moonslav59

The DH slot is in major flux, and even if we trade Duran, we'd have 3 OF'ers, so addin Suzuki would puch Anthony to DH. I'm looking at DH and seeing Mead or Story there, with Arias at SS. Then I see platoon possibilities with Romy or Jones vs LHPs and Gasper or Duran/Mead/Story v RHPs. I'd love to replace Duran with Suzuki, but replacing or bringing back Gray is #1. Adding pitching depth is #2. Adding a LHB is a distant #3-4-5.

MLBTR came out with their top FA ranking list for this winter. I'm not seeing much beyond #3-4... 1. LHP Skubal (all but a long term Dodger) 2. 3B Teruaki Sato (Japan) 3. LHP Trevor Rogers (Maybe?) 4. OF Randy Arozarena/ 5. OF S Suzuki (I doubt we add an OF'er, even if we trade Duran.) 6. RHP Freddy Peralta (Nope) 7. RHP Michael King (Nope) 8. C Ryan Jeffers (He could back up AR and DH, but I doubt we go this route.) 9. LHP Adrian Morejon (RP would be a nice add.) 10. 2B Brandon Lowe (I wanted him last winter, but we have Mead and maybe Story at 2B.) Gray has an option, and he's not listed in the top 10. Honorable mentions: Nick Martinez, Bichette, Chisholm, Gausman, Arraez, Bauers, Bednar, Mize, Griffin, Imanaga...

Good point on starter vs RP. It turned out to be a great trade (so far.)

Not the "playoffs" aspect, but IMO any 3 game series is largely random.

It's interesting that the Bennett get was by trading SP'er "depth" for "depth." We got Oviedo for Jh Garcia but also added Travieso (SP depth for the future) We go Gray for 3 pitchers (Fitts- a ML'er, Clarke- a promising prospect & Galle - a longshot.) We got a RP'er E Miller + Gutierrez for Mayer Before that, the big trade was Devers for Harrison, Hicks and others. These were the deals that wacked the pitching depth: Early for Mead Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita for Contreras Harrison, Drohan & DHam for Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler Eyanson, Witherspoon, Azocar & Narvaezfor AR (I'm not counting Uberstine for White, but some may call him depth.)

Waiting for another day for the bats to wake up. Will it happen?

Blame Brez for the 3rd leading run-scoring team in the AL going cold in one series? They had some key injuries and somewhat unexpected drop offs. Sure, Story went 5-13 and Bregman only 3 for 10. Yoshida+Eaton+Sogard went 8 for 18, and the rest sucked. .859 Anthony Did not play .838 Refsnyder went o for 5 .826 Romy went 1 for 9 .790 Nate Lowe went 1 for 7 .786 Abreu went 0 for 5 .774 Duran went 1 for 11 .726 Narvaez went o for 8 .708 Rafaela went o for 10 No doubt, trading Devers and doing nothing to fix it hurt our chances in 2025, but Brez made the effort since then and has seen very nice results, despite the Mead injury and AR meh debut.

Reminder on what Brez inherited after the 2023 season: Major contracts: $313/10 Devers (just beginning in '24) $100M/4 Story (remaining) $72M/4 Yoshida (remaining) $28M/1 Sale (with option) $25M/1 Jansen & Martin combined. $18M/3 Whitlock (with 2 option years) The Roster (yrs remaining) : Sale (1) Bello (4) Pivetta (1) Crawford (4) Houck (4) Jansen (1) Martin (1) Whitlock (3-5) Winckowski (3) Bernardino (3) Schreiber (3) Murphy (3) Robertson/Kelly/ Llovera/Joely McGuire (2) Wong (4) Casas (5) Dalbec (3) E Valdez (5) Reyes (3) Devers (10) Story (4) Verdugo (3) Refsnyder (3) Rafaela (5) Abreu (5) Yoshida (4) Fall 2023 farm: 1. Anthony, 2. Mayer, 3 Teel, 7 Perales, 12 Meidroth, 14 Drohan, 19 Blaze 5 Bleis, 6 Yorke, 9 Wikelman, 10 Cespedes, 11 Zanetello, 13 Castro, 14 Jo Garcia, 16 Hickey, 17 Paulino, 18 Romero, 20 Monegro, 21 DHam, 22 Anderson, 23 Dobbins, 24 Elmer Rod, 15 Luis Guerrero, 16 Bastardo, 27 Mata, 28 Hoppe, 29 Alcantar, 30 Arias

According to fangraphs we lost the most projected WAR to injuries (12.8 on AUG 18th with another 4 projected to be lost before Rafaela went down.) I'm not blaming injuries for anything. I'm using this to emphasize how well we've done, thanks in large part to Brez's focus on both quality and quantity of depth.

The playoffs are a crapshoot, but if we lose, Brez gets dinged hard for not fixing the O. It's a 3 game series. The Contreras and Durbin adds were better than any of us expected. (Monasterio, Seigler, Jones & White, too) I admire the attempt with Mead. The AR get was overboard but he still did something we bashed Bloom for not even trying to do. The starts lost by pitchers on the IL would be a top 15 rotation in MLB, right now, and yet here we are with our 3 SP'ers line up against any team and thinking we have a shot. We just recently got Anthony and Story back- two guys expected to be our #1 or #2 offensive weapon (Roman) and our #4 or #5 guy (Trevor.) We lost Mead in less than a game. I'm not holding Brez's feet to the fire over this or a season like we had- early exit or not.

I'm pretty sure he will be, and looking at what we traded to get him and the money spent on his 2026 contract, I'd say Brez must really like him. The 2027 did nothing to convince him otherwise. We aren't getting Skubal, and we've depleted our trading capacity getting Mead and AR, so other options don't seem to be there. Other FA options: Burnes, M King, Gausman, Imanaga, Woodruff and others don't move the needle for me. If he's not our #1 target, who is? Fred will cry for a bat, but what's the best bat? Springer (37 y/o)? Bichette? Arraez?

Yes, very true, and in some ways, I think our team looks better for the playoffs than the season, as our top 3 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers compare better with other playoff teams than out 4-5 SP'ers and 6-8 RP'ers.

It always seems to be, but I do think is time before this was manitudally "special" as well.

Holobetz might be all the value we end up getting for Priester. He started off well in April with POR, then had 3 of 5 bad starts in May, including a 9 ER start that destroyed his season ERA. June saw 2 of 4 starts being bad, then he had a nice July and was promoted to WOO. The 6 ER in 2.2 IP game in mid AUG hurt, but otherwise he did pretty well with WOO. He allowed 1 ER in his last 3 starts (15.2 IP) Only 9 hits, but 6 BBs was not that good, but the WHIP was under 1.00.. 19Ks was impressive. I have to say, I don't see significant impact ability in Holobetz, Paez, Bastardo and Ziehl, but maybe one does well enough to help in 2027.

No way am I equating the loss of Mead to Judge, but I do think he was meant to/going to be a major impact for this offense. Too bad he couldn't even last a full game. The return of Anthony became the best hope as AR stumbled out of the pots-trade gait. Story has provided a somewhat surprising boost, but maybe it should be so shocking, since he did lead the team in HRs, RBI and SB in 2025. Also, no 2025 Sox player had more PAs and a higher OPS than Story, other than.... Duran! Among players with 420+ PAs: .821 Bregman .774 Duran .741 Story .726 Narvaez .708 Rafaela The 300 PA to 420 PA crowd of 4 all did better: .905 Devers .859 Anthony .826 Romy .786 Abreu It's interesting to not 3 of these 9 players are now on other teams and Romy is fighting to regain form and is currently off the 26 man roster. We've all but given up on Duran returning to even 2025 form, let alone 2024 form. Anthony does not look like the 2025 guy, who lacked the power we expected as well. The savior has been Contreras, and for the second half Durbin. We've gotten great support from unsung guys like Gasper, Jones, Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio and even short stints from Rogers, Cheng & White. We need at least 2-3 guys from Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, AR, Durbin and Story to do well in NYC.

This will be Tolle's last start. (26th) He's at 143 IP and probably will not be maxed out tonight. The key now is to minimize injuries and set players up to be fresh but not out of their grooves (unless their groove is a bad one, of course.) Speaking of bad grooves, we could use some turn-arounds from.... Last 14 Days .145 IKF (not really a playoff option to play much) .286 Wong (time for one of his hot streaks) .472 Gasper/ .478 Jones (Can they regain their magic?) .550 AR (Still waiting for his impact) .563 Sogard (Hard to be down on this kid, but...) .612 Duran (Been consistently near .610, yet keeps playing) .626 Abreu- this one hurts We can use a Rafaela return, so we can bench Duran and find a working DH platoon set up. Jones is at .773 the last 7 days, so maybe he is one half, but we'll need Gasper or someone else to hit RHPs.)

I never like seeing anyone miss the playoffs due to injury, but this greatly improves our chances at advancing. The Yanks still have some decent to very good offensive threats but not like Judge. Here are the top non Judge OPS players on the Yanks, in order by most PAs in 2026: .889 Rice (39 HRs and 95 RBI) .779 Bellinger (16 Hrs- 71 RBI) .715 Chisholm (on IL) Thumb- about to be activated .703 Grisham (on IL) Hammy is improving/ near ready .666 Cabalerro .613 A Wells (13 Hrs/31 RBI) .772 Goldschmidt (18 HRs/50 RBO) .618 McMahon .759 Jones .682 Rosario (.769 Luis Garcia Jr is #14 in PAs but playing more, now. .676 Lombard, too)

I like the move. No more Cora still seems hard to fathom, but this is good.

I do think the idea is to build a team that keeps improving on runs scored and runs allowed. If you can't do both, you try to improve one by more than the other declines or stays about even. That is essentially run differential. Teams with better run differentials usually win more, and it is probably the best indicator of wins vs losses out there. I keep using the Durbin/Suarez vs Bregman/Harrison as a model of how a GM can pivot to attempt to affect the run differential in a near equal but vastly different way. We may need to heavily rely on 2027 health to see it all come to fruition, especially with Crochet, Mead, Anthony and maybe one or two from Crawford, Oviedo, Story or Houck, but as I have pointed out, I like our depth and extended depth a lot. (SP'er and pen depth might be lacking.)

I agree. I was fine with trading Harrison, Drohan, Fitts, Priester & Dobbins. Some had low expectations from me and many others. Trading Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, Aita and a few others seemed a little risky as maybe one ends up shining brightly, but we needed Gray, Contreras, Durbin and others. The Bennett swap worked fine: the Oviedo one not so much. Trading away Early for Mead was fine with me, too, but no doubt it took a big dent out of our rotation depth. Trading Eyanson & Witherspoon was a bigger hit to the future depth than Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, Aita and others combined. We've gone 11-12 deep for a couple seasons, now, and despite having nice depth, we need to add Dustin May, last summer and could have used an addition this summer to replace Sandoval's bad performances. We've also used way too many pen games than we should have. We can't go 11-12 deep next year without relying on some shaky AAA starters. I doubt any become the next Bennett. Assuming we lose Gray and Crochet returns healthy, we will need Houck, Crawford and Oviedo to come trough. Many feel Houck should go to the pen, and I agree, but we may not have that luxury, unless we bring Gray back or replace him with a similar horse. The 2027 rotation slots look like this, as of now.... 1. Crochet 2. Tolle 3. Suarez 4. Bennett (5? Bello) 5/6/7/8. Houck/Crawford/Oviedo 8/9 Paez 9/10 Wehunt 10/11 Holobetz 11/12 Ziehl 12/13 Mullins Bello might be the "savior" of the group and allow the Houck/Crawford/Oviedo trifecta to remain as solid depth or be used from the pen, but it never works out that way. Someone(s) will get hurt. We will likely need all 3 and then some. Brining Gray back would satisfy me, but another trade like for Oviedo would be an idea worth pursuing- hopefully wit a better outcome. I'm also thinking Oviedo could be a big boost in 2027.

I think the Early for Mead trade was a major step and sign that he wants to improve the offense. It could have been a spectacular move. The AR move gave up a lot of pitching futures stock. (Azocar was no slouch, either.) I like the Jones and White additions, too. These were all in-season moves. The Contreras, Durbin, Monasterio, Seigler and IKF moves over the winter were not all geared towards offense, and maybe Brez put too much faith in Anthony being healthy and productive. Maybe e put too much faith in Narvaez, too. I think he planned well for possible injuries or stumbles by Story & Mayer with the IKF, Monasterio, Cheng, Rodgers & Seigler adds. Maybe I'm too high on Mead. It wouldn't be the first time, but I really see him as a major addition. Early had some high projected value. I hated losing him, but I think it was a good effort to rebalance the roster. The AR struggles are not really surprising, and I think what he brings to the defense and pitching staff may be undervalued by some, but he will need to hit better to make that trade look good. (Of course, if all the guys we gave up fizzle out, we may not see it as a bad trade, but that seems doubtful.) Our offense looks pretty good in 2027 and deeper than we can even sustain on teh 26 and 40 man rosters. We lose just IKF C: AR & Wong (Gasper & Jo Garcia Rule 5) 1B: Contreras & Romy w Casas (Mead, Gasper & Sogard as depth) Brannon is Rule 5 2B: Mead & Story w Sogard, Seigler & Monasterio (Rodgers/Romero) SS: Arias & Story w Monasterio, Sogard, Cheng (Godbout) 3B: Durbin & Eaton w Seigler, Cheng & Monasterio (Romero/Winnay) LF: Anthony & Duran (Campbell & Gonzales) CF: Rafaela & White (Ward) RF: Abreu & Campbell (Gonzales) DH: Yoshida & Jones w Mead/Duran/Anthony/Romy/Story/Gasper (Jo Garcia/Brannon as Rule 5s) Maybe I wear pink glasses. Maybe I'm a bonafide homer, but I like that offense as is. Even with expected injuries, the depth looks solid. I suppose we could add a DH (LHB) but Yoshida could be fine and is paid a lot.

Last 30 Days ERA by starters 0.83 Schlitter 1.83 Fried 2.37 Warren 2.42 Rodon 2.70 Suarez 2.74 Tolle 2.96 Gray 4.66 Bennett 5.34 Cole 6.12 Sandoval _______________________________ Last 30 Days ERA by RP'ers: (all with 7+ IP) 0.00 Weissert 0.00 Whitlock 0.75 Blackburn 0.87 Gamboa 1.54 Olds 2.00 Schreiber 2.25 Chapman 3.75 Bello (some as SP) 4.00 Bednar 4.50 Fulmer & Moran 4.63 Yarbrough 5.25 Headrick 6.48 T Hill & E Miller 6.52 Elemer Rodrigues

We pretty much know the Sox 3 starters for the Yankee series. Many agree the order should be Gray-Tolle-Suarez, but who are the Yankee three and in what order will they be pitched? The game two starter will get more rest before his next start, assuming the team advances, so that may be one consideration when ordering the starters. Here are some Yankee numbers: 2nd Half 1.75 Schlitter (12 GS: Clearly the game #1 starter) 1.83 Fried (9GS: maybe game 2?) 2.27 Weathers (7GS: will not start one of the 3) 2.40 Rodon (6GS: Between him and Cole.) 3.36 Cole (12 GS: Rodon or Cole?) 4.00 Warren (12 GS: will not start one of the 3) Last 7 Starts (6 for Rodon, who missed July and half AUG) 1.02 Schlitter (2.42 FIP in 44 IP- has not let up more than 1 ER/gm in 8 GS) 1.49 Fried (2.77 FIP in 36 IP missed a couple starts in AUG) 2.40 Rodon (4.06 FIP in 30 IP) 2.62 Warren (3.43 FIP in 34 IP) 4.20 Cole (4.97 FIP in 41 IP) I think they go with Cole, in part because Rodon is a LHP, and we do better vs lefties. Game 1: Schlitter v Gray Game 2: Fried v Tolle Game 3: Cole v Suarez

Nobody sould be shocked.

It was a major setback losing Crochet, and he sucked in the few games he did pitch, so was part of why we started off so crappy. What made it worse was the slow return and awful production from Sandoval, nothing from Crawford and Oviedo and the starter yips from Bello. (Houck was expected to miss all or almost all of 2026.) We also lost Early to injury before trading him. The starter dept did an amazing job despite the Harrison, Drohan, Dobbins and Preister trades. Bennett was barely mentioned as depth. We traded Perales for him hardly expecting immediate usage. 19 GS 3.78. Early was considered depth but many knew he's get a chance in 2026. Nevertheless, he would not have been in the initial rotation, if everyone was healthy. 17 GS 3.44 ERA. Tolle was also not a top 5 starter to begin 2026, and he was actually slotted behind Early. 25 GS 3.02 ERA is an astounding feat. That's 3 starters not considered as 2026 opening rotation pitchers. 344.1 IP 3.37 ERA (129 ER) 297 Hits 92 BB 349 Ks Early is gone, and Mead provides some hope for an improved offense for 2027 and beyond, but Tolle and Bennett added to Suarez and Crochet could form a solid 4 combination for 5 years.