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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Typical Sox great hope. He did have a 5.3 bWAR in 31 GS from ('21-'22) so I think the hope is justified. 3.17 ERA and 3.44 FIP- not easy to do with a 3.7 BB/9. -
The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Are there any good FAs who can play 1B and 2B, well? -
Yes, Holobetz went 6 scoreless before allowing a run in the 7th. (6 hits and 1BB in 7.) He has a 3.20 ERA with POR. Gonzales has an .806 OPS at SAL- not bad for an 18 year old who was in DSL, last year. Futrell has a 1.35 ERA with GRE after 5 IP and 1ER, last night. Arias walked twice and went 1-3 to get to .705. He's a 19 year old in A+ ball and GG caliber on D.
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I was thinking that, too. And we missed a perfect 6 innings pitched by some sh**ty pitcher, last night. The Sox need to take one game at a time, but we don't... Gio vs Gil 5.14 but 2.53 last 2 starts) Bello v Fried 3.26 but 9.00 last 3 starts, 7.20 last 6 and 6.80 last 8 starts) Crochet v Warren 4.25 but 1.61 last 4 GS TBD (May or Buehler) v Rodon 3.25 and 4.09 last 4 starts
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I've said your first paragraph more than any poster, here, including you. I'm a huge Brez supporter. I loved how he had a rotation 10-12 deep. I disliked his pen additions, but Chapman and Wilson surprised me (and others.) The Bregman signing and Crochet deal & extension sealed the deal as one of the best, if not the best, winters by a Sox GM in the 54 years I have been following them. This won't stop me from pointing out mistakes that were made. I try to provide context, when I do. (I am one of the few who defended the reasoning to the Sale trade, so I'm not the king whiner.)
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DHam has value as a PR'er and late inning 2B defense (Rafaela to CF adds there, too.) Toro had no value since the Devers trade. Addition by subtraction, as these guys should/could never see another game for the Sox in 2025: .354 Sabol .580 Casas .612 Eaton .662 Sogard .664 Campbell .672 Toro (sub .600 since Devers) .674 Mayer The only bad batters who may get significant ABs are Wong (.441) & DHam (.492.) Pitchers: 18.00 Toro 10.13 Fulmer & Stick 8.04 Houck 6.59 Hendriks maybe no more... 7.07 Hicks & I Campbell 6.75 Moran 5.56 Kelly 5.43 Buehler (no playoff starts) .
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I agree. The "much work" is not really a lot of players needed- just that the ones we get are high quality and stay healthy. Yes, Abreu should hit 30, if he ever plays FT. He's averaged about 29 per 650. With Jh Garcia climbing the ranks and Campbell, another RHB, maybe best suited for the OF, we have someone to platoon with him, if need be. I like Mayer, alot. I think he'd be fina at 2B or 3B and even SS, but health makes me shy away from slotting him into a FT role for 2026. We need to plan on no Mayer. I think Arias may push Story to 2B for 2027. I like the window we have. If we trade Duran, DHam, Sandlin & Mullins for Ryan (maybe it takes Early over Mullins) and bring back Bregman and Chapman, that could be enough, but adding to the pen would be nice, too. Last winter, I felt we could have some of our excess rotation pieces pitch from the pen, but we ended up needing all of them as starters. Next season sees the same type of set-up, and if we have less SP'er injuries, maybe it happens: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Giolito (140 IP trigger option) Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison/Fitts/Criswell and then maybe Perales and non 40 man guys like Tolle, Uberstine, Early & Clarke. Someone beside Criswell should be a nice pen piece, but adding more would be good insurance.
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The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So little power and not a plus on D. Maybe too questionable for a gamble. Plus, we need some power. -
His obsession with Duran being a better defender than Abreu is all we need to know about how serious we should take his comments. That being said, I'd be fine with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF, if we trade Abreu. Anthony in LF, but even then, Anthony in RF, Rafaela in CF and the worst defender in the OF, Duran in LF still makes more sense to me. Also, he keeps ranting about Abreu being a platoon player only, and his splits are better than Duran's were over his first couple years in the bigs, and he no longer is thought of as a platoon player, despite being pretty bad vs lefties, too, including about 150 points worse than Abreu, this season.
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The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, I'm raising money for a go fund an Alonso contract. -
The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That's a big concern, despite his age. -
Yes, that is the main and just reason. I've never liked bunting, except that doing it enough to force the infield in has real value not measured by the metrics. Players get more hits when the corner IF'ers are in.
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Yes, I agree on the lack of any true outstanding stars on the team, although Bregman would be top 10-15, had he not gotten hurt. Crochet is top 5 in pitching, but that's it. We have the top closer, so maybe 3 of the top players in MLB. That's a far cry from 2004, 2007 and 2018 but maybe not 2013. This team does have more balance than just about every other team in MLB. Calling it mediocrity is fine, but not having as many sucking players as other teams is a good thing, too. Since Devers is no longer here, Campbell is in AAA and Toro is benched, our top 9 batters are ALL ABOVE the MLB OPS of .719: (listed by most PAs) .792 Duran .729 Story (very slow start) .721 Rafaela .811 Abreu .721 Narvaez .926 Bregman .835 Anthony (will likely lead the team in PAs after 8/20) .845 Romy .827 Refsnyder One is a catcher, so we can construct a line-up with all 9 playing, once Ref comes off the IL. When you look at our top IP Pitchers and take away Dobbins, Houck & Newcomb, our top 11 pitchers are all below a 3.63 ERA, except Buehler (5.43) and Fitts (4.83 and now in AAA.) 2.43 Crochet 3.23 Bello 3.63 Giolito 5.43 Buehler (maybe replaced by 2.87 D May, for the playoffs) 2.86 Whitlock 3.16 Weissert 1.15 Chapman (Uehara type numbers! 3.09 Bernardino 4.83 Fitts (in AAA) 2.61 Wilson 3.47 Slaten On paper, we have very few obvious weak players. 1B: maybe Lowe redeems 2B: gonna need Romy and rafaela to shine, here SP5: Buehler (May to #4) Deep pen: fill in the blank
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Agreed. We had been "fluked" a few times over the past few decades, before 2013. I think if the 2013 team can win a ring, this team has a shot. That team was 74-54 on August 20th. Before the year started, not many people expected to see these numbers: The top 9 batters by PAs all over .749 and Carp at .913 & Iggy at .785. On August 20th, our two top IP guys had these numbers: 4.09 Lester 4.77 Dempster
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I agree. I think we have to add a right-side infielder, this winter. I still have a #2 SP and closer as a higher priority, but we should be able to fill 3 roles plus some added pen help. We should be able to trade an OF'er to fix one of the 3 big holes, so we only need to fill 2 major slots via free agency. We just lost the Devers contract and will lose Buehler's, Chapman's, Wilson's, Hendriks' & Ref's, plus maybe Gio's. (I'm assuming Bregman comes back or my list grow by one major get needed.)
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I do think it's okay to strive for "just capable" at a few positions, as long as a few other factors are in place: 1. You have depth at that position. 2. You are plus at almost all other 26 slots. 3. You are plus-plus at enough positions to make up for any unforeseeable or seeable pitfalls. One thing about this team is its balance, but we tend to lack enough top players to make us a top contender. Just about every team has positions where they are actually not capable and even bad or horrible. Here are just a few I found on the top 4 teams in MLB. (BTW, CHC is #5, LAD is #6 & SDP is #7. Those teams were once thought to be top 4.) MIL: SS position bats .608 & 2B .637. Out of their top 10 batters by PAs, only 2 are over .786 and none are over .830. DET has a pretty balanced offense, but 5 positions are below the league .719 OPS: .649 at 3B, .652 CF, .707 SS, .713 C and ,714 DH. Is 5 less than capable positions enough to have the best AL record? YES! They also have 2 of their top 4 IP guys over 4.50. PHI has 4 of their top 10 batters under .710. Luzardo is at 4.21 and Nola at 6.92. TOR has 3 of their top 10 batters under .669 and some sketchy pitchers.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Yanks almost blew their game to the worst team in MLB over the last few weeks- the Rays. They let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, after having a perfect game going through 6 IP. Some other contenders lost. SEA is 1.5 GB HOU, who is reeling. (HOU is one up on us.) WC 69-57 NYY 68-59 BOS 68-60 SEA -2.5 KCR (-3 from BOS) -3.0 CLE (-3.5 BOS) I'm calling TEX, LAA & TBR out of it, until they have a streak or something. -
I think the Sox will look at all these options and think it's likely we end up with a capable 1Bman and 2Bman... 1B: Casas, Lowe, Campbell, Jh Garcia & Romy 2B: Mayer, Romy, Campbell, DHam/Grissom & Arias getting closer to pushing Story to 2B This does look better, to me, than how these two slots looked last winter, but back then, I had dreams of Devers at 1B and Casas at DH or traded for Castillo. We have the top priorities of keeping Bregman and Chapman or replacing one or both, in kind. I still put SP'er as the next highest priority- above 1B & 2B, and maybe even pen depth is more important, too. Maybe signing Luis Arraez could help 1B & 2B, but I'm not sure he's really a 2B option, despite being just 28 years old. He also has no power, and we need more of that.

