moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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No. I don't actually agree with the defensive numbers on JBJ. I think he's top 5 on defense. I posted the numbers to show he has value. I think he's worth more than the numbers indicate.
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I said "at least 50%", but you are right, It's much more than 50 to Theo. I will say, we don't win without the Dodger dump deal AND Uehara (the best closer numbers we've ever had), Vic (.801) and Naps (.842- better than Moreland/HRam) plus to a lesser extent Drew(.777 better than the 2017 Bogey), Gomes (.771), Carp (.885 OPS), Peavy and converting Andrew Miller from a failed SP'er to an awesome RP'er.
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Yes, and since JBJ's projected salary is just $6M, if we can save about that much by trading HRam, it's a clear no-brainer-- trade HRam NOT JBJ. In fact, I'd prefer to just give HRam away and play $21M or his $22M plus cover the same on the pending vesting option than trade 3 years of JBJ away. The one drawback is that if we sign JD, give HRam away and keep JBJ we likely will have nothing left to add to our pitching staff. Trading JBJ for a SP'er of equal salary would help in that area.
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Let's see how all the Yankee kids handle being the favorites. The Sox saw reductions from just about everyone last year. Maybe the same happens to NYY next season.
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Agree. With Vaz and Leon, I think most of our pitchers would quickly grow accustomed to the other guys and be very close to the same as before. The problem arises with the learning curve and how much we can afford to tinker with the established set-ups, assuming our goal is to get Vaz more starts. If we push for him to get 4 out of 5 starters, either Sale or Porcello has to switch, unless you want to mix and match withe those two.
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Kind of. The foundation for our two division wins were largely based on Ben's foundation with a significant input from Theo's players. The 2013 ring was at least 50% on Theo, but if you agree, then certainly Ben & Theo get the lion share of our recent two division wins..
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Or, we'll just decide to keep Kimbrel, Pom and extend one of our young stars.
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When using OPS and UZR/150, the number of games is not a factor. The threshold is still high enough to weed out players who hardly played at all. 11th in OPS and 11th in UZR/150 makes him pretty close to top third in my book. If you want to knock him down some for his most recent "off year", fine. He's still top 15 to me, no matter how you slice and dice. That has significant vale.
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Exactly, that's why I lower the PA threshold until it reaches 30. If you take out Betts and Cespedes, the "qualifying player list from 2015-2017 is 32. JBJ placed.... 11th in WAR out of 32. 11th in OPS 8th out of 30 in DRS 11th in UZR That looks pretty much like he is close to top 3rd tier. Even if you call him average, that has a lot of value.
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If someone thinks the #10 offensive CF'er (15th at worst) and top 5 defensive CF'er is hardly valuable at all, they need glasses.
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Not true about not being "very good offensively," unless you look at just 2017 numbers. Out of 34 CF'ers with 1,000 + PAs from 2015-2017, JBJ places,,, (They have Betts and Cespedes listed as CF'er) 13th in OPS at .793 (certainly very good) 6th in ISO at .201 10th in HRs at 53 9th in RBIs at 193
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I'm talking about the physical the other team would give HRam assuming we trade him this winter.
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According to MLBTR's list of top FAs, the top 12 have yet to sign. The winter is not over.
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...and a ring before that and the foundation directly responsible for 2 straight divisional champions.
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Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported "several" teams have had discussions with the Red Sox regarding Bradley. Rob Bradford of WEEI added the Kansas City Royals have interest, but there does not appear to be an obvious fit. The Guardians have reportedly asked about JBJ for years.
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I'd play HRam more than Moreland despite the defensive loss at 1B. GMs do not look at just the one previous season. (I'm assuming he passes a physical, otherwise, his value is negative.)
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According to fangraphs, Bogey, but JBJ was 3rd. 5.3 Betts 3.2 Bogey 2.3 JBJ 2.2 Beni 1.9 Pedey 1.6 Vaz 1.2 Nunez 0.9 Moreland 0.9 Devers WAR per game: 0.0346 Betts 0.0315 Nunez 0.0216 Bogey 0.0181 Pedey 0.0173 JBJ 0.0162 Vaz 0.0155 Devers 0.0146 Beni 0.0060 Moreland 0.0035 Leon
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I wonder if some of these "preferences" are a result of being paired with one particular catcher from day one and the comfort grew from there, or if there really is a genuine, pitcher-handling difference between Leon & Vaz. For example, had Sale started the year with Vaz, we might now be saying Vaz should remain Sale's personal caddy.
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It's not "money saved." We're over the luxury limit already.
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He has enough potential to carry more than $2M. Look, someone took Buchholz last winter! If that doesn't show potential value = dollars, what does? HRam is 1 year removed from a $2.7 WAR year and 3 years removed from a 3.4 WAR. 4 years ago he put up a 5.1 WAR in a half season at age 29. Yes, he turns 34 in a couple days, but he's worth more than $2M. My guess is, if he was a FA, he'd sign for at least $6-8M/1. If we offered to pay $15M of his $22M plus some sort of cash for the vest, if it happens, we'd find a taker.
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HRam and his agent will hit the roof, if they try to pull a "phantom DL" on him. He will not be DFA's either. He has value, even if we trade him and pay $15M of his $22M contract. That $7M can buy a RP'er. Apparently, the surgery went well, and he's supposed to be able to play 1B next year. We should know more by ST'ing, but my guess is, HRam is the FT DH on opening day. If we sign JD, we will trade JBJ or create some kind of modified platoon like this.... Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. He rides the bench when a lefty starts. HRam plays 1B vs all LHPs. He DHs vs some RHPs and ends up with just under the PAs needed to vest. JD plays DH vs most RHPs and LF vs some RHPs and all LHPs. Beni plays CF when JD is in LF. Benis sist vs half the LHPs. JBJ sits vs half the LHPs and some RHPs. Betts gets rested vs RHPs only. It's not ideal having JBJ on the bench so much, but if any one of our OF'ers or 1B/DH get hurt, he's back to FT. IMO, we'll trade him for a SP'er.
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Actually, 2016 was worse than 2018 for HRam.
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Well, he's on the DL. I put him 8th, because that's where Marco will hit. My guess is that if Pedey returns to form, he'll move up to the 1 or 2 slot. If not, he may bat 6th or 7th. A lot depends on how the rest of our batters are doing when he returns.
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Stanton: I KNEW there was a reason I didn't like Jeter!
moonslav59 replied to Carter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Why? They had already saved the $30M. They also could have made GS sweat it out until he expanded the teams interested. -
From what I've heard JD is great in the clubhouse.
