384/.708 Holt .347/.356/.703 Pablo .266/.346/.612 (adjusted to .275/.355/.630) Beni's sample sizes are too small, but I'll project: vs RHPs: .360/.460/.820 vs LHPs: .335/.435/.770 So, going by just these numbers, the "optimal line-up" guide might look like this: vs RHP: 1) Beni .370 OBP 2) Pedey .367 OBP 3) Betts .867 OPS 4) JBJ .848 OPS 5) Ramirez .820 OPS 6) Bogey .775 OPS 7) Sandoval .775 OPS 8) Moreland .764 OPS 9) S Leon .713 OPS vs LHPs 1) Bogey .383 OBP 2) Pedey .375 OBP 3) Young .892 OPS 4) Ramirez .880 OPS 5) Betts .845 OPS 6) JBJ .781 OPS 7) Beni .770 OPS 8) Leon .740 OPS 9) Holt .703 OPS or Rutledge Is this "optimal"?

I was speaking to ST'ing numbers and data. Of course ST'ing improves conditioning, sharpens mechanics and skills and are sometimes observable, but players often look lost in ST'ing then start off the season on fire and vice versa. I just don't pay much attention to small sample size ST'ing numbers that are not all against true ML talent.