moonslav59

Do we really want to be the biggest spenders in MLB for 3-4 years in a row, some by a wide margin? I remember hating the Yanks for "buying championships."

By 2020, we'll be a long way away from our last high draft pick. Yes, dropping 10 picks from 27 to 37 is not a big deal, but how long will Henry keep paying high luxury tax costs, including penatly taxes for going over level 1 and maybe 2? The year 3 tax is 40% (not 17.5% like year one. Then there's a $12% surtax on money spent between $20-40M and 45% for money spent over 40M (year 2 or more). That's a huge amount in tax costs. I'm not so sure Henry wants to be viewed as the next King George.

We can probably get by without replacing Kelly. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can be our closer next year without a huge drop-off, but then who takes their role as a set-up guy? I doubt we fix all our pen holes within system, but I guess it's possible. If we only have to sign Pom or repalce him, we can do it. The "cliff" or drop off does not arrive next year, but we'll be at year 2 tax rates and pushing the max tax line. 2020 will be year 3 tax rate, and Pablo's contract will not pay for all the arb raises. I'm thinking we might squeeze another top competitive year into "the window", but a lot has to go right. Free agents needing to be re-signed or replaced (in kind or better): Sale Bogey Porcello Thornburg (important assuming we have no Kimbrel) Moreland

IMO, he's a defensive liability at every position he plays. Some UZR/150 numbers are small sample size that shows he's decent here and there, but I don't feel confidence in his defense anywhere he plays. He may bat better than mosy utility IF'ers, but unless someone gets hurt long term, we won't be needing Holt's bat, since he's not an upgrade, offensively, at any position he playes, even if he hits .750. (Note: he hit .727 his AS season.)

If Leon gets Sale to be a top 3 Cy Young vote getter, he's done his job, even at .580.

We're currently about $3M from the maximu penalty tax limit. Next year, we'll see some signifcant arb raises. To keep Kimbrel and Pom, we'll pretty much have to go more than $40M over the limit or trade a higher priced player- this even with HRam's option not vesting. If it vests, we'll likely see loss of talent or luxury tax penatlies increased starting next season. The following season, we lose Pablo (and maybe HRam, if he vests), but we'll have majore players to re-sign or replace in kind. It's not impossible, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the full core of talent together or to replace in kind through free agency or trades. Here are the numbers... We're $3-4M under the $40M penalty line. I believe the luxry tax goes up $9M, so that leaves us with about $12M going into next year, assuming we don't sign someone this summer that is signed into next year. ($1M more for Sale's option year and assuming we lose Holt $2.2M and Leon $2.0M, we're now at about $15M under the max tax limit.) Arb raises: Betts 2 of 3 ($10.5M > ?) Bogey 3 of 3 ($7.1M >?) JBJ 3 of 4 ($6.1M>?) ERod 2 of 4 ($2.8M) Thornburg 3 of 3 ($2.1M>?) Wright 2 of 3 ($1.1M>?) Smith 2 of 3 ($850K>?) Workman 2 of 3 ($835K>?) 1st arbs: Barnes, Swihart, Hembree & Elieas. These arb raises will certainly eat up that $15M and then some. We lose: (luxury tax dollars) $13M Kimbrel $8.5M Pom $3.8M Kelly Total: $25.3M Maybe we'll have $10-15M to repalce these guys or be stuck replacing him with players already in the system (or a little of both). HRam's $22M would help a lot, and if we add $22M to $13M, we're at $35M to spend on Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly. It might be close to enough. A vesting HRam contracts almost certainly means we lose Kimbrel and/or Pom or go way over the maz penalty (2nd year rates) and watch our draft pick move down 10 picks.

I was about to go back and check around this time in Sox history. 2010 had Lester, Lackey, Buch, Dice-K, Wake and Doubront 2008 had Lester, Beckett, Buch, Dice-K, Wake, Masterson & Colon 2007 didn't need depth, but Tavarez gave us 23 decent starts, and Gabbard gave us 7. Buch was our 8th starter.

Here's how I see our roster and depth chart: C: Vaz will probably start 4 out of 5 starts with Leon being Sale's personal caddie. It remains to be seen if Swihart can muscle his way into more catching time beyond late inning PH'er-type role. Butler provides pretty good ML ready depth in AAA. 1B: Although this could be one of this season's weakest comparative position by WAR or OPS, we have decent depth. HRam will likely start vs all LH'd SP'ers as MiMo hits lefties very poorly. HRam and MiMo might split time vs RH'd starters. Swihart may muscle his way to some playing time here. HRam's vesting option at 497 PAs will likely be hotly debated all season long. Sam Travis has had a very nice Spring and now looks to be a more-than-capable back-up stashed in AAA, With 4 1Bmen to choose from, maybe we'll get a surprise from one or two of them. 2B: Pedey is the man, but Nunez will start the season at 2nd and might see significant time there, even after Pedey returns. Marco Hernandez (DL), Holt, Lin and Quiroz offer decent depth. 3B: Devers looks like he will get over 600 PAs this year. Nunez might play some, perhaps while Devers "rests" as our DH. Holt, Lin and maybe even Swihart could fill in, if we need them here. SS: Bogaerts should play every game, except when resting. My guess is, we'll use the poor-fielding SS, Nunez, as our first choice at SS, but Holt and Lin can fill in pretty well. LF: Beni should get all of the starts, except when JD plays LF in Fenway. Beni may play RF or CF, when other OF'ers are rested or given the day off. Nunez, Holt, Swihart and even Moreland can play LF, when needed. CF: JBJ should play FT CF, except when JD plays the OF. Beni or Betts are the depth here. RF: Betts should get over 700 PAs, especially if he hits 1st or 2nd everyday. JD may play some RF at NL parks and maybe a few AL parks as well, butBetts will move to CF at JBJ's expense. DH: JD Martinez should play here as much as possible, so we can maximize his PAs and minimize a chance for injury. HRam, Nunez/Pedey, Swihart/Travis or Devers could see time at DH this year. SP1: Sale SP2: Price SP3: Pomeranz (DL) SP4: ERod (when off the DL) SP5: Porcello SP6: Wright (suspended) SP7: Johnson SP8: Velazquez SP9: Elias/Beeks/Haley Closer: Kimbrel (back-up: Smith/Thornburg) RP2: Smith RP3: Thornburg (DL) RP4: Kelly RP5: Barnes RP6: Hembree (no options) RP7: Workman RP8: Poyner RP9: Maddox RP10: Scott RP11: Wright/Johnson/Elias/Velazquez/Buttrey/Martin/Layne/Jerez... All-in-all, I like our depth just about everywhere.

My number was 96, but I did not choose the 96-101 bracket, because I think there's less chance we win that amount of games than the 92-95 bracket. Here's a rough estimate of how I see our chances of winning x amount of games 90- 8% (rash of injuries) 91 7% 92 8% 93 11% 94 13% 95 15% 96 16% 97 13% 98 9% 99 4% 100 2% 101 1% 102+ 1% 92-95 wins is 47% 96-101 is 46%

Nice story with Poyner. I'm sure we'll be seeing guys like Scott, Maddox (DL), Thornburg (DL) and Elias called up at some point.

It looks like the 2018 25 man roster is pretty much set. It's time for Part II. Link to Part I: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18464-A-Realistic-View-at-2018-Part-I Here's a look at what I see might happen... My 2018 Projections (assuming no new injuries, which, admittedly, is not very realistic) Hitting PAs Player BA HR RBI (OBP/OPS/OPS) 720 Betts .300 30 110 (.375/.500/.875) 680 Beni .280 25 100 (.355/.445/.800) 650 Bogey .290 15 90 (.355/.415/.780) 600 JMart .290 45 135 (.380/.570/.950) 600 Devers .290 25 100 (.335/.465/.800) 600 JB Jr, .275 20 75 (.330/.420/.750) 500 Nunez .275 15 65 (.340/.430/.770) 450 HRam .270 15 70 (.335/.415/.750) 450 Vazq .260 8 50 (.320/.380/.700 400 Pedey .280 5 45 (.360/.390/.750) 400 Mi Mo .240 15 50 (.320/.400/.720) 350 Swi .265 10 35 (.330/.390/.720) 100 Leon .220 3 10 (.280/.360/..640) 100 Holt .270 2 10 (.320/.360/.680) Starting Pitchers GS/IP Pitcher W-L in starts ERA 33/210 Sale 24-9 3.00 32/200 Price 20-12 3.30 32/200 Porc 18-14 4.00 26/180 Pom 16-10 3.60 26/150 ERod 16-10 3.60 10/90 Wright 6-4 4.20 (some in relief) 3 by Johnson/Velazquez (1-2 5.00) Team: 101-61 (assuming no new injuries) Defense Ranking (out of 30): 6-9 Catcher: Assuming Swihart does not catch too often. 16-19 1B: Assuming HRam plays more than MiMo 14-17 2B: Assuming Nunez plays 2B 25-35% 23-26 SS: Assuming Bogey plays 155+ games here 26-29 3B: Assuming Devers plays 155+ games here 11-14 LF: Beni with JMart getting some time here 4-7 CF: JBJ 1-4 RF: Betts Your thoughts and ideas are welcome. LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

.680 would be "good" for Leon.

Top ST'ing OPS (27+ PAs) 1.219 Beni 1.061 Bogaerts 1.014 Devers .994 de Jesus .963 Travis .961 Vaz .930 Holt .926 Betts .863 Moreland .852 Leon .846 Swihart Nice to see all three catchers over .845. Swihart is now 3rd.

One of the few times we ever agreed, and now you go and switch.

Well said. I do think guys like Marrero are everywhere, mostly in the minors. One other reason I liked Marrero more than Holt beyond the $1.5M savings was that we need a late-inning defensive replacement for Devers and Nunez much more than we'll ever need Holt to PH or replace someone for his offense. It is what it is, and Holt looks to be back to form, so let's hope he can help is some way. He is an excellent base runner.

Is Lin the same caliber defensively?

I agree, and the $1.5M differential could come in handy this summer. I'm not sure we;ll see much of Holt this year, and we wouldn't have with Marrero either, unless there's a long term injury. When Pedey and Hernandez get back, I can't see Holt still being on the 25 man roster, so this choice was a short term one anyways.

Yes, I think you misunderstood what I meant. I meant 2 more years than we already had. The way I wrote it was not great and easy to misunderstand.

I had a feeling my misquote was not going to go unoticed.

I wanted Marrero over Holt, but the guy is like a .550 hitter. It's not like it's a big disparity.

Well, I've over-projected for 3-4 straight years, so...

Marrero's bat was just so damn anemic. I wish him the best, as well. As much as I have been down on Holt for a couple years, I'm glad he's back to form, and I'm fine with him on our 25 man roster.

This was the first of 3 arb years (2018-2020). Now, he siged through 2021 with an option for 2022.

MLBTR... Red Sox starter Chris Sale left today’s start after being struck by a comebacker off the bat of J.D. Davis. Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald was first to tweet that the club called it a hip contusion. Thankfully for fans in Boston, the X-rays on his hip came back negative ...

Depending on what we got for marrero, and I doubt it's much, I'd have prefered to put Holt at AAA for depth. Holt is not a good enough hitter to replace any starter as an upgrade, and his defense is much worse than Marrero's. He's not really th type you should ever use as a late inning defensive replacement either.