moonslav59

I wouldn't be surprised if we go over the limit by $39.9M. Is that "drunken" in your opinion?

We're talking... Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton! I think bringing up Beni's name is the same breath is honoring Beni's value not diminishing or dismissing it.

I'd be curious to see what percentage of players decline two years in row between ages 22 and 27, the normal up stage on the way to the "peak prime" years of 26 & 27. (Only seasons with 100 PAs listed. If under 400, it is noted.) Bogaerts 21 .660 22 .776 23 .802 24 .746 JBJ 23 .617 (107 PAs) 24 .531 25 .832 (255) 26 .835 27 .726 Betts 21 .812 (213 PAs) 22 .820 23 .897 24 .803 Beni 21 .835 (118) 22 .776 Vaz 23 .617 (201 PAs) 24 DNP 25 .585 (184) 26 .735 (345) Leon 26 .439 (128) 27 .845 (283) 28 .644 (301) When looking at this age group of Sox players, it doesn't look horribly our of wack. At least Vaz showed some improvement. However, to see this and then see just about every player from 29-33 decline at the same time as well, I can't help but think it was terrible luck or a bunch of circumstances all occurred at the same time. I doubt there's a single explanation for it all.

I didn't take it that way. I'm not blind or getting worse, but the bold makes it easier for me.

Yes, and that's why I said the first 2 years should not count as much as the end up doing with players only in the league for 3-5 years. It's a disproportional influence that rarely bares out over a players middle 5-7 years or even their career. Players in the league 8-9 years have career numbers which have large enough sample sizes to not be greatly influenced by their first 2 years. Of course a player might end up being closer to their first 2 years than the immediate following 2-3 years, but I'm pretty sure a player's 3-4 year average is closer to what their career average ends up than their first 2 years. The bell curve is a pretty strong indicator for most players who play over 9 or 10 years. It's not perfect. There are often blips and outliers, but all I'm saying is that, if you randomly took any 5-6 players in the the league who have 3-5 years experience, it would be very rare to see just about all of them decline 2 years in a row and see a major decline in the 2nd of those two years. My guess is it was just bad luck (possibly with some bad influences like poor coaching and losing Papi's influence) and some or most will "right the ship", but sure there is a chance that the 2017 numbers are what all these guys truly are and will be. .

Probably the best indicator of norm would include dropping the best and worst years, but I'm talking specifically about players only in the league 2-5 years. Often, their first season or two influences their career number too much. Some players take a while to adjust. I'm not saying career numbers are useless. Maybe taking the career average and averaging it with the past 2 year sample size might be best. There are all kinds of "what ifs" like injuries in the past two years. A guy like JBJ is a tough one to figure out. Not only is he so streaky within a season, he's had two very long slumps before and after the 10 months from Aug '15 to May '17, where he was over .800. What's the real JBJ? What's his norm? Nobody knows. My point was that most players follow some sort of bell curve with blips and outliers here and there. I found it strange that all of our younger players, with the exception of Vaz went down at a time most are going up. Maybe their most recent "up" were all outliers at the same time- certainly that is possible, but it is not probable. My guess is some or most will bounce back and maybe 1 or 2 will do better than even 2016.

I don't know enough about anyone here to say I like or dislike anyone. Some posters are harder to get along with, especially those that get personal or misrepresent others' positions.

I think when looking at players with 3-5 years experience, counting a player's rookie or even second year in the bigs against him is not a very accurate way of determining what a player's "norm" is. Most players improve after their initial 1-3 years. Some start out great, and then pitchers discover how to get them out, so occasionally, you'll see a player with a nice first partial season and then drop off. In those cases, not counting their first year(s) helps get a more accurate picture of their "norm". We had a lot of players with 2-5 years of MLB experience. Here's a look at their 2015-2016 numbers combined and then their 2017 numbers: Betts .861 > .803 J B J .834 > .726 Pedey .814 > .760 HRam .804 > .750 Young .803 > 709 Bogey .789 > 746 Leon .720 > .644 Holt .719 > .548 Vaz .585 > .735 Moreland .767 >.769 I don't have any data, right now, to prove it, but I'm pretty sure a player that is pre-prime or prime and maybe even slightly post prime is more likely to come closer to his recent two year numbers than his career numbers. As you can see, the declines are less than from 2016 to 2017 alone, but the fact that everyone but Vaz declined and one stayed about even (Moreland).

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb) ~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3) yes ~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3) yes ~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3) yes, even if to trade him ~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4) yes ~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3) yes ~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4) yes ~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3) I guess, depending on prognosis ~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4) probably ~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3) yes ~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3) Depends on prognosis ~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender or trade ~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3) yes ~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3) yes ~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3) yes ~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender ~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4) yes $52.2M in arbs Max, we could lose about $6-7M to clear more space for a signing and some rule 5 guys. Thornburg, Holt, Ross and Rutledge

I was assuming we'd pay part of his salary. I bet the Dodgers would take him. The trade problem is Pedey's 10-5 rights. He's not going anywhere, unless we make him feel unwanted. I'm not FOR trading Pedey, but I'm open to good offers on anyone.

Sonny Gray finisihed 40th in SP'er WAR this year at 2.8. If you count the first 30 as "aces", then he's a solid #2 by WAR. He placed 33 in ERA- at 82 (better than Darvish). Her placed 30th in WHIP. Both these stats show him near top 30 and the "ace" status he once held before the injuries. From 2013 to 2015, he finished 14th in ERA- at 76 and 23rd in WHIP at 1.14. He had a 6.9 WAR from 2014 to 2015 (23rd in MLB). He's an ace when healthy. He was a solid #2 this year.

I wish we had Gray, especially at his cost. He's a solid #2 with a significant chance at being a #1 next season. The 24 year old, Montgomery, shows a lot of promise, but we'll see about next year. Can the Yanks sign Darvish and still get under the limit, like the said they wanted to do?

It's no secret I wanted JF fired for over a year. Even so, I was a little surprised it happened.

Nice article. Thanks for the link. I'm glad he's okay.

I thought EE was going to get more than $20M. We may have been able to sign him and stay below the limit, but we'd have had no Moreland, no Nunez, No Reed, No Davis and in hindsight, we could have traded Young and/or Holt to make it fit. I do think resetting the luxury tax was a high priority. Let's hope we did it for a reason, and "make-up" for not signing EE by doing what to takes to get JD or Moose.

Where do I sign?

I'd prefer $84M/4, but to get him it might take 5. Every big FA signing is an overpay. You either do it, stand pat or make big trades that open more holes elsewhere or compromise the future. I'm not saying pay him "whatever it takes", because there are limits. His defense is not much better than EE, so maybe all he gets is $66M/3.

Bradley is what he is. 2016 was the anomaly. He's going to be a 2-3WAR player who will hit a touch better than the average CFer and play lights out defense. You don't need to platoon him. But you also shouldn't be lulled into thinking he can be a middle of the order bat. He hits 8th or 9th in a good lineup and you live with the middling offensive production Maybe 2017 was the anomaly, after all, he maintained an .830+ OPS for 2015 and 2016 (8 months total). My guess is, he settles somewhere in between (.780ish).

MLBTR thinks he might get 6 years! I'm thinking $100M/5.

I love JBJ, but Beni has more years of control, so to me, Beni has more value.

But, but, but, he's "CLUTCH!"

From s%Dewey: My general take on the season is this, and keep in mind that I'm "old school" and therefore believe in some of the old adages. Our pitching staff was better than "good enough" so that's not an issue. For the first time in forever, I'm not for acquiring a pitcher. I wouldn't be against the idea, but I think with all the returning players, we'll be strong and deep. We were not "solid up the middle". Catching and CF were solid defensively but Bogaerts is nothing more than a serviceable defensive SS and never has been. His plus was his offense which became mediocre this year. 2B could not have been called any better than mediocre with Pedey missing 1/3 of the season and during those times was replaced with more mediocrity. Power has to come from the corner positions and DH and we didn't get real power from any of them. Add in the defensive nightmare that was 3B and you find a seriously flawed team. IMHO the biggest reason the Sox won their division is because it took so long for the Yankees to gel. And I gagged when typing that. Good take, and problems not easily fixed without major shake-ups- yes, plural. More and more, I'm warming to the idea of moving Devers to 1B. I'm not sure we can afford a season or longer learning curve within the tight window we are in right now. Selling low on Bogey does not make sense, but I'm all ears on any inquiries. Finding a capable back-up for Pedey is a high priority, but spending large on a sub when money is tight, could be an issue. I'm for sticking with JBJ, because I love great D up the middle, and I'm hopeful he can find a way to be more consistent. We're stuck with HRam, but that doesn't mean we can't plan to upgrade 1B AND DH. This team has too many question marks going forward. Will Beni find more power? (Yes) Agree Will JBJ find more power? (Who cares, if he can play CF the way he does.) Agree Will Will Mookie find more power? (Great defensive player who can hit for a good average and at least acceptable power) I think Mookie hits 30 again next year. I think he had wrist issues this year. Will Devers learn to play defense? (Who knows? And to make this situation even worse, Butterfield may go because with Farrell did) I doubt Devers gets close to average on D by the end of 2018. Will Bogaerts improve on either side of the ball? (Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe what we saw this year is who he is, or maybe he was injured. I've given up on his D, which kills me. I think he's our lead-off hitter next year and does well on O. Will Pedey ever be the Pedey we knew and loved? (Nope, so get over it) Just be healthy most of the year and as close to 100% as possible for October-- maybe too much to ask. Is Moreland a 1B for a championship team? (Not at all) Totally agree. Bring him back is saying our 2017 offense was good enough. Will the real Hanley Ramirez please stand up? He will... I hope. So of the nine players listed I see five question marks with negative or unknown answers. Well just about all declined from 2016 and most declined 2 years in a row. For their ages, that does not make too much sense. I'm hopeful at least half show improvement. Here's what I know for sure. 3B is still a problem. It looked better with Devers there only because the guys before him set the bar as low as they did. 1B is a problem because we need some power from this team and IMO the easiest/best way to find it is at 1B. Maybe, we already found our 1Bman: Devers. (That would solve the defense problem on the left-side infield. Is there a worse place to be weak on D?) Then, sign Moose... maybe even Moose and Squirrel, I mean Moose & JD. Let's start there. Martinez may not completely solve our problems but him or a player like him is a start. I want to see Devers playing baseball somewhere all winter @ 3B. I don't give a s*** if he's only 20 years old. It's time to find out if he's going to be able to handle that position and deal with what we learn. I am ambivalent about Bogaerts. He's mediocre and can be replaced with more mediocrity. If we can include him in a trade landing a power hitter and a(nother) mediocre shortstop, go for it. It improves the team and also gets rid of a Bora$$ client. It would be acceptable to have a light hitting solid defense UIF and we've got a couple of those in the minors. I'd have to see what we are offered for Bogey, but I'm all ears.

I've always been open to trading anybody, if I felt it helped the team. I'm open to trading starters for Stanton, but only if the plan includes filling the new holes with bonafide players and not guys like Travis, Hernandez, Lin, Marrero or Holt-- not that this is what you want either. I'd like to hold onto Beni and Devers, but at least including Beni does not open a hole, since Stanton would play LF. If we trade JBJ and Bogey, I'd want Cozart or something better than anything we have in-house.

Trading Pedey, if he'd okay the deal, would help us not having to worry all the time plus save us money, but I doubt he OK's any trade.

Didn't a Sox player hurt himself on a screen door?