moonslav59

Fair enough. I would bet, if I was a betting man, that at least one from Bogey & JBJ have a significantly better 2018 than 2017. I think Betts does better than 2017 but maybe not as well as 2016. I am also encouraged by getting more PAs from Nunez and Devers (at the expense of Pablo, Holt, Rutledge, Marrero...) Adding JDM would be a big plus, as we'd finally have our clean-up hitter. That allows the rest of our players to fill slots they are better suited for hitting. I expect Vaz to do a little worse. HRam and Pedey are wild cards. Moreland is what he is. Beni could be the key. He could have a huge year. He could be about the same. I've hopeful that our offense will get better, but adding JDM would turn my optimism into certainty.

Of course, players go up and down. Even players getting close to prime have dips in performance. Of course, injuries played a big role in the reasons for some of the dips. It's still rare for just about every significant returning player to all decline in the same year. Even the case of Leon, who everyone expected to decline, ended up 40 points below his career average from before 2016. He failed to meet his career norm that did not even include his big 2016 season. Everyone all at once is very rare. I remember some saying the 2013 season was a rare confluence of almost everyone having career best seasons or above norm seasons all at once. That season's numbers pale in comparison to 2017's massive and widespread decline. 8 out of 8. 9 out of 10. The 2013 season was something like 6 or 7 out of 10 had better years.

Yeah, Taylor might have been 5th or 6th on my time for DFA list. Maybe this shows just how close the bottom of out roster is to each other in value. Maybe our next signing is going to be a RP'er.

I was hoping the SD signing would stop your Hoze-love rant. When will this stop?

If Dickerson is nota worth $5M, why is JD worth over $20M? (BTW, you are right about why the Dickerson DFA shows how Brentz has to have no trade value.)

Again, I'm not arguing the declines were without excuses, and within the context of your argument with Kimmi, I get your point, but my point is that there was widespread under performance, much due to injury (more than we had in 2016), some due to expected decline by age curve expectations and some not really a wild surprise, but when you look at the fact that 8 of the top returning 8 PAs guys all declined at once, it's "widespread" as widespread can be.

One more thing... For argument's sake, least assume "career norm"= career OPS before 2017 vs 2017 OPS Career Player (age) 2017 .861 HRam (32) .750 massive decline, even for a playre at this age .811 Pedey (32) .760 pretty steep decline for this age .748 Young (32) .709 pretty significant decline (All-in-all, this group declined by more than their age might suggest the do.) .790 Pablo (29) .622 massive decline .705 Holt (28) .548 massive decline .681 Leon (27) .644 significant deecline (Again, for this age group, all excuses aside- a pretty significant decline.) .749 Bogey (23) .746 close to norm .855 Betts (23) .803 significant decline .726 JBJ (26) .726 at norm [awful start to early career affected "career norm"] .602 Vaz (25) .735 massive increase [only 385 PAs before 2017] (One would not expect an overall career norm or worse years for this age group. You expect improvement.) We got no met expectations for any age group.

When a player is nearing prime, you expect improvement not "regression to career norm, especially for young players who struggled out of the gate and then had 1.5+ decent seasons and are 1-3 years from peak prime. Career norm is not an indicator of future performance for a player below peak. Also, you keep mentioning Betts regression from his big year, but it doesn't explain why it was also less than 2015... same with Bogey & JBJ. Look, I get that many under performances were injury related, but we had injuries last year and the year before, and a few of these guys declined two straight years at ages where that is rare. Yes, I did put some of the blame on JF, and maybe that wasn't fair due to all the injuries, but it's not a mind construct to say there was widespread under performance, even if some was injury related. Even, if there was 2:1 odds that each of 10 player would decline, you'd expect at least 2-3 guys to increase their OPS. We saw 1. Leon, HRam & Pedi, yes. Fine to expect a decline, but even with those three, there were decent odds one might have a good year or at least even to 2016. Yes, including Beni with his small 2016 sample size can be ignored, but all of Betts, Bogey and JBJ declining at once was clearly against all odds, when you look at their place on the age curve expectation charts. I'm not a math guy, but if the odds that these guys would do worse were somewhere around this last March, we fell far short of performance expectations: Odds of doing worse: 95% Leon (but would it be projected at a 200 point drop?) 70% HRam (...a 116 point drop?) 65% Young (but not a 141 point drop) 60% Pedey (37 point drop was not unreasonable) 50% Holt (a 179 point drop?) 40% Betts 40% JBJ 35% Bogey Put all these together and it doesn't come to oh for 8. I'm fine with saying due to injuries, they did not "under perform," and we'd be largely just be arguing semantics, but the fact is all but one guy declined, and it wasn't because they all had big up years or outlier seasons in 2016. Many did worse in 2016 than 2015 and worse in 2017 when compared to 2015 as well.

You have to think something's wrong. You don't DFA 27 HRs and an .815 OPS unless there's more to the story. What was his arb cost?

Oh, yes, there are reasons for just about everyone who declined. Leon was expected. JBJ was streaky all along. Young was aging. Hot got a concussion. Yes, Bogey & HRam battled a injury. Beni's 2017 sample size was tiny. Betts is really the only one with no obvious excuse, and one guy declining is not a trend or widespread issue. The fact that all these things happened at once is freaky, to say the least. The fact that 6 of 8 declined from their 2016 to 2018 numbers might just mean these guys are just not as good as they promised they might be back in 2015-2016 or 2017. My hope is this has all been a fluke. Maybe Papi's departure had an influence on the 2017 to 2018 declines, but it will be short-lived. I seriously doubt we'll see 9 of 10 players decline again or even stay even in 2018.

For that to happen, we might have to trade JBJ (assuming we sign JD to play OF/DH) or Leon (so Swihart would be the lone back-up catcher. I'd be fine with Marrero being the first guy to go and mybe Elias being the second off the 40 man roster, but we just won't have room for JD, Nunez, Brentz and Swihart without some DL activity or trades.

How is 9 out of 10 players declining from 2017 to 2018 and 6 of 8 from 2016 to 2018 declining a "creation" of anybody's mind? I'm fine with disagreeing. I'm fine with blaming the loss of Papi, although that does not explain the declines from 2015 to 2 016. But, calling it a "creation of the mind" is indeed, belittling or condescending.

I know most or even all teams are facing the same roster crunch, but I'm wondering if there could be a taker out there that would take an out of options player for one with options, even if it's a slight step down for us or a prospect with a higher ceiling, but he might be far away from the bigs. Another option might be to trade 2 out of options players for one. Something like... Brentz & Johnson for a better 6th starter than Johnson Swihart & Johnson for a better 6th starter Brentz or Swihart and Hembree for a better RP'er than Hembree. Marrero & Brentz for a utility player with an option

Rajai Davis just signed with the Guardians, so there will be no complete 2017 reunion.

The thing is, unless there's an injury, none of these guys who seem to "deserve a shot" will get enough steady playing time to determine much about their value level and projected future. Brentz Swihart Marrero Johnson When we sign Nunez, Marco will not likely get his chance to prove anything. Even a guy like Holt, who had a few decent year and is overcoming concussion issues, probably deserves a chance, but will not get one.

I did see widespread under-performance. I don't think using deviation from career norms does justice to how players normally trend upwards as they near prime, stay close to the same during prime and then usually decline after peak prime. Our top 8 players by 2016 PAs declined in OPS in 2017- some by a lot. 9 of 10 returning players with 100+ PAs declined. 2016 PA - player-2016>2017 OPS Pre-prime players(20-26): 730 Betts ,897 > .803 719 Bogey .802 > .746 184 Vazquez .585 118 Beni .835 > 776 (Significant decline with 3 of 4 with players usually on the rise) Prime players (27-29): 636 JBJ .835 > .726 324 Holt .705 >.548 283 Leon .845 > 644 (Massive declines for all 3 in middle of prime years) Just post-prime (30-32): 698 Pedey .825 >.760 620 HRam .866 > .750 227 Young .850 > .709 (Even among this group of post-prime players, the decline was sharp for all 3. What about 2017 compared to 2015: Player-2015>2017 OPS Pre-prime players(20-26): Betts .820 > .803 Bogey .776 > .746 Swihart .712> .629 in 7 PAs Prime players (27-29): JBJ .832 > .726 Holt .727 >.548 Leon .439> .644 Just Post-prime (30-32): Pedey .797 >.760 HRam .717 We still see 6 of the 8 top PAs players from 2015 have lower PAs in 2017, and 6 of the 8 were pre or mid prime. It might not be a massive decline, but it was significant and more than anything, widespread.

We've all seen it. The best pitch to hit in the whole AB happens with the batter bat on his shoulder (hyperbole). This is no fluke. The opposing pitchers knew they could start the plate appearance off with an 0-1 count by just throwing right down the middle. Id there any way to find out if the Sox led the league in having the most middle-middle first pitches in MLB (taken or swung at)? My guess is we have been. Now, one could argue that it didn't make much of a difference, since our OPS last year was .736 and only .730 after an 0-1 count, but I still think we need to stop giving away easier pitches to hit. We have to stop giving away our strategies and tendencies. OPS after 0-1 count: .714 Bogey (.746 overall) .730 Betts (.803 overall) .727 Pedey (.760 overall)

Tony Watson agrees to multiyear deal with SF. Dollar amount unknown at this time.

There are some extenuating circumstances with Brentz's years in the minors, such as shooting himself and not being able to see very well until 2 years ago. He may be the player that breaks the mold. I definitely think he deserves a chance to make the 25 man roster, even if he struggles in ST'ing, but if we sign JD, there's just no reason to keep him on the roster, unless on the DL- phantom or otherwise. If he does very well in ST'ing, he might be traded. If we trade JBJ, he stays. If we trade HRam, we could keep him around.

Assuming Pedey returns in early June and there are no other major injuries (unlikely, I know), do you think this might be the PAs totals for 2018 are divided up? No JD 720 Betts (RF) 680 Beni (LF with some CF & RF when MB & JBJ rest) 650 Bogey (SS) 650 Devers (3B/DH) 600 JBJ (CF) 575 Moreland (1B) 550 Nunez (2B, DH, 3B, LF, SS) 475 Ramirez (DH/1B) 450 Vaz © 400 Pedey (2B) 150 Leon © 150 Swihart (C, LF, 1B) 150 Holt (IF/OF) 100 Marrero or Lin (IF) 50 Brentz (OF) With JD 720 Betts 680 Beni 650 JDM 650 Bogey 650 Devers 550 Moreland 550 JBJ 500 Nunez 450 HRam 450 Vaz 400 Pedey 150 Leon 0 Swihart, Marrero/Lin, Brentz

I never said the team was falling apart. I'm not sure that not falling apart should be the litmus test of leadership or lack of leadership. Again, the whole "leadership" argument is difficult to debate. We could spend weeks on just defining or identifying what it is or looks like. Then, we could spend months on how much difference it makes or if it is as important as talent.

Wow, 3 in the bottom 23, and all hit mostly in the top of the order.

Because, in my opinion, he's not, and if the turmoil was as bad as some are now saying it was, he's either a poor leader, or we have players incapable of being led to the good.

Zero chance we get nobody else.

I set the search at 1967 on and 28+ years old rookies and found this.... HR 21 Garret Jones in only 358 PAs 2009 20 Ryan Schimpf in only 330 PAs in 2016 20 Orestes Destrade in 637 in 1993 At 27... 37 Abreu in 2014 26 Willingham in 2006 23 Justin Bour in 2015 21 Brian Daubauch in 1999 (only 420 PAs) It's rarer than I thought.