moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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With no pen arms becoming a FA this winter and Carson Smith, Thornburg and Ross coming back next year, I'm not sure we need to look for anything more than a 2 month rental. Keep the return package to a minimum.
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I think even in the ninth, unless you have a super weak hitter up that knows how to bunt, it's still not worth it in any situation, except 1st & 2nd and 0 outs.
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On signing FAs that rejected a QO... The penalties that a club pays upon signing a player that rejected a QO have changed as well: Any team that paid the luxury tax in the preceding season will forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft selections in next year’s draft as well as $1MM of its international bonus pool in the upcoming period. A team that did not exceed the luxury tax threshold but contributes to revenue sharing would forfeit its second-highesr draft pick as well as $500K of its upcoming international bonus pool. A team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax and also received revenue sharing in the preceding season would forfeit only its third-highest pick in the next year’s draft.
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True enough.
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I just finished Smart Baseball by Keith Law. He provides data from studies that shows man on 2nd no outs vs man on 3rd with 1 out is a "push". The odds are 0.66 vs 0.66. Only 1st and 2nd, no outs gives a very slightly better odds after a successful bunt only. There was no data on how failed bunts, bunting into DPs, or other possibilities affected the odds. man on 1st and 2nd no outs .65 chance of scoring 1 or more runs. man on 2nd and 3rd one out .69 chance of scoring 1 or more runs. man on 2nd and no outs .66 chance man on 3rd and one out .66 chance All others are worse, such as... man on 1st and 0 outs .50 chance man on 2nd and 1 out .45 chance There may be other studies that show some differences.
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LOL. I know Lin's a better defender at 3B than Holt.
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As a percentage decision, bunting has a lesser success rate by non-pitchers than not bunting. Wasting an out lessens the chance of scoring even one run. Man of first no outs: chance of scoring at all is .499. Man on second with one out: chance of scoring at all .477. Even if the bunt attempt was 100% successful, the odds get worse. The average runs scored? Man on 1st and no outs: 0.84 Man on 2nd and one out: 0.65 With man on first and second with no outs, the bunt looks like it might be a tiny bit better for scoring just one run, so I guess one should never say never. 1st and 2nd, no outs: .649 with no bunt to .695 after successful bunt (2nd and third with one out)
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HRam: career .858 OPS Late & Close .813 (-.045) High Leverage .814 (-.044) 2 outs RISP .822 (-.036) RISP .852 (-.006) Men on .837 (-.021) The Gold Standard: David Ortiz .931 career OPS Late & Close: .870 (-.061) High Leverage: .942 (+.009) 2outs RISP: .951 (+.020) RISP: .943 (+.012) Men on: .967 (+.036) Hanley actually has a better OPS differential than Papi in Late & Close situations.
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It's not even proven to help get one run. The odds are still better, unless your pitchers is up, to not give away outs.
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Lin might be better vs RHPs (even at .703) than Holt.
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Top AL UZR/150 leaders in 2017: 1) Betts 28.2 2) Alex Gordon 16.9 4) Iggy 15.4 11) Pedey 10.8 28) Bogaerts 3.1 39) JBJ 1.0 48) Beni -2.1 If you lower the innings to 200 and 138 players... 6) Marrero (3B) +16.7 110) Pablo -8.6 136) Young (LF) -26.2 29) Moreland 2.9
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He needs to get hot soon. He's been horrible (.528 last 28 days).
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Bunting is just plain bad strategy, except for having pitchers do it.
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The Holt and Marerro proposed 3rd base platoon is the decision for now but Lin sits in the minors with potentially better numberss than either. vs. RHPs, Lin is probably better than both Holt and Marrero, but I'd stick with marrero vs LHPs until he proves he can't do it anymore.
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Let's not forget HRam... Last 28 days: .939 HRam .910 Pedey .827 Betts Last 14 days: 1.009 Pedey .930 HRam .775 Betts Last 7 days: 1.006 Pedey .769 HRam .767 Young .755 Betts
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Doesn't look like the cost was all that high.
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Next year, we hope Smith & Thornburg are as far as we have to look. This year, we could really use a bonafide set-up guy via trade.
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IP/GS 7.1 Sale 6.3 Porcello 6.1 Price 5.9 ERod 5.4 Pom 490.2IP/79GS 6.2 IP/GS 5.4 Johnson 5.2 Velazquez 4.9 Fister 4.8 Wright 4.2 Kendrick 94.1 IP/17 GS 5.5 IP/GS
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AL FIP rankings: 1) Price 1.53 5) Sale 1.98 10) Pom 2.25 19) Porc 3.31 ERA- 3) Price 42 4) Sale 43 7) Pom 49 18) Porc 73
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Top AL starters over the last 30 days by WAR: 1) 1.6 Price & Kluber 3) 1.4 Paxton 4) 1.3 Sale 5) 1.2 Darvish 6) 1.1 Severino 7) 1.0 Pomeranz & Tanaka 9) 0.9 Carrasco, Fulmer, Manae 13) 0.8 Peacock, S Gray, Verlander 14) 0.7 Hamels 15) 0.6 Porcello Pretty impressive to have 3 in the top 7 and 4 in the top 15 out of 15 AL teams!
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Our top 4 rotation has been stronger than we've seen in a long time. Hopefully, ERod will get back to form soon.
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We have a deep pen, but after Kimbrel, we don't really have a great RP'er: Kimbrel Kelly (DL) Smith (DL) Thornburg (Out for season) R Ross (DL) Barnes Hembree Workman Abad Boyer Scott Taylor Maddox Martin N Ramirez Plus, maybe... Johnson Fister Velazquez Olmos Beeks
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I'd still like to have a lights out set-up man with a K rate above 10.0. Kelly has done a great job, so far and hopefully can continue doing so when he returns, but he's not a high K reliever. We can't count on C Smith for anything. Workman, Barnes and Hembree are nice complimentary RP'ers, but none look like solid 8th inning guys or occasional closer types.
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I'd do this: 1. Demote a pitcher (Martin or Taylor). 2. Call up Travis to start vs LHPs at 1B. 3. DL Moreland or at least move him to the 7th slot. 4. If HRam can't play 1B vs RHPs, then find a cheap 1Bman in trade. (We might even wait until the waiver wire to find one, once we know moer about Moreland's injury and ability to return.) 5. Begin a Beni-Young platoon in LF (or call up Brentz to start in LF vs LHPs). 6. Stop rewarding guys for things they did 6 weeks ago and back (Moreland).
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Mata is now 6th on the soxprospects rankings list: 1 Devers 2 Groome 3 Travis 4 Chavis 5 Houck 6 Mata 7 Flores 8 Ockimey 9 Chatham 10 Dalbec 11 Beeks 12 Lakins 13 Johnson 14 Brannen 15 Scherff 16 Shawaryn 17 Anderson 18 Thompson 19 D Hernandez 20 Callahan 21 Raudes 22 D Diaz 23 Taylor 24 Buttrey 25 Nogosek 26 A Maddox 27 T-W Lin
