moonslav59

Who could he possibly be misdirecting by saying nobody is going to have surgery this winter?

I'm actually surprised Owens lasted this long. I guess that's a statement against the depth and quality of rule 5 prospects we had this year.

and.... I guess if everyone from one race never met your standards, none ever will. Wow! BTW, many Japanese players far out earned their pay + posting cost.

I like Scott, and we have several RH'd RP'ers that do very well vs lefties.

I guess you feel this is close enough... 2016-2017 OPS .842 Santana (10th out of 22 first basemen with 1000+ PAs) .746 Moreland (22nd out of 22) wRC+ 124 124 Santana (10th) 93 Moreland (22/22) ISO .218 Santana (9th) .193 (17th) OBP .365 (10th) .313 (27th and hideous for a 1Bman) SLG .477 Santana (10th) .433 Moreland (19th) BAbip .272 Moreland (19) .266 Santana (22/22) UZR/150 +7.5 Moreland (2/32) +4.7 Santana (6/32) DRS 17 Moreland in 2251 innings (3/32) 11 Santana in 1782 innings (6/32)

Yes, I read that HRam is expected to be healthy enough to play 1B. Since we need a DH, we could sign a 1Bman and use HRam at DH. There has been no talk of using Devers at 1B next year by Sox management that I know of.

MLBTR suggested $7M x 3. I think we might have $38M or so to spend and stay below the second limit, so, if we sign JD and Shaw, we might not have enough for a quality SP'er and have a little left over for summer needs.

I have no idea how Cora will be as a manager, but I'm excited about what I've read, so far. I'm also thinking that we just needed a change to get players more aware of their own problem areas, such as excessive mental mistakes and blunders.

I'm not sure the Sox want to carry three 1B/DH types on the 25 man roster. HRam Adams Travis More likely, we play Adams or HRam at 1B and DH and use someone else to DH when one of them needs to sit or be platooned (Brentz? TBD?)

I wonder how much the owner made despite losing some fan viewership and attendance.

The overall evidence is inconclusive, but he does seem to struggle more with Vaz.... CERA 2015: 4.15 Hanigan (39 IP) 4.47 Swihart (107) 7.86 Leon (26) 2016: 2.52 Leon (107 IP) 3.45 Hanigan (16) 3.64 Vaz (94) 6.00 Swihart (6) 2017: 4.47 Leon (163) 5.36 Vaz (40) I'd be fine with giving Porcello to Leon, but we might need more offense when Porcello pitches.

We'll see.

If Vaz gets 120 games, I think Leon catches Sale and only Sale. Sale had a 2.63 ERA with Leon behind the plate. He pitched 209 out of 214.1 innings with Sandy.

The Angels sign Kebin Maitan & Livan Soto. So much for us swooping in on the best of the Braves mistakes.

Yes, that was Ben's downfall. He totally bombed out on free agent signings meant to keep us playoff competitive while the farm was built up to keep us winning for a long time. HRam & Porcello's good years came one year too late, but even if they had their 2016 seasons in 2015, we'd have still been ringless. On the payroll budgets-- not quite $200M... Red Sox: $175M in 2012 $156M in 2013 Champs $168M in 2014 $184M in 2015 (DD has been over $197M both years.) The Cubs spent $134M in 2011 thn went down every year to $92M in 2014 (The payroll has jumped to over $172M the last 2 years.) The Astros went totally over a cliff- on purpose. They went from $102M in 2009 to $77M by 2011 and a ghastly $26M by $2013. They've added almost $100M since then, and although that $124M is much less than the Sox, adding so much salary to a strong low paid core is a lot of money to spend in a short time. I doubt the Sox will ever adopt a strategy of such deep futility. This was not what I meant by a "cliff." I'm not sure what others feel about this. If Henry decides to keep the budget over $220M from 2020 to 2023 or 2024, then it is highly doubtful we finish in last place or that we will be viewed as total non competitors for consecutive seasons. I'll believe it when I see it.

Stanton is holding everything up. The FAs are waiting for the loser out of SF and STL to join in on the bidding for someone else (JD? Abreu?)

I'm ready to jump off a mole hill, if some big shoe doesn't drop soon. See, how I didn't mention the word associated with a sharp drop off of a land mass?

So, LT2EB. Sounds great!

Can we get JD, Cobb and Shaw and remain under the second penalty limit?

Too? I like what DD has done overall.

Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring it up this time.

I tried to just count major/key players or big contracts plus a few role players. I didn't include Thornburg, because he never pitched for us and is recovering from a very serious injury. Here's an updated & expanded look... Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.) Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M) Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M) Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M) Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary) Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M) Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018) JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018) Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021 Price $31M until the end of 2022 Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs) Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs) Role Players: Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M) Thornburg $2.05M + 1 more arb (hard to project) Holt ~$2M then 1 more arb (DFA?) Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs Wright ~$1M + 2 arbs Workman ~$1M + 2 arbs ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs Not Yet At Arb Barnes & Hembree 1 the 3 arbs Swihart 1 then 4 arbs Scott, Hernandez, Marrero 2 then 3 arbs Arb Years Not Set Lin, Maddox, Travis, Velazquez, Johnson, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Shepherd, Buttrey, Jerez, Owens Sunken Cost Coming Off the Books HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests) Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021 Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents. If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then. I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind.

I guess if Thornburg looks fully recovered, and Smith looks good, I'd consider trading Kimbrel, but I'm 99.9% certain DD wont even think about it. I'd also like to see what we'd get for him before saying it's a good idea. Another thing to think about: how many comp picks have we gotten recently? (Answer: 1 in the last 5 drafts in Kopech.) We could just look to get a comp pick for Kimbrel (and maybe Pom as well).

Sounds about right.

Nope.