moonslav59

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included: In Luxury Tax Dollars 31.1 David Price 22.0 JD Martinez 20.1 Rick Porcello 18.7 Mookie Betts 13.8 Dustin Pedroia 13.5M Chris Sale 11.9 Xander Bogaerts 7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr. 6.5 Mitch Moreland 5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached) 4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez 4.5 Christian Vazquez 3.4 Brock Holt 2.3 Tyler Thornburg 2.3 Sandy Leon 1.5 Matt Barnes 1.4 Brandon Workman 1.4 Steven Wright 1.2 Heath Hembree 1.1 Carson Smith 1.1 Blake Swihart $172M Total (21 players) $2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players $2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster $14.5M Player Benefits $18.5M Sandoval $209M Total That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

What changes, if any, might we see for the ALCS? Is Moreland healthy enough? (add Travis or Lin?) Do we add a 12th pitcher? If yes, should it be a long man like Johnson or Velazquez or a lefty like Poyner to face some tough 'stros lefties? I think we might go with what we have now, but if we are not going to PH for our catchers, I'm not sure why Swihart is on the roster.

I thought it might be $25-30M, and we do traditionally sign arb guys to higher than expected numbers.

I get your point, but it was a below market salary when it was signed. You can disagree, but most feel it was. He's hurt, now. His value is close to zero, unless and until he proves otherwise. He's not going anywhere, except in your dreams.

That's very likely true, but who leads the league in seasons leading the league in spending and not winning a ring? You guys may be 50 seasons ahead of second place.

Are the arbitrator of terminology?

Nobody is taking his salary. If he's all done, maybe he'll retire and help us like Dempster did, but I doubt it. We might try to trade other salaries, like Porcello or whoever we think we can't keep out of Boegy & JBJ.

The Yanks will have a ton of budget space to work with this year. They could even choose to go way over the $40M mark for a year or two. They lose a lot of dead weight and role player, but they are sitting pretty, money wise and young talent wise. The Ellsbury contract hurts them for 2 more years, and then they have the $5M buyout in '21. His contract goes longer than Pablo's. We lose HRam this year and Pablo after next year with $5M counting towards 2020. Here's a look at arb projections by MLBTRs +$8.2M Betts ($18.7M) +$4.8M Bogey ($11.9M) +$1.8M JBJ ($7.9M) +$2.4M ERod ($4.8M) +$1.2M Holt (3.4) +$0.2M Thornburg 2.3 +$0.3M Leon 2.3 +$0.9M Barnes 1.5 +$0.8M Workman 1.4 +$0.3M Wright 1.4 +$0.6M Hembree 1.2 +$0.2M Smith 1.1 +$0.5M Swihart 1.1 This is about $20M in arb raises. The Sox often settle with their players before arb. The Yanks have these projections: Didi Gregorius – $12.4MM Sonny Gray – $9.1MM Dellin Betances – $6.4MM Aaron Hicks – $6.2MM Luis Severino – $5.1MM Austin Romine – $2.0MM Tommy Kahnle – $1.5MM Greg Bird – $1.5MM Ronald Torreyes – $900K

I never said you, specifically, but jacko was just ranting about Gray and Montgomery and ... As for "buying championships", we've never won a ring and been the top spender the same year, let alone the top spender by tens of millions, when a million was worth $500K now. Yes, we've been a top 3-5 spender in winning years, and certainly big ticket signings were essential to us winning, but never to the extent GS did, until this year, when we are blowing everyone away with our spending. In 2013, the Yanks outspent us by $78M. (We were 4th in spending.) In 2007, the Yanks outspent us by $46M, and we were second. In 2004, the Yanks outsepnt us by $57M, and we were second. From 2005-2006, you guys outspent us by $160M combined. Lets look at Yankee ring years: 2009 +$76M 2000 +$4M 1999 +$7M 1998 -$6M to BAL

I could see us signing a marginal closer type this winter and having Barnes fight it out. I also think Smith or Thornburg could surprise us next year.

Please. I hardly ever complain about Cora. I don't even go to the game threads much, because that's all it's about. Just because I express my opinion on what I'd do, doesn't mean I think what Cora does is wrong, and I continually qualify my statements to say I love Cora's choices and the ones I disagree with work out more than they don't. Many choices made in a game have no right or wrong answers. People love to judge by hindsight, and I do, at times, too. I'll say it again. Cora knows a hell of a lot more than I do, and I respect and love the choices he makes. I have absolutely no issues with any choices he's made this year. Some, I'd have chosen differently, but again, to me, that does not mean I think he made or makes the wrong choices. His choices work. I love this guy as our manager. I don't thik I've ever said that about any Sox manager...ever.

Normally, yes, you want your closer in the 9th. We had Chris sale in the game with 1 IP under his belt. Does anyone really think Kimbrel had a better chance at closing out the game than the best pitcher in MLB, Chris Freakin' Sale? I get the game 5 argument, but no way is Kimbrel better than Sale. This isn't hindsight, either. I said it on the game thread before the 9th started.

Homer and Troll are not the same.

I certainly didn't feel doomed from the start. That wasn't my point. You guys have always been super confident in your rotation this year. It's only in the post morem where I'm hearing the rotation was always the weakness. Just throwing it out there after the years upon years of hearing sox fans whine like little schoolgirls over payroll. I agree here, and personally, I've mentioned several times that Henry needs to be careful he doesn't become viewed as the next George Stienbrenner. I don't think he wants people to think he buys championships. That's why I have been saying I think we will face a cliff situation, because I do think Henry will force a tax reset at some point before 2021. If we win this year, he may reset next year. If we don't, I think he resets after 2020- win or lose. Now you guys know how it feels.......... It feels great!

We don't play golf in the winter. The ice and snow prevent it. We watch football and women. We don't hit tiny balls into tiny holes.

True. He did think they were better, and now he says they were always their weakness. I never felt the Yankee starters were better than the Sox. I caught flack for believing in Price, but I also chose Porcello as our series ace. I was confident with Eovaldi vs the Yanks- not so much vs the 'stros, but I think Price will make up that difference. I've always been the biggest Chris Freakin' Sale fan in the world. I was suggesting trades for him before he was even born. I also think ERod might end up better than Severino over the next 2-3 years.

Actually, I picked Porcello as the ace for the series, but your point is well-taken. ERod got hurt, and he never regained the magic he had to start the season. The team did go 19-4 in his starts this year. Wright was hurt most of the year. While Price and Porcello have been sketchy, too. I think both have shown they can be a true ace moire than Gray and Happ have over the past 3-5 years. Sale is way less "sketchy" than Sev. Our starters were damn good this year, despite the injuries both on paper and in reality. They are better than the Yankee starters. On offense, HRs get all the hype, but we led the majors in runs scored. Pens are important, but they have become over-rated due to WS winners having great ones recently. If there's anything to learn about formulas for success, it's that there are many different roads to winning. We are balanced. Top offense, top 5 pitching and top 5 defense. We can even steal bases and made less bone head plays this year. We have excellent coaching and defensive catchers. Our bottom of the order caught a lot of flack, but they are much better than many think they are, and other teams have the same of worse issues at the bottom.

Gray has dealt with injuries and ups and downs for several years. I actually liked the trade you guys made last year. I had hoped we got him. That being said, he's not an ace.

I was about 50-50. My heart literally stopped.

(I also admit Cora knows more than I do, and I love him as our manager and no problems with his choices.)

I feel pitching Sale in game 4 pretty much severely limited what he could give us in game 5. Bringing him in was a win-now strategy, and I felt that if that was the choice then do it all the way. No halvsies.

I didn't say I thought Sale would pitch the 9th. I only expressed what I wanted. We could have also had this: Porcello 6, Sale 2, Kimbrelk 1.

Yes, that's why I called it the play of his life.

The rotation did look pretty good, on paper, but a lot of the talent was sketchy, and you really only had one ace- a young one at that.

Agreed, teams like the Sox went out and stacked their rotations with lefties, so we could beat teams like the Yanks. You guys overcompensated with your adjustment. You need a lefty (or two) who gets on base 40% of the time. You don't need more power. You need an ace (or two). You need to replace (or re-sign) some of the vet role players you may lose to free agency. Your new budget should allow you to get that without trading anyone away.