moonslav59

It's hard to imagine us trying to get JD, missing out, and then signing nobody else instead. 99% chance we sign someone significant.

I'd be worried, if other teams were signing top players left and right, but nobody is signing.

It might mean 6 pitchers and Moreland got hurt.

Exactly. There's no way we chose to reset the luxury tax this year only to go over by $5M by signing Moreland.

Hoping is fine, but signing JD to $25M put's us over the luxury tax by $30M. We'd be over $227M on the luxury tax table. Going over $237M would kick in severe penalties. I hate to dash anyone's hopes (except your hope for Hosmer), but we will not sign two big cost free agents this winter.

Lost seasons. Playing hurt both seasons. Did poorly vs both handed pitchers- but better vs RHPs. ...........2015/2017 vs LHPs: .710/ .679 vs RHPs: .720/ .769

HRam vs LHPs (should be a great platoon) 1.097 in 2016 .869 in 2014 1.142 in 2013 .897 career vs LHPs .838 career vs RHPs

lol

From soxprospects.com http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-castillo_29.html Mexican Pacific League Hector Velazquez did not appear in a game this past week as his team, Mayos de Navajoa, dropped the championship series four games to three. Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League Ivan De Jesus Jr. wrapped up the regular season by going 0 for 3 with a walk in the finale. Rusney Castillo (pictured) finished strong, going 2 for 3 with a pair of doubles, an RBI, and a run. In the playoffs, De Jesus Jr. appeared in all four games for Santurce, going 3 for 15 with two walks and a run scored. Castillo enjoyed a better postseason in the leadoff spot for Caguas, going 5 for 13 with a double and two RBI. Caguas won the series against Santurce three games to none.

He normally kills them. I think his injury hurt his numbers vs LHPs. I'm willing to see if the surgery helped (or not).

Not, if we have JD or Duda. Part of the reason he might be doing so well, is that he only starts vs LHPs and some RHPs he has done well against in the past. Duda kills RHP'ers, so we'll have plenty of evidence to support the choice to play him over HRam.

That's something we can all agree on. Even if he hits .310 with 30 HRs in 475 PAs, I'd want him gone. He won't very likely repeat it in 2019. I actually said this before his decent 2016 season, "If HRam hits .300 40 110, I'd trade him after 2016, since it is likely he will not do it again."

Yes, they are. The VTek case was an exception, but he did get screwed out of a lot of money by taking Boras' advice.

We can play him this year and not let him vest. He might hit 25 HRs in 475 PAs, and we'll get something for that $22M and say good bye to next year's $22M. Just because he won't be worth $22M is not reason enough to DFA him. If he can play to the value of $5-10M, it's better to keep him and not have to pay him $22M anyways and then pray Travis does as well as he might have done.

My point is HRam is up and down. I'm not saying it's an automatic thing, but his history suggests he might still have a good year (or two) left in him over the next few years. I realize he could easily suck this year, but as long as there's a chance he can do well, I'm not going to DFA him until at least the end of ST'ing. It's not like we have ready and able prospects beating down the 40 man roster door. HRam just turned 34. Many players that age and older have had big years. HRam's recent history: 2013: 1.040 OPS (in 304 PAs) 2014: .817 2015: .717 (played injured) 2016: .866 2017: .750 (played hurt)

I haven't given up on HRam. He's been almost a total one good year/one bad year player over the last 6 years or so. Even if he wasn't getting paid $22M, I'd want a look-see in ST'ing to see how the surgery worked (or not). There's no hurry to DFA anyone, and I'd rather DFA Brentz, if we sign JD than HRam.

He was offered more, but turned it down. Then, Boras ended up getting him much less later.

...and especially since there is no QO penalty attached and his luxury tax cost is just $25M a year.

If Moreland gets hurt, HRam would be on track to vest. If an OF'er gets hurt, JD would play LF FT, and HRam would be on track to vest. If we sign JD and trade JBJ, HRam would be on track to vest. (I'd sign Duda in this scenario.)

Losing HRam's contract after 2018 and Pablo's after 2019 is about the only thing keeping "the window" open for 2-3 more years.

Certainly losing just one from Pom or Kimbrel does not meet the anybody's standard for the word "cliff". We lose Pablo & Porcello's contracts after 2019, so I doubt the "cliff" starts then either, but it will mean we will likely be entering our 3rd consecutive year over the luxury tax limit, meaning after 2020, we'll have to reset or face grave consequences. I'm not going to argue with those who see the cliff as beginning in 2020, but I think we can manage to extend it to 2021. If we get lucky and have a few prospects rise quickly and make major contributions, which I'd say is against the odds, we could avoid a real "cliff" and just have a short valley.

Remember, 2015 was at a cost of $12.5M. That's pretty close to what a 1.6 WAR is worth, so I'm not sure you can count that year as a "bad one". He's pitched 2 out of his 4 year big contract. One great (5.6 WAR) and one mediocre (2.0 WAR), which wasn't totally disastrous. While I don't agree with the value page on fangraphs, they have Porcello's value as being just over $70M over his 3 years in Boston. His actual contract cost has been about $54M over that time. David price has cost us $62M, so far, and he has given us a $47.6M in value. Kimbrel has given us $35M value at about a $26M cost (not counting the value of the prospects given). Pom has been great. He's given us about $28M in value at about $5M cost (not counting the value of Espinoza).

I don't disagree with anything said here. I'm not a homer Red Sox fan pining for JD. If he goes elsewhere, and we acquire someone else significant, I'll be happy. I'm racking my brain trying to figure out who those other teams are with 5 year offers on the table that might top the reported $125M the Sox offered. Yes, there's a chance JD accepts less than what we offer, and if he does nobody can really blame DD for losing out. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe other Sox fans are wrong. We've been wrong before, but with No Dodgers or Yankees in the mix, I just don't see AZ, TOR or SF going much higher than $100M/5... let alone $125M. I'll gladly admit I was wrong, if it turns out I'm wrong.

I think signing JD would squeeze HRam out of the option, unless there's an injury to Moreland, JD or an OF'er. I realize arb raises will be costly over the next few years and will alone eat up much of the departing players' contracts lost, but we may not need to add much to the roster, except to resign or replace Kimbrel and Pom in kind. Timetable on future Sox free agents: After 2018: $22M Ramirez $13M Kimbrel $8.5M Pomeranz $3.8M Joe Kelly After 2019: $20.5M Porcello $19M Pablo $13.5M C Sale ____ Bogaerts $6.5M Moreland ____ Thornburg ____ B Holt If we can pay all arb raises with HRam's salary, we can probably have enough to keep Pom OR Kimbrel. Losing one will not make us noncompetitive. If Henry does not mind keeping us over the second penalty level for a second year in a row, we can probably keep both and not go over the third penalty level. After 2019, losing Porcello and his contract might not be too bad. His money plus Sale's $13.5M could help us keep Sale. We may lose Bogey, but I think losing Pablo's contract can help us keep Bogey and pay the arb raises. It's after 2020 that keeping everybody and facing a third consecutive over the tax limit penalty will be the true reckoning time, IMO.

I've never assumed no other teams might out bid the Sox or have a current offer higher than ours on the table, but I just can't think of a team who fits the bill. One would think there'd be some sort of mentioning of another serious team. I think $125M/5 gets him, but if someone wants to offer $140M/6 and he takes it, I won't be heart-broken or upset with DD for not upping the offer.