moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I was comparing their 3B skills and got the numbers from fangraphs.
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The WAR is pretty even, but then you look at how the teams did, how Betts reached 30-30. He's even got more RBIs while batting first. It should be a lock.
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He's got 9 or 10 days off before game 1. We'll see.
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I'm going with 6 IP 12 Ks and 1 ER.
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I got us at about $206M counting player benefits, arbs and no free agent signings or re-signing (also no Thornburg/Smith). The threshold is $206M, so we'll have nothing to spend, if we want to reset next year, unless we trade salary. Details here: (in Luxury Tax Dollars) $31.0M Price $22.0M Martinez $20.6M Porcello $18.5M Sandoval $15.1M Pedroia (corrected) $15M Sale $6.5M Moreland $5.0M Nunez $4.5M Vazquez (138M Sub Total) Arb Estimates $18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs) $12M Bogaerts (3/4) $9M Bradley (3/4) $6M Rodriguez (2/4) $4M Holt (3/3) $2.5M Wright (2/3) $2.5M Leon (3/4) $1.5M Barnes (1/3) $1.0M Hembree (1/3) $1.0M Swihart (1/4) ($58M Sub Total) $196M Total for 17 Roster Slots Bubble/Non Tender Arbs? $2.5M Thornburg (3/3) $1.0M C Smith (2/3) $10.5M twenty-three players on 40 man roster $14.5M player benefits $221M Total (Corrected) 2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $25M to spend and these major holes to plug: 1. Closer 2. Set Up man 3. Set Up man 4. 2B and/or 3B 5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF
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No game tonight, so a look at 2019...(before any trades or signings/re-signings) Corrected.... (in Luxury Tax Dollars) $31.0M Price $22.0M Martinez $20.6M Porcello $18.5M Sandoval $15.1M Pedroia $15M Sale $6.5M Moreland $5.0M Nunez $4.5M Vazquez ($138M Sub Total) Arb Estimates $18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs) $12M Bogaerts (3/4) $9M Bradley (3/4) $6M Rodriguez (2/4) $4M Holt (3/3) $2.5M Wright (2/3) $2.5M Leon (3/4) $1.5M Barnes (1/3) $1.0M Hembree (1/3) $1.0M Swihart (1/4) ($58M Sub Total) $196M Total for 17 Roster Slots Bubble/Non Tender Arbs? $2.5M Thornburg (3/3) $1.0M C Smith (2/3) $10.5M the other twenty-three players on 40 man roster $14.5M player benefits $221M Total 2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $25M to spend and these major holes to plug: 1. Closer 2. Set Up man 3. Set Up man 4. 2B and/or 3B 5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF
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Well said. Even if he remains a top 3 closer for maybe 4 of the 5 years he'll likely get, his cost will be crippling, unless Henry wants to straddle the $40M over line for a half a decade or longer. Until I see that, I'm thinking we will try to go back to the luxury tax line at some point soon and maybe try to reset within a 2-3 year window.
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Are you sure? https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
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Nunez has looked good at 3B this year but not over his career.
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He probably had the biggest hit in the biggest moment of 2017 when he homered off Chapman.
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I hope you're right.
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More than Ramirez? Is it his defense that makes you like him more? He is an excellent defender and plays a key position. I guess that could be more valuable than the 75 point OPS lead Ramirez has. You've convinced me he belongs on the short list.
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I agree that Betts and Trout are above the others, but I don't see Bregman, Lindor or Chapman as legit. I'm counting JD, because of how he affected our team and how he came pretty close to the triple crown. Ramirez is legit.
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YES! Kimbrel vs no Kimbrel? Replace Pom with Wright/Johnson/Velazquez or go outside the system? How to rebuild the pen? Is Moreland our starter in 2019? (Devers to 1B? Chavis, Ockimey or Dalbec?) 2B? Pedey/Nunez/Holt/Hernandez/Quiro/Lin or someone else? 3B? Devers again? Platoon with Nunez? Of course, another trade JBJ thread. More urgent talk about 2020 (Bogey, Sale...)
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If Sale was the Patriots QB, then maybe....
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A bigger debate might be about signing a starter.
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I'd rather Wright starts, but I'm sure he'll get some chances.
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Maybe I'm being overly optimistic. I think his game back after his first DL was his best all year. That gives me reason to hope it never was anything major. I think he would have 180+ IP right now, if we were fighting for a playoff slot. I don't fault anyone for being concerned or very concerned. I do think 92 pitches was nice to see. He now has about 10 days off. I'm sure he'll pitch a simulated game or something in between. I will end with this, if he was at 100%, wouldn't this be a nice smoke screen to throw out there?
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I'd say 4.
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That was a bias against pitchers. Pedro was left off someone's ballot all together, as I recall.
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The "smoke screen" I'm talking about is the quotes made after the game. I think it's all pretend. Sale will be lights out in game 1 of the playoffs.
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I doubt Johnson makes it. Velazquez is bubble at best.
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Yes, I said "crucial error," and certainly Nunez or Holt have a significantly less chance of that, but even then... Devers 23 errors in 298 chances Nunez 7 errors in 101 chances The difference is not so great, when you even up the innings. The chances Devers make one more error than Nunez over 5 games is probably less than 50-50.
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It's all a smoke screen. Sale is going to blow the Yankees away in game 1. Book it.
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I agree that nobody knows, but the vast majority of players reaching their first FA year go for the largest and longest deal they can find, unless they are coming off an injury or poor year, and they want a 1 year deal to reset their value.
