moonslav59

I guess you are assuming the 2017 Porcello is the real Porcello. Without the 2016 Porcello, we might not be talking about 2 division titles in a row. Even as "bad" as Porcello looked this year, he still was clearly better than replacement level. He had a 2.0 WAR and is projected at 2.4 next year. (He was at 5.1 in 2016.) I do agree, we will not bring Porcello back, but we will likely need a solid #3/4 starter to replace him, assuming Sale & Price are going strong. That will cost much more than a minimum salary. What would really help is if for once we could get a solid starter from our farm: Beeks, Groome, Johnson, Velazquez, some one else? I'm not seeing it, but it certainly is possible. I also think replacing Bogey seems like one of the most likely to let go and replace with someone much cheaper. I disagree on JBJ. I'd look to keep him, but it's hard to know.

Every GM gets praised for what they do well and criticism for what they do "wrong"- along with everything in between. DD has done a spectacular job at getting us highly competitive in a short time. There's nothing wrong with discussing the downsides of his moves. Those of us who praise Ben's farm building skills have also been highly critical of the many mistakes he made and his failure to keep us highly competitive. If your are seeing unqualified "nostalgia", then you are not seeing the whole picture.

I can tell.

Clowns often are very entertaining. I'm a big ICP fan. They've been getting a bad rap recently. Dip shits rarely have any upside.

I'm not sure the Sox have traded a key player for prospects while in competition for the playoffs for as long as I have followed them. I guess there's a first time for everything, but DD does not seem like the type of GM to be the first at something like this.

It looks like we have no chance at Stanton, so maybe we go hard for JD and sign him soon. One problem with the timing might be that some teams are holding off on making a firm competitive offer for JD until after Stanton is traded. JD's agent might be waiting it out.

If we sign Shaw, and Smith or Thronburg look strong, notin's suggestion of trading Kimbrel might make more sense. JBJ has 3 years of control left. Trading someone's who's contract ends in 1-2 years makes more sense. (I seriously doubt DD is even contemplating trading a vet.)

For those sick of reading about future tough times, stop reading here. Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.) Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M) Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M) Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M) Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary) Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M) Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018) JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018) Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021 Price $31M until the end of 2022 Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs) Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs) Role Players: Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M) Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs Sunken cost coming off the books: HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests) Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021 Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents. If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then. I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind. Kimmi's point about who fills the other 10-15 slots on the roster is actually a bigger issue than this.

I am very hestitant to sign Martinez as we already have a ton of walking/ repeatedly injured players. He really hasn't been on the DL a lot, and the injuries he sustained do not seem chronic in nature.

I'm not so sure the CWS are looking for ML ready prospects over ones 2-3 years away.

Could the prospects we get for JBJ outweigh what STL is willing to offer? (Personally, I'd keep JBJ and just sign Santana.)

It seems like our best chance at significantly getting better this winter is through free agency. With so many free agent failures in our history as well as the histories of just about every MLB team, I'm not sure why I still feel pretty confident we will make the right moves.

They may get Abreu.

From MLBTR... The Red Sox will also chase Ohtani, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald via text: “Would acknowledge our interest. Beyond that, all would be confidential.” Ohtani joining Chris Sale and David Price would make for a rather enticing top of the rotation, needless to say, and he could also factor in as a designated hitter for a Boston club that received uninspiring production there last season in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era. I know we are a long shot on Stanton, but i find this interesting... Buster Olney of ESPN reports via Twitter that the Marlins are more focused on moving as much of Stanton’s salary as possible than they are on maximizing their prospect return. Seems we might be able to swoop in and steal the show by offering to take the whole contract.

Just to change the subject, could Wil Myers and/or Brad Hand be pried away from the Padres with anything we could offer? Wily Myers: 18:$2M, 19:$3M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$20M club option ($1M buyout) $66M/5 of $85M/6 Luxury Tax Cost: $13.8M Brad Hand: 2 arb years left (2018 est at $4M) Could we sign JD Martinez, trade JBJ for prospects, flip the prospect to SD and add a few more of our own to get these two? Are the Padres in total rebuild mode?

Very true. Even more expensive that Sale's 3 years here. That's one reason I loved the Sale trade. The real problem is everyone's jig is up in too short a time. The relief we get from Pablo, HRam and Castillo coming off the books can and should help us keep or replace some of our stars and defray the rising costs or arbs, but there will very likely come a time where the biggest choice of all will be made by Henry: radically increase our budget or let at least a couple big named stars go without replacing in kind. (Again, this is just my opinion.)

Nobody I know is forgetting other sunken cost salaries coming off the books. (Pablo, HRam & Castillo costs are burned into our minds.) Your point on Betts is missing one key point. His last arb might be $20M, so keeping him or replacing him in kind, will add $10M to the budget. While last year arbs have been rising in recent years, they are still usually way less than FA market value. Chris Sale's last option year is just $13.5M. You think we can keep or replace him at that cost? Add almost $20M right there. (That's Pablo coming off the books just to keep our ace. Replacing Porcello at $20M could be easy, and maybe we even save a couple million. Replacing Kimbrel, Pom, Bogey, JBJ and others will cost much more than their last year's salary number. IMO, We can and will keep some of our stars or replace them with equal value. We will likely still have Devers and Beni and ERod. We'll have a few other good role players, but it seems probable we will lose maybe 2 of our key players and not have the money to replace them without radically changing our spending habits. Yes, this is opinion, conjecture and speculation, but I'm answering a point you made that was equally speculative. BTW, I have never projected last place finishes either, although I would not be surprised by one between 2020 and 2023.

That's assuming he does well in 2018. Anderson Espinoza had 58 IP under his belt when we traded him for Pom. Groome has 62 IP, and he's a top 100 prospect already. (Espi was top 20.)

We need something big to happen, so we can change the subject. The first domino has to fall soon- Stanton to the Giants. Get it done!

LMAO! Too funny!

I hear you. I guess maybe the 3 plus decades of several "oh-so-close" to making the playoffs and complete playoff futility wore on me more than I realized. I remember telling friends and relatives I'd take 10 last place finishes for just one ring. I meant that, then, but now that we have 3 rings in my lifetime, my views have changed. Yes, I love being in the race every year, and seasons where we are out of it in July suck royally. Despite what dgalehouse says, I'm no where near "content" with trashy teams if the future looks bright. I will say, I'm happier with that scenario than having a trashy team and a weak farm/future. I want us to compete every year, but there's a point where coming close year after year but not winning it all starts to wear on me. Those 2014 and 2015 seasons really put me back in the mode of striving harder for another ring, even if it sacrificed some of our brighter future prospects. I'm fine with what DD did. I probably would not have done quite as much trading of prospects, but he really did commit to getting us highly competitive for a pretty darn lengthy time. I have no beef with his strategy. I'm fine with looking very good for a 4-5 year period and putting at risk maybe a 2-3 year period afterwards to do so. I don't sit around fretting about 2021. I've lived through 33 years of near constant futility. I can handle 2-3 years without feeling anguish or despair. I will be looking for more highly competitive teams after that questionable 2-3 year period being debated forcefully on this site.

With all due respect, you chime in on the issue quite often. When I say "we" I'm speaking for those of us that believe there is a strong possibility we hit a very rough patch starting in 2020 or 2021. I don't want to speak for others, and I'm probably missing a couple names, but myself, Kimmi, notin, jacksonianmarch all seem to have similar beliefs on this subject.

We do have a great need at 2B, at least until June, but I'm looking at us ending up dangerously close to the second penalty phase luxury tax limit (we need an acronym for this term), and Holt's $2M might be enough to put us over or prevent us from signing who we want.

Good point, but within the context of the near constant "have faith" mantra from those who doubt the cliff is probable, it feels that way. We are being criticized for bringing it up. Yes, bringing up what we feel is the probable reality of our beloved team's future on a board dedicated to discussing the future of our beloved Red Sox. We were told that the value of Espi, Margot, Guerra, kopech, Moncada and other could not be counted on for our future, but have been told over and over by some posters to have faith in the idea that our farm will be rebuilt to the point where we will have significant contributing prospects by 2020. Prospects that rae not even named at this point. We are asked to stop being realistic when being called pessimist. We are accused of bringing the subject up 90% of the time- a gross distortion of reality, and then asked to subject ourselves to a popularity contest poll from other posters to see how much of a minority we might be, of how other posters perceive us. Yet, we are the ones being accused trying to force others to believe what we believe and being overbearing with repetition. The righteousness is clearly running both ways. I'm fine with anyone who disagrees with my analysis of our future probabilities. I realize I mention "the window" quite often when discussing trade opportunities and possible free agent, but I've always had a keen sense of our budget- right or wrong- and how any deal will likely affect the now & the tomorrow. This team is not in a situation we have been in too often. We had a core of young players that all came up near the same time and will all be free agents within a short few years. Couple that with the acquisition of other key players like Kimbrel, Pom, Porcello and Sale who also come up for free agency, and it's hard not to recognize the uniqueness of this future outlook. I may be forgetting past situations like this, but when has a Sox team had this type of talent all come up for free agency within a 3 year period? Major Minor after 2018: Pom Kimbrel Kelly (HRam vesting option) 2019: Sale Bogaerts Porcello Thornburg HRam (if not 2018) Holt 2020: Betts Bradley Vazquez Smith Wright Workman (Note: Arb costs will rise a lot during many of these players final arb year(s): Betts Bogey JBJ Smith Vaz ERod (2021 last arb) Thornburg Wright several others

I'm far frfom calling for DD's removal, in fact I have said countless times, I am fine with the totality of his moves AND the strategy to shoot for the stars over a 3-4 year period. It's better than the old Marlins and Twins building up for a 1 or two year shot for a ring. A 3-4 year period, actually 5, if we can stay strong in 2020 (2016-2020) is a great job by any GM. I'm thrilled we have such a strong team on paper. I expected more in the playoffs, and I'm extremely hopeful we advance much farther next year, but I'm not going to sugar coat what I feel is a serious day of reckoning that looms on the horizon. Yes, you are right; we have time to do something about it, and we seem to be off to a decent start with our last two drafts and the international signings of Velazquez, Mata, Danny Diaz, Raudes, D Hernandez, and others, however, we are very far away from having a farm that compares to the one DD inherited. the one we have now might even be worse than the one Ben inherited, but I haven't done a comp on that.