moonslav59

Fair enough, but the whole system is a joke.

Again, you are assuming a player's value is exactly what his value was in just the previous year. Other times, you use last 2-3 year sample sizes to make a point. My guess is GMs do not value HRam at $22M, but they don't view him as a negative either, assuming he recovers from surgery. Ziegler will be 38 next year. I get why the Marlins would not want HRam. Plus, they already have a 1Bman and do not have a DH in their league. They'd probably take Castillo (especially if they trade Stanton) for Ziegler and Volquez, but that would blow up our luxury tax number.

Why should how weak the AL West is or how close the wild card race was matter for who wins the MVP? If the Yanks won the WC by 10 games and the Astros won the AL West by 2 games, then Altuve wins the MVP? Not in my world. Why should having other good players on your team matter as well. I get the "valuable" vs "best" argument, but I feel a player should not be penalized for having other good players on his team. It should be an award for the best player- hitter or pitcher. Most of these awards are jokes. There's no set standards on any of them. For these reasons, they mean close to nothing to me.

I've been against Hosmer all along, and my support of the idea of signing Moose and moving Devers to 1B has been losing my confidence the more closely I look at Moustakas. He's not a great fielder. He has a low OBP. His massive power could have been an outlier. To me, it's JD or Stanton, with Upton and/or Santana (or Upton and Duda) being secondary choices. 1. JD Martinez 2. Stanton 3. Upton and Santana 4. Upton & Duda 5. Upton & a 1 year fix at 1B 6. Santana & a decent 4th OF'er/DH 7. Moustakas & a decent 4th OF'er/DH 8. ?????

People need to stop these "Duda/Alonso" stopgap suggestions that would only lead to an eventual grievance from the union and make Boston a less desirable stop for other free agents). All HRam has to do is play well in 2018,an d he'll get his 497 PAs, even with Duda and JD on the 25 man roster. He may file a grievance, if he sucks next year and misses out on 497, but he won't win. I'm not buying the idea that serious damage will be done to the Sox image, in terms of future free agent signings. If HRam sucks in 2017, it will be basically 3 out of 4 years falling short or way short of expectations. A team should be able to make plans to mitigate serious problems on their teams. He is having surgery, so signing someone good as insurance should not be an affront to HRam. Like I said, if HRam stays healthy and plays well, he can and should still get over 500 PAs next year. JD Martinez plays the OF whenever any of them needs a rest or gets hurt. That should be at least 100 PAs in the field. If JBJ keeps struggling, he may get more "rest" than is needed, so that number could be closer to 150 that 100 PAs with zero OF injuries. JD has only played more than 123 games once in his career. He's only gotten over 517 PAs once. That being said, let's assume he gets 650 like he did this year. That's 150 in the OF and 500 at DH. That leaves about 200 PAs at DH and 700 at 1B. That's 900 PAs total for Duda and HRam to split, assuming absolutely no injuries at LF, CF, RF, 1B and DH (highly unlikely). If HRam can't play well enough to get 500 out of those 900 PAs, then he has no beef. If he plays well, and we still keep him from getting 497, then he has a beef. I doubt we bench him, if he's doing better than Duda and JBJ (or even Beni vs LHPs).

I agree. I think 5 years might get him, but even that is a year or two too long. However, I'd still do it. Trading for Stanton would open too many other holes, although, if we miss out on JD or Moustakas, I'd go hard after Stanton (with Bogey, if needed).

Zeigler has negative trade value. Volquez is close to zero trade value. Together, these two cancel out HRam's salary. Gordon has value, but is getting paid a lot.

He didn't do badly while playing hurt all year. Too much emphasis is placed on most recent production. Baseball is not a game that most recent output is a good predictor of what is to come. Certainly, there is a correlation in most cases, but so is the last 2, 3 and 4 year sample sizes. BTW, out of 34 second basemen with 400+ PAs, Pedey still finished... 19th in WAR at +1.0 (which is a higher ranking than several other "healthy players" on his team placed at their positions.) 21st in OPS at .760 18th in wRC+ at 102 18th in wOBA at .331 1st in UZR/150 at 9.7 (3rd in UZR, which is a cumulative stat.) Yeah, it sucks when you can't count on a player to play nearly everyday. That's a reality. He will likely miss a big chunk of next year and force the Sox to use Hernandez, Lin, Holt or Marrero for several months. That hurts. I get it. I just don't think Pedey was a major reason we did not advance any farther this year.

This city is going nutty!

How about this? Trade: Brian Johnson & Bobby Dalbec Hembree ~$1M Holt ~$2M Arb HRam $22.75M x 1 or 2 yrs ($22M luxury) Castillo $37.7M/3 Total: $63.5M ($25M luxury) For: Gordon: $37M/3 ($10M luxury) Volquez $13M/1 ($11M luxury) Ziegler $9M/1 ($8M luxury) Total: $59M ($29M Luxury)

2Bmen since 2011 WAR 35.0 Cano 31.5 Pedey 30.2 Kinsler PAs 1. Cano 4761 2. Kinsler 4761 3. Zobrist 4356 4. S Castro 4342 5. Altuve 4311 6. Phillips 4274 7. Pedey 4273 2013-2017 WAR 6. Pedey 19.2 PAs 9. Pedey 2919 2014-2017 WAR 6. Pedey 14.0 PAs 12. Pedey 2195 2016-2017 WAR 8. Pedey 7.3 PAs 12. Pedey 1161 wRC+ 6. Pedey 114

Trading draft picks would turn the cliff into a wide canyon.

Not really.

Yes! Then, not only could we trade away the farm, we could trade away our future farm!

MLBTR... Red Sox number four overall prospect Sam Travis received his first small taste of major league action this year. But he didn’t fare as expected in the power department, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. Alex Speier of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) writes that he spent a lot of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. Still, Travis has been seen in recent years as player with a big-league ready bat who needed to improve his defense at first base, and the former second-rounder’s offensive performance didn’t match the billing in 2017. His vastly improved defense, however, has led the organization to give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.

Interesting that you assume you know my thoughts. I may be losing my memory in my old age, but I did remember the hit. I remember that I thought the right fielder should have caught the ball and then I think he misplayed the bounce off the wall or something.

Like I tell some of my struggling ESL students, "try chunking your reading."

I'm not worried either. I've been through decades of ineptitude and heart-breaking close calls. I'm happy we have a contending team for 2-3 more years, and I don't think the cliff will be long lasting. I'll take a ring and a couple non contending years to follow.

The statement was made within the context of either this or Henry turning the Sox into the Dodgers East. How much will it cost to sign 3 aces or solid #2's? That's a third of the luxury budget right there- on just 3 guys. It's not just the 3 starting pitchers either. Look at the outlook on our everyday players: Beni, Devers then who? Chavis and Travis? Lin and Chatham? Ockimey? Flores might turn out to be very good, but even he won't be ready by 2020 or 2021. To me, it is so obvious we have very few high quality players and prospects under team control through '20-'21. Are we counting on our drafts in 2018 and 2019 to produce ML ready stars by 2020-2021? Are we counting on 8-10 players on the farm now to rise up quickly into stars or near stars by then? Ever time we traded guys like Espinoza, Margot, (Moncada and Kopech- I wanted to trade for Sale), Basabe, Dubon and others, I kept hearing from the same cliff- deniers that these guys were only speculative value and that maybe one or two might have amounted to anything anyways. Now, some of the same posters are putting all their trust in lesser prospects to somehow miraculously thrive and grow into quality players at a higher rate of success in just 2-3 years time. It's like climate deniers saying, "We'll find a way to fix the problem, when it gets very drastic." The old ways of buying the best international free agents are gone. The old ways of drafting better players late in the first round due to "signing issues" are gone. The only way we win in 2020-2021 is to spend in ways we've never seen and/or develop non top 100 prospects, including a SP'er or two, into stars like we've never seen before in such quantities on this team. I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think I'm being a realist. Players under team control through the 2020 season: Boston Price (assuming no opt out) Pedey Beni Devers Maddox Hembree Scott Hernandez Johnson Marrero Taylor Last arb years: Betts JBJ Vazquez Wright Smith Leon Swihart Astros: Correa Bregman McCullers Reddick Gurriel Musgrove Last arb: Springer Giles Peacock Marisnick Devinski LAD Kershaw Bellinger Seager Turner Jansen Maeda Stripling A Barnes Urias T Thompson plus others and a much better farm Last arb Pederson C Taylor Y Garcia P Baez I don't want to get depressed, but here are the Yanks... Judge Severino Sanchez Chapman Bird Montgomery Torreyes Frazier Green Ellsbury Castro (opt) A Taylor and many more plus a much better farm with near ML ready prospects Last arb Kahnle Shreve

Is Wendell Kim available for 3B coach duries? LOL!

not mentioning it is does not mean I forgot it. One could make the point that we got so close to elimination in part because of Papi being 1 for 21 apart from that big hit. It reminds me of the argument used by John Elway fans. "Look at all the comebacks!" I reply, "Why behind so often?" Look, I'm not taking anything away from Papi. The guy was amazing! Nobody has ever come through when it counted more than he did. Ever. Not even close. Even the series with the Tigers in '13. He sucked all series and then hit the grand slam that changed everything. The guy is a living legend. (BTW, I love seeing him as a commentator. He's funny and insightful.)

1) I'm not so sure Stanton will cost that much, if the team takes on his whole salary. 2) We shot for a 3 year window, and one is already gone. Waiting one more year for Machado pretty much pisses one more away.

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list. Basically, obliterating the cliff depends on these three just about all becoming aces or strong #2 types. Pardon me, if I am not that optimistic. I like all three, but I've seen too many promising Sox pitching prospects fall short of expectations.

Kimbrel and Pom were not "tremendous" in 2016. They have been great for one year out of three years of control with one more to go. I was not for emptying the farm. I would not have chosen this path. I've been clear on that. Trades for guys like Sale and Quintana are much different. Both were under team control for 3-5 years when I was advocating those trades AND (and this is equally important) their salaries were dirt cheap for players of their caliber. That allows us to spend elsewhere. Kimbrel was making top dollar for a closer when we traded 4 prospects for him. The closer cost sky-rocketed afterwards, and I have stated that this has improved the judgement of the trade in a big way. When we traded for Kimbrel, I said I felt he was and would continue to be a top 3 closer for the 3 years of control. I never downplayed his value in that way. I do, however, feel closers are over-valued, but that's a different debate. My views on trading Sox prospects have changed once our GM decided to shoot for a window/cliff philosophy. I am temporarily fine with trading more prospects to insure we do win a ring within the window and accept that a cliff will be a result. I don't see a 5 year cliff with a team like ours. We may be closer to last place than 1st for 1-2 years and then could bounce back. We made the bed. It's time to sleep in it and win a ring or two before the bed rolls off the cliff.

We are not Tampa North either. The team has a very large payroll and will maintain one. We were one of the top salary teams those 3 years we finished last. Certainly spending big does not guarantee no "cliff." The team is actually using its farm the way large market teams do use them - keep your stars and use other stuff to supplement. They got pretty good quality in all of their trades so far, and the guys they identified as keepers seem at worst highly defensible. There's not enough the young, low cost player available for 2020 or 2021. Look how many Dodger and Astros players are homegrown. Look at the list I provided of homegrown players available to the Sox in 2021. Light years apart. No team has a farm system which produces star prospects forever. Kids graduate, and then there is some gaps in AA/AAA for a bit. Question now is whether Dombrowski can fill those gaps in. Obviously the evidence is inconclusive. Remember, at the time of the cliff, none of the Red Sox most important position players will be 30. The "cliff" as it were is entirely within the Red Sox control. Yes, exactly, that's why there are no more dynasties. Teams shoot for windows and rebuilding phases, unless they can spend like the Dodgers, who try to keep the farm intact while spending like maniacs. There may not be a cliff, if Henry spends like a maniac in 2020 (or earlier). If he doesn't, there is only a slim chance we can be highly competitive, and that involves being very productive, or lucky, with almost all of our draft picks and international signings. What's our 2020 budget going to be, if we keep Sale, Betts, Kimbrel, Pom and maybe Bogey and JBJ? What will the arb costs be to the ones not up for free agency? It's not as easy as it looks. Yes, dropping HRam, Pablo and Porcello's contracts will help, but there is no doubt we are going to have to spend like never before to fill all the obvious holes left be depleting much of our farm for this window. Until I actually see Henry do it, I'm seeing a cliff coming.