moonslav59

Busting out of the slump. I'm thinking this is the beginning of a long hot streak.

It may look like that now, but I think it's an over simplification to think Papi's presence in the line-up made just about everyone have much better season last year over this year. "Line-up protection" has been largely debunked, but even if it were significant, the drop-offs from 2016 to 2017 are more dramatic than you seem to think they are. Here are the best OPS by season of Sox players from 2016 to 2017: (300+ PAs unless noted) 2016 Papi 1.021 2016 Betts .897 2016 HRam .866 2016 Young .850 (227 PAs) 2016 Leon .845 (283) 2016 Beni .835 (118) 2016 JBJ .835 2016 Pedey .825 2017 Betts .818 2016 Bogey .802 2017 Pedey .791 2017 JBJ .790 2017 HRam .783 2017 Beni .762 2017 Bogey .748 2017 Moreland .733 2016 Shaw .726 2016 Moreland .720 (with TEX) 2017 Young .719 (199) 2016 Holt .705 2017 Leon .672 2017 Vaz .620 (203) 2016 Vaz .585 (184)

It's not reasonable to expect all the 22-27 year old players on your team decline from the previous season either. This period is usually on the up curve on the bell. Plus, it's not like 31-33 year old players like HRam, Pedey, Moreland and Young are seriously post-prime, and all should have been expected to decline as well. If just 2-3 of these guys repeated or improved, the whole season could have been way different. Nobody expected everyone to improve.

Does anyone?

Many felt top of rotation SP'ing was not a top priority last winter. Where would we be now had we signed EE and not traded for Sale? (Not that we couldn't have done both and blew the luxury reset idea up, right?)

Was it really a lot to expect our younger players to repeat their 2016 season or even get better? Even if we saw some decline from a couple youngsters, I think getting a full season from Beni should have been enough to at least expect a break even point with this group. Expecting Pedey & HRam to repeat or improve could be viewed as wishful thinking, and expecting Pablo to do better than Shaw was certainly dreaming. I don't think the expected decline from Leon should have offset the loss of Hanigan and Holaday. In short, I don't think anyone expected the offense to be as good, but the fact is just about everyone is doing worse than last year. I'm not sure DD should be blamed for that, but ultimately the GM and manager are responsible. Picking up Sale should have come close to making up for losing Papi. Adding Thornburg and Moreland and getting Smith back could have tipped the balance, but that hasn't materialized. Losing Wright hurt, too. Price and Porcello have been disappointing as well, but there's still time to make some magic this year.

...or, take the money and suggest/demand a trade.

..and sometimes, even if the manager is okay or good, a change can light a spark with the team.

A look at 2018's luxury tax budget: (No Young, Moreland, Nunez, Abad, Boyer and Fister) Dollars in millions 31.0 Price 22.0 HRam 20.6 Porcello 19.0 Pablo 13.8 Pedroia 12.0 Kimbrel (option) 11.5 C Sale (option) $130M for 7 players Arb Projections 7.0 Betts (1st of 3 arbs- from 0.95) 7.0 Pom (3rd of 3- from 4.45) 6.0 Bogey (2nd or 3- from 4.5) 6.0 JBJ (2nd of 4- from 3.6) 3.5 Kelly (1st of 3- from 2.8) 2.5 Thornburg (2nd of 3- from 2.05) 2.0 R Ross (3rd of 3- from 1.85) 2.0 ERod (1st of 4- from 0.59) 1.5 Leon (2nd of 3- from 1.3) 1.5 Wright (1st of 4- from 0.59) 1.5 C Smith (1st of 3- from 0.57) 1.0 Vazquez (1st of 3- from 0.56) ~$41M for 12 arb signings Possible trade, non-tender or DFA: Holt (2nd of 3 arbs- from 1.95) Rutledge (2nd of 3- from 0.60) ____________________________ $171M for 19 players $12M for other 21 players (assuming no FA signings) --Beni, Devers, Hernandez, Barnes, Hembree, Workman, Swihart, Scott, Travis, Johnson, Taylor, Maddox --Marrero, Lin, Velazquez, Martin, N Ramirez, H Owens, Elias, Selsky (or Rule 5 additions) ____________________________ $183M This leaves us quite a bit of money to spend on a FA or two without going over the luxury limit by too much. [/b]

We'll find the groove again (I hope). I still wish we'd make a managerial change, but I doubt it happens, so we have to think our players will have to pull themselves out of this by themselves.

Ysla was DFA'd to make room for Nunez on the 40-man.

Yeah, but it was, and we had to deal with the cards we were dealt.

2016 was not progression over 2015. His farm numbers were classic yo-yo. He had more bad half seasons than good over his previous 5 half seasons before being called up in 2015. Look, I called Shaw my "sleeper prospect" long ago, but he was not showing progression for 3-4 years before 2017.

Yeah, so? He would have put us over the limit for 3 more years and prevented several other options.

Just because our other hitters have been in a slump. doesn't mean they will continue slumping. Busting out tonight! A long hot streak to follow.

Shaw was not all that young. He wasn't much of an "up and comer" either. He had a good half year. While I agree it turned out badly, Thornburg was a very good pitcher before the injury ended his season. Signing EE would have given our 3rd high-priced DH (EE, HRam & Pablo). I think he ended up signing for way less than anyone expected, so I suppose we can pin that on DD, but I think resetting the luxury tax will help us for years to come.

1) I think the plan is to re-set the luxury tax and go over the next 2-4 years. 2) If Holt's arb gets too high, we can trade him. 3) The other "12 slots" could be filled by very cheap players with some quality and upside potential: ERod Wright C Smith Barnes Hembree Workman Maddox, Scott, Taylor or Martin Johnson or Beeks Vaz Leon Beni Devers My guess is, we will sign a significant hitter who can play 2 or 3 of these positions: 1B 3B LF This won't put us over the limit by much. We may also look to upgrade our catcher offense and decide on keeping just one from Leon or Vaz. Travis Marrero or Lin Johnson

...and maybe not as bad either.

Agreed, but if Porcello can give us 3.06 to the end of the season and through the playoffs, I'll be happy with RP.

This from MLBTR... The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax. Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots.

It's not this bad now either. All teams go through team slumps. We're busting out tonight!

Had HRam and Porcello had their 2016 seasons in 2015, Ben would still be here.

There was more to the plan than just adding Moreland. We added Sale, Thornburg and were expecting full seasons from Beni and others, as well as a return of Carson Smith. I'm not a DD fan, but let's not ignore the full picture.

If we can get a quality OF'er for less than the luxury tax on Castillo's deal, I'd be surprised.\\ That's basically what the comp should be. The problem is that once we add Castillo to the 40 man, we can't get out of counting his salary against the luxury tax until his contract ends (3 years after this season ends). We will likely reach the 50% tax bracket during his last season here. That's a $5.5M tax for just that one year. I doubt he ever makes it on our 40 man roster for that reason alone.

3.06 ERA in his last 5 starts. 0-4 in those starts. Signs of life.