moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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We also have a history of winning a ring with our third string closer in 2013 (Uehara).
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Kimbrel has been a fantastic closer for us. I am not trying to imply otherwise. He was still "good enough" in 2016, even at his salary, which I felt was too high at the time.
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No, it doesn't, but I was responding, in part, to a poster who spoke of some of the suggested one year fix alternatives I mentioned back at the time of the Kimbrel trade, so what Kimbrel did in 2016 was important to that conversation.
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We traded for 3 years of Kimbrel. He gave us a decent 2016 and a fantastic 2017. Why do people just look at 2017 to judge him and the trade? Same with Pom. 2018 may be the ultimate factor in judgment.
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While I think spending large is not the best idea, I think DD wants a big splash and isn't worried about 3 years from now. As long as Henry is okay with going over the luxury tax by over $25M, I think he'll do it- either with JD and a pitcher or 3-4 mid range FA.
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...and 2016?
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True, but I was never advocating a bad bullpen. Also, a great pen will get you nowhere, if you have lousy starters.
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The idea was to get Quintana or Carrasco not a closer, and then yes, go "cheap" on a closer. 50-65 innings from a closer are important, but I'll take 190-210 from an excellent starter instead.
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He will get JD and end up 1 for 3.
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KRod and Clippard were some of my suggestions, yes, but you are neglecting to mention the rest of my suggestion: use the players we gave for Kimbrel, add others and get Sale or Quintana (or Carrasco) back then. We could possibly have Quintana and Sale with an average or better closer right now, or we could have struck out totally. I get the risk. I do think closers making $13M a year should not cost 4 prospects, even now with the inflated costs of closers. Margot was not a "marginal prospect", and several GMs seems to adhere to the notion that closers are not as valuable as some non analytic minded, non trendy fans seem to think they are. Plus, Kimbrel was not all that great in 2016, anyways.
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No, and that's why he won't do it, even though Kimbrel is just under control for 1 more year with 2 or 3 more years (of the "window") to go afterwards without him.
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I just don't see it happening, even if we sign Shaw and another good RP'er. IMO, trading Kimbrel is not on DD's mind. It doesn't fit the win now plan.
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He may slip, but he won't fall.
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So, DD misses out on Othani & Stanton. I think we get JD. DD likes big splashes.
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For our sake, I hope it's an NL team, but if not Seattle would be fine with me.
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Imnot' doubting this, but where is all this coming from?
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I hope you are right.
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Maybe the extra time given to GMs to decide on what is right for their teams will allow us to avoid making any free agent mistakes. We sure could use some good luck with free agents for once.
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I hope we don't trade JBJ, even if we sign JD Martinez. I'd just DH Martinez and hope HRam can play 1B full time. If he ends up getting hurt, we'll save the vesting option and find a c heap 1Bman mid season. (Again, I'd consider signing Duda or M Adams as 1b insurance. I'm not that high on Travis or Swihart at 1B.) Maybe just sign JD, Bryan Shaw and a couple cheap 5/6 starter type vets.
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True, but in theory, we'd have likely had other players in their place at a lesser cost. What was the fWAR for Pom & Kimbrel in 2016?
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Since the closer role seems to have increased its value exponentially since we signed Kimbrel, we might end up getting close to what we gave up for him 2 winters ago. We can't afford to trade Pom, and Kelly is the only other significant last season player on the roster. He's not bringing back top prospects.
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...I would not have done the Sale trade. In hindsight, it turns out we needed him because of Price's injury, but at the time that we acquired him, our rotation was already pretty darn good. After already having acquired Price and Pom, Sale was a luxury that we did not need.... We also needed Sale due to Porcello, ERod, Weight and Pom's uncertainty this time last year.
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Does giving him the contract mean we are on the hook for his contract or can we DFA him later and be free of any obligations?
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You're pretty close to my signing priorities. Betts & Sale are at the top of my list. JBJ is higher than Pom, but that could change after what we see in 2018. Kimbrel will cost too much to keep, but he will not be easily replaced. We can hope Smith, Thornburg or Kelly step it up, and/or we can sign Shaw for $7M and save some there. I think letting Porcello & Bogey go makes the most sense, but that does not total $50M in savings. Pedey and Price are pretty much locked in to the end.
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Let's say we keep Kimbel and Pom next winter and let Kelly walk. We keep Sale and let Bogey walk after 2019. We let Porcello go and keep Betts and JBJ. We reap the benefits of losing HRam, Porcello & Castillo. Here's a look at the 2021 preliminary roster: SP1 Sale $31M+ SP2 Price $31M SP3 Pom $20M SP4 ERod $12M (last arb year) SP5 Groom/Beeks/Johnson (min) RP1 Kimbel $18M RP2 ______ $? RP3 ______ $? RP4 Barnes $? last arb RP5 Hembree $? last arb RP6 Scott $? last arb RP7 Maddox/Taylor/??? C _______ (Re-sign Vaz after 2020?) 1B Travis/Ockimey? 2B Pedey $13.75M 3B Devers (maybe 1st or 2nd arb?) SS ______ (Hernandez last arb) LF Beni $? 2nd of 3 arbs CF JBJ $18M RF Betts $28M DH _____ (JD Martinez at $25+M?) Bench: Swihart (3 of 4th arb), Lin or Marrero, Brentz, Chatham/???) That's over $170M for 8 players Sale, Price, Betts, Pom, BJ, Kimbrel, Pedey & ERod, This is not c oun ting any FA we sign this winter to more than 3 years. Then, we have the arb costs for Beni & Devers. That doesn't leave much for the other 14-15 roster slots.
