moonslav59

His bat may make up for a subpar arm when compared to Holt and Rutledge. It's not like either of those two are wonders on defense at 3B either.

Maybe, but I'm not sure about Beni's arm in RF.

My opinions are not based solely on these numbers. I watch every pitch of every Sox game, and I play extra close attention to SS defense. I saw a clear decline in Bogey's defense from 2015 to 2016. He was not bad, but he was not good either. He was far from "very good", in my opinion in 2016. IMO, Bogey's defense ranges from fair to decent at best. If someone said he as just "good", I'd be okay with that. "Very good" should mean at least top 6 or 8. Maybe we just view these terms differently, and we are just arguing semantics. I tend to use comparative analysis when using superlatives. Bogey's certainly a much better fielder than almost everyone on the planet, but when compared to the top 30 MLB SSs, he's probably ranked about 13th to 20th on SS defense from what I've observed combined with the data I value. If someone wants to call him 10th to 12th, I would ask them if the truly think he's better than which of these guys: 2014-2016 UZR/150 20.2 Lindor 19.8 Simmons 15.6 Russell 13.5 Hardy 12.7 Cozart 11.7 Crawford (To me, there's no way anyone can say he is top 6) 7.9 Seager 7.9 Iggy 6.3 Galvis 5.4 Hechavarria 5.0 Tulo (I cant's see a reasonable argument to say Bogey is to 10 or 11.) From here down, it's a close call: 2.8 A Escobar 1.7 Peralta 0.5 Gregorius (surprising low number here) 0.1 Lowrie (surprisingly better than I'd have imagined) 0.0 W Flores -0.1 D Espinosa -0.8 E Escobar -1.3 A Amarista -1.4 Castro -1.6 Bogey

I don't think it's close. Marco is not a plus defensive SS, and to me, to move Bogey to 3B would only happen if we had a plus-plus defensive SS. If Pablo fizzles out, I think we first try a Pablo-Rutledge or Pablo-Holt platoon at 3B, then if he still struggles, we'll go with maybe a Hernandez-Rutledge platoon with Holt getting time at 3B as well. I'm not sure how long we go with this. We may need to make a trade, if this plan fails. I do not see Marrero ever being part of any long term solution.

I think the Sox go to Rutledge, or Holt in the near term but if they need a 3b for an extended period of time then I could see them going outside the organization and bring a guy in. If Hernandez keeps hitting well in AAA, I think they'd call him up for a shot before trading for a 3B rental. They obviously wouldn't break the bank for some because Devers is getting closer but I have a hard time seeing any other option long term in 2017 if Pablo isn't the answer. Todd Frazier has been mentioned as a possible mid season rental for 3B.

Brentz is out of options and will be gone or on the DL (phantom or real) by opening day. I don't see Holt as a long term first back-up at any position, except maybe 2B. With Hernandez likely starting in AAA, Holt would be the shorter term first "solution" at SS, but I think Rutledge will see more action at 3B than Holt. I also do not see Young playing CF over Beni. If JBJ sits, Beni moves to CF and Young plays RF.

Any promotion of Swihart to the catcher position will mean we go with 3 catchers or have to trade, DFA or DL Vaz or Leon. The first two are NOT *easy decisions to make. * edited

These are tiny sample sizes consisting of several PAs vs minor league pitchers. Remember, one's most recent 40 ABs is not a good indicator of what is to come over the next 200-60 PAs.

This from MLBTR... Considering they’re not on the Red Sox’s 40-man roster, outfielder Rusney Castillo and first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig are already facing uphill battles to achieve relevance in Boston. Moreover, their onerous contracts make even short promotions to the majors unlikely, notes WEEI’s John Tomase (via colleague Rob Bradford). Castillo, for instance, would cost the Red Sox $56,596 per day to keep on their 25-man roster. Thus, a two-week stint with the Sox would cost $800K and push them over the luxury-tax threshold, which they’ve been careful to stay under. Castillo and Craig have upped their stock this spring, writes Bradford, but the team unsurprisingly sent the pair back to Triple-A on Sunday. They’ll combine to make $21.5MM in the minors this season. How can $800K "push them over the luxury tax threshold"? I thought we had millions to spare after dumping Buch.

Welcome back. Good to hear from you. I love our chances this year. Of course, I like them better with Price, but I like Sale much better than Price, and I thought we had a great chance this year, even before the Sale trade. All we can ask for is a great chance, then sit back and enjoy the ride and hope the magic happens another time.

I totally disagree. Even without Price, we have a top 3 AL rotation, a top 1-3 offense, a much improved defense and a top 10-12 pen. That should be a pretty definite playoff team and top 2 AL contender. Sale Porcello ERod Wright Pom is a very nice rotation.

2016: 29 SS had 750+ innings at SS 2015: 28 SS had 700+ innings at SS UZR/150 at SS 2016: Bogey placed at -2.8 2015: Bogey placed 14th at +0.9 Defensive Runs Saved at SS 2016: Bogey finsihed 27th out of 29 at -10 DRS 2015: Bogey finished 14th out of 28 at -1. 2015 + 2016 (32 SSs with 1000+ innings at SS): 17th in UZR/150 at -1.9 29th in DRS at -11 These numbers don't tell everything, and Bogey can still get better, but I think the numbers support the argument that he is, at best, average or slightly belwo average on defense at SS. He's third in SS WAR since 2015, so I have no beef with Bogey remaining our SS, at least until we acquire a better defensive SS who can hit better than Pablo, Holt and Hernandez at 3B.

I meant defensively. I would not call him "very good" on defense at SS. He was maybe average in 2015 but slipped a little last year on defense. Overall, He's clearly a big plus. (I was a big advocate of moving Bogey to 3B when we had Iggy and Marrero had higher hopes. Now, I see no reason to move him to 3B with the roster we currently have.)

He may be below .650 or even do as badly as the 500's, but we know he's very good defensively, and there's just as much reason to expect .650 plus as .650 minus.

We may need Pom to come through, if Price doesn't recover.

This from MLBTR.... Guardians righty Carlos Carrasco could begin the year in extended spring training as he looks to build up his arm strength after a bout with elbow soreness, writes Terry Pluto of cleveland.com. The Guardians have two off days in the first two weeks of the season, which would enable them to be patient with Carrasco and not have to use five starters immediately.

If we're winning, and the pitchers are doing well when Leon catches, I think he'll be given a longer leash than one month- assuming he hits below .650 in April.

If I had to bet, I'd say it was more "fluke" than any sign of what was to come, but on the other hand, I think 2016 probably means we shouldn't expect .550 to .600 from him either. He's shown some glimpses of hitting well for significant stretches in the minors or Ven. league, so I think it's possible he can put together a hot streak in 2017 or get to a point where he's consistently .675-.725ish.

Chris Freakin Sale will be sweetness in the clubhouse and will be lifted on the shoulders of his teammates this October.

Wright has pitched well for quite some time. In 94 IP from 2014-2015, Wright had a 3.75 ERA with BOS (1.27 WHIP) His minor league numbers were between impressive and good: 2012: 2.54 (1.26) in AA & AAA 2013: 3.46 (1.44) in AAA 2014: 3.42 (1.14) in AA & AAA 2015: 5.37 (1.35) in 8 starts at AAA

JBJ's .868 OPS from the 6 slot was pretty good as well. It's hard to know if being in the 9 slot when he had his hottest streak was because he was in the nine slot or just plain luck. I like JBJ in the top 6 vs RHPs. Ninth is fine vs LHPs.

I get it. His career was a long stretch of sporadic play with tiny sample sizes spread out over many years. Together they showed a very weak hitter, and I'm not going to deny he may still prove to continue being a very weak hitter. That's why I'm glad we have Vaz and Swi to fall back on or platoon with Leon. I will add that Leon has had a couple of hot stretches throughout his minor league career: 2012 (231 PAs) .856 OPS 2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan League) .938 OPS So, in 3 of his last 5 seasons, he's seen a hot streak. His .692 OPS in 193 PAs in AAA in 2014 was not god-awful either

1st half WAR 2.5 Pomeranz (15th in MLB) 2.1 Wright (25th in MLB)

He played his first game on June 7th. 6 weeks later, his OPS was 1.133. It was at 1.091 on August 18th (4 weeks later) He was still at .988 on September 3rd after a 5 for 11 streak. That's about 14 weeks of near 1.000 OPS ball. Yes, he went .539 in his last 85 PAs, but he was at .976 in 198 previous PAs. I'm not sure why a players last 4 weeks are weighted so heavily by some. I certainly get the idea that Leon is not going to end up with an .800 plus OPS this year, and he may very well end up at .600 or even worse, but there's a also a good chance he's near .725, and with his superior defense (to Swihart's), it's no wonder to me, he's making the opening day roster and starting game one.

I like our chances BETTER with Sale pitching twice in every playoff series. Our top 3 stacks up pretty well with any other MLB team. Here's how fangraphs projects top 3 starters by WAR: BOS 13.1 (Sale 5.5, Porcello 3.8 & Price 3.8) They also have Pomeranz at 2.3 LAD 13.0 (Kershaw 7.4, Hill 2.8 & Maeda 2.8) Nobody else over 1.5 WSH 13.0 (Scherzer 5.7, Strasburg 4.4 & Gonzalez 2.9) Joe Ross at 2.5 and Roark at 1.9 CLE 13.0: (Kluber 5.2, Carrasco 4.4 & Salazar 3.4) Nobody else over 1.7 NYM 12.7 (Syndergaard 5.6, deGrom 3.9 & Matz 3.2) They also have Harvey at 2.7 SFG 12.5 (Bumgarner 5.1, Cueto 4.3 & Samardzija 3.1) M Moore at 2.3 Cubs 11.9 (Lester 4.5, Arrieta 4.1 & Hendricks 3.3) Lackey at 2.9 I think saying "maybe" top 3 is justifiable.