moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I see your point, but if our other players improve, we'll know. (Although some will say JD's presence in the line-up made them do better.)
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What's unknown is how the last 3 years' $60M is split year to year. If it's $25M year 3 and just $35M/2 remaining, there's a higher chance for an opt-out.
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To the Sox? Doubtful. We'll be up against the major penalty line after Nunez & JD sign. I'm assuming JD's AVV will be $22M.
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$50M/2 before the first opt-out. I'm assuming $60M/3 for the remaining 3 years with another opt-out at some point over the last 3 years.
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Jon Morosi of MLB Network puts the guarantee at $110MM... [5 years?] Martinez will earn $50MM in the first two years of the deal, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The contract includes two opt-out chances, he adds. If he opts out after $50M/2, it wouldn't be such a bad deal at all. Even, if he did great, we'd have gotten out money's worth. If he does poorly or under performed, he won't opt out but $60M/3 remaining is not terribly horrible either.
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It was probably a lock all along. All the rest was just rigmarole.
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"sucked" was hyperbole, but our offense finsihed pretty badly last year after leading the league in runs scored by a wide margin the previous year.
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MLBTR reports... ... J.D. Martinez, though, remains available as the top bat on the market despite a lack of obvious suitors for his services outside of the Red Sox and D-backs. Here’s the latest chatter on the slugger… Drellich tweets that he, too, hears a deal between the Sox and Martinez is near, adding that Dombrowski would not comment on the matter.. Piecoro tweets that the D-backs are also under the impression that Martinez is going to the Red Sox, and they’ll need to find a replacement for him. The Red Sox and Martinez are now “moving close to a deal,” tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. There’s nothing finalized yet, he adds, noting that details on the pact remain unclear at this time.
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The Sox must have felt the knee was "good enough." The real danger is probably a re-injury.
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How about... Beni, ERod, Hembree & Brentz for Archer, Colome and Dickerson? (Again, I'm not for this trade, but if we sign JD, it makes some sense.)
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1) His salary is "high" (or too high) for the Rays. 2) DFA'ing does not always mean you want nothing in return.
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I said I would not do it.
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Exactly, and that 2015 season was petty decent, at least offensively.
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I always thought JF was a great pitching coach, and our pitchers did over perform last year, especially the pen. He and his staff sucked with everyday players. All but Vazquez declined or "under performed". Many did worse than 2015 numbers as well.
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It seems like a good deal for us, but... If we sign JD, then Dickerson has no place to play near FT. We lose one of our 6th starter options. I guess, if we signed JD and traded JBJ for a SP'er, then Dickerson could play LF and DH, helping to squeeze HRam from vesting and giving us a nice LH'd bat. It's hard to pass up a career .866 OPS vs RHPs guy. Dickerson career numbers vs RHPs per 650 PAs .284 32 83 (38 2B + 3B) (.331 OBP) Bonus: +8.7 UZR/150 over the last 2 seasons combined in LF & OF. I'd say yes, but if we sign JD, Dickerson might put us over the major penalty limit. If so, I'd have to say no.
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I wouldn't do it, but this might get TB to say yes... Beni, ERod, Brentz and Marrero for Archer & Dickerson
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Yes, I agree. 500-650 PAs from JD replacing... 276 from Young (.709) 150-200 from HRam (.750) 50-100 from Moreland (.769) 47 from RDavis & S Selsky 300-350 more PAs from Devers replacing.... 75-125 Marrero (.593) 118 from Rutledge (.558) 108 from Pablo (.622) 250-350 more PAs from Nunez replacing... 50-100 Marrero (.593) 50-100 B Holt (.548) 66 Lin (.709) 60 Marco (.628) 100-200 more PAs from Vazquez replacing... 100-200 from Leon (.644)
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That would help solve our roster crunch issues a little, but yes, someone else may be able to top that offer. How about Hembree, Johnson and Brentz? Maybe try to expand a trade to include Archer.
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Marrero's lack of options makes him a prime candidate for being DFA'd or phantom DL'd. If we sign JD, it might be Brentz.
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Well, if Betts falls somewhere between 2015 and 2017, or better yet, 2015 and 2016, he'll improve. Same with Bogey and JBJ. I agree, projecting JBJ is a tough one, him being so streaky and all. Yes, projecting Beni is hard at such an early age. He may still have adjusting and counter adjusting to do, before reaching his stride. In totality, I expect these guys to improve on their 2017 numbers, but I'll also not be at all surprised if they improve on their 2016 aggregate numbers as well.
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...and it's easy to look at these guys one-by-one and find legitimate reasons for a decline. Injuries and whatever. Betts did better at age 22 and 23 than 24. Bogey did better at 22 and 23 than 24. JBJ did better at 25 and 26 than 27. Holt did better at 27 and 28 than 29 (not uncommon). Beni did better at age 21 than 22. By themselves, it's no big deal. In totality, it's a rare happening. It was very unexpected that all these guys declined at once, and although many did not decline much from their 2015 numbers, they all did worse. Could it be that all these guys had an outlier season or two early in their career, and really are not as good as we came to believe? Of course, it's possible, but JBJ is 27 now (peak prime), Betts is 25 (still on the upswing of age curve charts) and so is Bogey. Beni will be 23 and could be expected to improve.
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These are all the Sox players with 100+ PAs each season and were under age 29 each year... 2015-2016-2017 Betts .820-.897-.803 J.B.J. .832-.835-.726 Bogey .776-.802-.746 Holt .727-.705-.548 Beni n/a- .835-.776 Not one had a better 2017 season than 2016 or 2015.
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Certainly could be the case, but the Sox players who had not reached prime had two previous seasons better than 2017. That is not a common occurrence for all 3 pre-prime players to do worse than their previous two seasons....maybe one, maybe two, but not all three.
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I'm not saying we'll get anything for Holt, except salary relief and maybe a single A prospect. DFA is also an option, if nobody wants Holt via trade.
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I'm not sure where he's getting that number from. The big penalty level is $40M over the limit, counting player benefits payments. cots has us at $205.3M before Nunez and JDM. If we spend $7.7M on Nunez per year, we'll be at $213M before JD with the heavy penalty limit at $237M. That leaves $24M with no wiggle room for in season additions. We could trade or Holt ($2M) or maybe HRam (saving possibly $4-8M).
