moonslav59

Well, some fans just enjoy watching baseball, winning or otherwise. Obviously, the teams that suck every year still draw thousands of fans and TV viewers, but I do think if your home team is highly competitive once every 5 years or so, it's easier to stay a fan through tough times.

Sox OPS 1.252 Betts 1.060 Moreland 1.015 JMart .949 Bogey .920 Holt .798 HRam .766 Devers .728 Beni .625 Nunez .535 JBJ .528 Lin .491 Vaz .450 Swihart .445 Leon

Maybe I'm a wishful thinker, but I expected Smith to struggle for a while. I think we will improve. Yes, Thornburg's return is not something to count on, but there is a chance he and Smith can take up the slack left by a departing Kimbrel. Of course, we'd be better with all 3, but since Smith and Thornburg have given us nothing, so far, once could hope that both could replace Kimbrel next year, and it's not robbing Peter to pay Paul. Replacing Pom might be harder, but right now, we're on top of MLB without Pom helping at all. Perhaps losing him won't be as bad as we thought in March. I know we'll need a lot to go right. I agree that we need to not let HRam vest, but I still think the "window" is wider than many feel it is. To me, it is 4 years: 2017-2020. Maybe this year, on paper, is our best chance, but I like our chances the next 2 years as well.

DD traded a lot for Kimbrel, Thornburg & Smith. He also spent a huge amount of our payroll on Price. He created a strong window period that is about half way over.

The solution is probably to let teams that can't stay competitive due to the lack of revenue fold, but that will not happen. I do think some teams should move, but instead they get public funded new stadiums that all but guarantee they will stay in a miserable market for decades.

We are not even remotely close to being in trouble. We have Pedey and Thornburg in the wings, ERod and Pom shaking off the cobb webs and surprises like Velazquez and Poyner filling some gaps. It's been one month. Every year you will find 2-3 players that start out slow. Stop being chicken little. This team is for real.

So, does that mean you've seen improvement?

While we might not be able to add much in the next two years with spending, we could lose Pom & Kimbrel and still be pretty good, assuming we get healthier than this year and/or maybe guys like Velazquez, Poyner and _____ step in. We've basically played all this year without Thornburg, Pedey and Marco. I'm sure injuries will happen next year, too, but we might be able to be "as good" in 2019.

Things won't get better in 2020, despite losing Pablito's contract. Just keeping Sale will take a $20M raise.

Nobody is saying we should bench him or move him to 1B or DH this year. Have you seen any improvement at all? Just curious.

I think ATL tried to get better.

Can anyone truthfully say they've seen any defensive improvement over last year?

Some minor league numbers: .348 4 18 Dubon (.922 OPS) .299 5 20 Basabe (1.017) .244 5 18 Guerra (.807) 0-1 3.00 Kopech (1.17 WHIP- 38k/30 ip) MLB .263 6 15 Moncada (.868) .217 1 7 Margot (.496)

So, if Bogey & JBJ make $4M more (combined) than my projections, we'll have about $10M to spend or $32M, if HRam does not vest. Unless we lose HRam, we probably can't sign Pom or Kimbrel. I guess we could trade JBJ or some other big contract to free up enough to keep one.

Sale was great, today. Nice win. Too bad the Yanks rallied to pull out the win after being down 4-0 in the 8th.

I totally agree, we aren't moving Devers off 3B, but this could be how we might line things up, assuming we trade the prospects gotten by trading Pom and prospects for Machado. 1. Betts RF 2. Machado 3B 3. HRam/Moreland 1B 4. JMart LF 5. Bogey SS 6. Devers DH 7. Beni CF 8. Pedey/Nunez 2B 9. Vaz

2019 in $'s 31 Price 22 JDM 22 HRam (vest) 21 Porcello (last control year) 14 Pedey 13 Sale 7 Moreland 4 Nunez 5 Vaz______ ~140 Total under contract ARBs Estimated 17 Betts (2nd of 3rd: $10.5 this year) 12 Bogaerts (3 of 3: 7.1) 8 JBJ (3 of 4: 6.1) 4 ERod (2 of 4: 2.4) 2 Thornburg (3 of 3: 2) 1 Smith (2 of 3: .8) 1 Wright (2 of 3: 1.1) 1 Barnes (1 of 3) 1 Hembree (1 of 3)____ ~$47M Arb players Expendable: 2.5 Holt (3 of 3: 2.2) 2.0 Leon (3 of 4: 2.0) 1.0 Swihart (1 of 4) FA 12.5 Kimbrel 8.5 Pom 3.8 Kelly That's about $187M on 18 players. Add about $13M for the other 22 players and we're at about $200M for 40 players (no Holt, Leon or Swihart. No Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. Add $14M for player benefits and $18M for Pablito, and we;re at $232M. The 2019 threshold will be $206M. That puts us over by about $26M by my calculations. If we want to go right up to $40M line, we'll have close to $14M to spend on keeping 1 from Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. It does look like we can't keep Kimbrel or Pom as long as HRam vests. We can keep Kelly, Holt, Leon and Swihart, and maybe add a $3M player. That's it. If HRam does not vest, we'll have close to $36M to spend. With that money we might be able to keep Pom & Kimbrel and certainly Kelly and one from Pom/Kimbrel.

Not "everyone", but your point is well taken.

The heavy penalty is at $40M over the limit, so one could argue that being just under is pretty close to "reckless" already. We are just under that number now. I could see us staying $35-39M below the max penalty line through the "window" period. That is still not going to be enough to keep everybody important. HRam's option is going to prevent us from keeping Pom or Kimbrel, and the next year will bring similar choices. I do feel going over the $40M mark would be a bit reckless and would give our team the reputation as being the "New Yankees or Dodgers".

He's also our "enforcer."

Moreland's got his OPS over 1.000 now! I'm not supersticious, but I'm afraid to stop bashing him out of fear he may slump.

Of course, the way Moreland is playing, he deserves to stay playing. I was looking at what might might be going on when Pedey returns. Maybe Nunez is still sub .700 when that happens, and my scenario looks back burnerish.

Great to see Beni come to life. He needs to be consistent. HRam keeps getting big RBIs. Kimbrel is buttah. ERod fell apart, Keep winning!

Well said. Let me as you this hypothetical question. Assuming Pedey comes back to near top form and can play 6 of 7 games at 2B with plus defense. Is playing Nunez in LF, Beni in CF and keeping JMart at DH a respectable option? Nunez has decent OF defensive metrics. Pedey improves the IF defense which partially offsets the loss of defense in the OG. I'm not saying I'm for the idea, right now, but if JBJ is hovering around .500 by June, I may be open to at least doing this at times.

Since both Pom and Kimbrel are FAs after this year, what about trading both for prospects to flip for Machado & Bleier?