moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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It shouldn't, but it does.
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I wouldn't put Hembree in the same class as Kelly and Pom. I wouldn't put any of these 3 on the PO roster, but Hembree is the best of the 3. Kelly is lost. Pom is, too.
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How about a significant chance we don't waste $100M?
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Is this game a hint that Eovaldi starts game 4 in NY, and ERod is our new pen arm?
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You are assuming Kimbrel remains "shut down". I do like the odds he does, but it's not a given. There's also a chance Allen rebounds and does nearly as well as Kimbrel in 2019-2020. I understand how having a great closer helps a team, a lot, but spending $20M x 5 is going way too far overboard.
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Certainly, the chances Kimbrel has a better year than Allen is significant. My point was to focus on the chances the rest of the pen "rebounds" or not. Adding another solid arm would certainly improve the chances that happens as well. If we can think of these choices as being close to even, I'd prefer signing 2 guys to short term deals over Kimbrel for 4-5 years.
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Maybe this thread should be retitled "The 2019 Bullpen Thread." I do worry about our closer slot next year, but our whole pen looks scary, and with limited funds likely available to spend on the pen, I'm not sure how much we can actually do. One could argue bringing Kimbrel back at the expense of not being able to upgrade the set-up men would be wasteful. Is anybody thrilled with this pen? Kimbrel Brasier Barnes Hembree Workman Wright Scott Thornburg Johnson Velazquez Smith Would it be any worse to have Cody Allen as our closer and be able to add a solid set-up man, too?
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The only close calls I see are... Workman (Poyner or Velazquez takes his place) Johnson or Hembree takes Velazquez's place. I won't be shocked, if Kelly makes it, or even Kelly & Hembree, especially if we go with 12 pitchers.
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I'm wondering if a 2018 ring makes a difference on our spending plans for 2019.
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I feel better bringing Wright in with men on base than anyone but Kimbrel and maybe Brasier.
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He's doing this SO we win in October- or at least increasing our odds of winning. It's the fans who think everyone needs to go 2-4 in their last game to guarantee they do well in the playoffs that get upset over this crap.
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I'm actually thrilled we are still winning games and coming close, despite resting many of our players. I love how Cora is handling the back stretch. This continuous complaining is tiring and needless.
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It likely will affect us, but right now, our middle men are hurting us, so maybe we can balance the loss of a great closer with the gain or a few middlemen. I'd like to see us get Cody Allen. His off season should bring his price down enough. He might even take a one year deal in hopes of hitting in big in 2020.
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To me, it's about who gets 2nd? JD or Ramirez?
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I wouldn't have Pom or Thornburg on the PO roster. I can see having Hembree, but I'd rather have Velazquez or Johnson. My 11 pitchers would be ... Starters: Sale Price Porcello Eovaldi Long Relief/Middle men: ERod Wright Set-Up: Brasier Barnes Workman Closer: Kimbrel Plus 1: (My order) 1. Poyner 2. Velazquez 3. Johnson 4. Hembree 5. Kelly 6. Scott 7. Cuevas 8. Thornburg 9. Pom
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I respectfully, disagree. Yes, Hembree, Pom, Thornburg and others have sucked lately, but Cuevas sucked just a few days and weeks ago. Do you really think Cuevas deserves to go based on 1 game? I'm fine with Hembree, Pom & Thornburg not going, but not for Cuevas. BTW, all of those 3 can pitch. They just suck right now.
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Like when, whoever does well the last week or two plays? This makes zero sense, to me. All good players go through slumps. If we benched every player who slumped, we'd have nobody left to play. We are going to go with the horses that got us here. Hopefully, Cora will get players rested or not rusty by game 1. I have confidence, despite our resent struggles on offense.
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But, the gain we get on the other end of the catching spectrum is so fantastic, it makes no sense to give that up for a couple hundred OPS points, at most. Plus, the cost to improve our catching position will keep us from signing RP'ers.
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I never ceases to amaze me how people are convinced on something over a one game sample size.
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He may take $95M/5, but he's not going $63M/3.
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I never thought of him. I think he hit 24 one year with KC.
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Millar? Maybe VTek?
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Yes, he could be great for 5 more years. I get that. I did hear the same thing about Papelbon years ago, and nobody is crying about letting him walk. One could easily argue Kimbrel is already showing signs of decline, despite last season's great numbers. His career xFIP- is 2.15. He had a great 2017 with a 1.50 number, but he's been over 2.15 in 4 of his last 5 seasons. 2.24 2.46 3.48 1.50 3.00 He's had his 3 highest HR/9 rates of his career in the last 3 years, and it's getting worse: 0.68 0.78 1.03 This year's numbers could be a lot worse but for the .218 BAbip this year, when his career mark is .261. I'm not trying to predict an immediate or eventual decline, but there are signs it has already begun. It's not just age progression warning charts. Look, I'd love to have Kimbrel for 3-5 more years. It's just going to cost too much and the risk-reward is just too scary for my liking. Offer him the QO. Take the draft pick and then use the $20M plus $10M more to sign 3-4 solid RP'ers, including 1 or 2 with closing experience (maybe a Cody Allen type).
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Because we are super tight with our budget, we have to spend wisely. We cannot fill every need area, unless Henry decides to radically depart from his history. I get the sense this $39.9M over the luxury tax thing is just a 1 or 2 year plan. Extending a multi year contract to Kimbrel pretty much forces us be $39M over for whatever his contract length is, or totally pack it in and accept the cliff. I suppose we could trade Kimbrel after 2019, but I doubt that is a plan. If Kimbrel bolts, we'll have enough money to sign multiple players, several of them would be solid RP'ers to shorter term deals. I think that is the way to go. I'm almost positive Kimbrel will get 4-6 years somewhere. He will likely get $18M+ per year. That's just way too much for team looking to keep the likes of Betts, JD, Sale, Bogey and others coming up to free agency as final arb years in the next 2-3 years. I firmly believe this is an either or situation, and I'd take Betts, JD, Sale or Bogey over Kimbrel every day of the week.
