moonslav59

Well, half the contract will be from ages 28-32. That's not really past prime. Ages 33-35 are many time very good to decent years, so that's 8 out of 10. Only 2 years, at ages 36-37 might be scary, but they could be very good, too.

My sentiments exactly.

Wow! Looking like an exciting off season, so far. I'm hoping to see the Sox name come up at some point.

Some notes from soxprospects.com... http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/12/minor-notes-40-man-roster-moves-and.html With the rise of data in baseball, it is interesting to note that Darwinzon Hernandez was identified as a top Statcast performer in the Arizona Fall League. He had one of the top spin rates on both his four-seam fastball and curveball, and the spin rates he showed on both of those pitches would be elite even at the major league level. The only other left-handed pitcher that has velocity and spin rates like that in the majors is Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez. The move to sign Juan Centeno was needed after Dan Butler retired. Butler spent nine of his 10 professional seasons in the Red Sox organization, spending parts of the 2014 and 2018 seasons in Boston. The 32-year-old is due to get a World Series ring and he will now join the Arizona Diamondbacks as a bullpen catcher for the 2019 season. Former SoxProspects.com writer Jon Meoli had a great interview with Butler back in 2011 that is worth another read as his playing career comes to an end.

I googled it and couldn't find it either. Maybe I'm confusing him with someone else on the 'Stros.

Vaz had a 92 OPS+ last year, which is about equal to Cervelli's 2016 and 2017 numbers. I'm not sure the projection for Cervelli, who is much older, is much better than Vaz, offensively.

You forgot "Hangnail JD Drew."

I seem to remember talk he might not ever play again this past Spring (I can't remember why), but he ended up playing all year until a 10 day DL for a shoulder injury in September. I could be wrong. I hear the Phillies want him.

Yes, on another pitcher- a position we actually have a need or two. BTW, he had a 91 and 90 OPS+ the previous 2 years, so at age 33, I'm not sure we'd be getting 123 next year.

I think so, too. They will lose Keuchel. They want Morton back, but his health is in question.

Wasn't he close to ready for a playoff series roster after he was take off one?

I'm thinking the latter. No way we take on a lot of money for a catcher.

I disagree, but even so, Ben's farm helped us win the ring (with DD's trades). Zero percent chance Ben never traded some top prospects had he stuck around. ZERO!

It doesn't make sense. The talk last year was when vaz was hurt. Even if Pitt pays half the contract, I'd say NO!

My view on our current positional depth chart: SP Sale Price Porcello ERod ______ Wright (DL?) Johnson Velazquez Shawaryn Shepherd Walden Josh Smith D Hernandez AA T Houck AA RP ______ Barnes Brasier Hembree Workman Thornburg Poyner R Scott C Brewer T Lakins J Taylor D Feltman AA C Vazquez Leon Swihart J Centeno O Hernandez A Rei AA 1B Moreland-Pearce Swihart/Holt Ockimey Chavis Travis 2B Pedroia (DL?) Holt Nunez Lin M Hernandez Renda 3B Devers Nunez Holt Chavis M Haernandez Dalbec AA SS Bogaerts Lin Holt/Nunez M Hernandez Chatham AA LF: Benintendi JD Martinez Holt/Nunez/Pearce/Moreland Travis CF Bradley (Betts/Beni) T Matheny RF Betts JD Martinez DH JD Martinez Pearce/Nunez/Pedroia

The only way I trade Mookie, is if we decide to reset after 2019, and we have no plans at extending him. I suppose we could reset after 2019, trade Betts and then re-sign him after 2020 (highly doubtful).

He's a gamble, but so is any signing. He can give affordable long term control- something almost any team wants. If he sucks, it won't be a big budget issue, except for the years.

Kikuchi seems like the best fit for what you need and want, budget-wise. If he was a righty, I'd be suggesting we sign him.

No me. I still "blame" Ben for this ring.

That pretty much sums it up. Choice 3 is the obvious choice, but when you have so many top players fighting for every open job, you don't get those 1 year signees beating down DD's door. I was surprised by Pearce jumping on a one year deal so quickly.

It's very difficult these days. It was much easier back when Theo was running the team. We maxed comp picks, raided the international market and drafted players who fell in the draft due to "signability" issues. We can't do anything like that anymore. Our draft picks will be lower than low, especially, if we keep going $40M over the limit. The international pool shrinks the more you win and spend. Signing slot money takes away from top prospects falling due to wanting more money. It's easy to just say, we need to be smart and "maximize personnel," but those hard decisions will have to include deciding not to extend Sale or Porcello or Bogey, and maybe even 2 of those 3. We still had a good farm when we won in 2004. We did again in 2007. Betts, Bogey and JBJ were still prospects in 2013. Those were the days. I doubt we ever see them again. I think it's pretty much either/or and the key is to try and minimize the rebuild time periods by trying to keep some semblance of balance. Right now, our farm-ML club talent levels are about as out of whack as can be. I'm not complaining. It was necessary, and it worked. I'm thrilled the window DD created wasn't just a 1-2 year thing. The window was (is) actually about 4-5 years long! Great job, DD!

I think this is wishful thinking. 2022 is a long way away. The economy might crash by then. Hell, we could all be dead from global warming that far away! (LOL). I doubt the limit goes to $250M that quickly. A while ago, I thought Henry (and DD) might decide to reset teh year after we win a ring, but with the team we had last year, it would be a crime to not try one or two more years. I do think we reset after 2020. We'll still spend just under the limit and may not be too bad, but we won't compete that year. We reset the tax and spend big the next year and budda-bing, we're back in the race. The biggest problem with my theory is that after 2020 is when Betts becomes a FA. That works great for a reset, as losing his last arb year contract will almost get us under by itself, but he's the one guy out of everyone, I want to keep most. So, in order to keep him, we'd have to plan out current contracts to end after 2020 (like Eovaldi, a closer, or whatever). It might mean not signing Sale or Porcello or Bogey the year before, so we can later afford Betts. That kind of goes against the idea of keeping the window open for 2020 as it weakens our chances that year. It's a tough call. Looking at the books and going on the assumption we want to keep Betts at all costs, it might make more sense to reset after 2019 or 2021, and not 2020. Hard to know.

Of course! The only argument that might ever have been able to be made, is if he traded all these farm pieces and we never won a ring. That argument is out the window. DD deserves all the praise in the world. The farm trade off was well worth it. There's no arguments left. Game over. Scoreboard.

How many of those 8+ year deals were given to 28 year olds?

Wow! I thought they were cost-cutting.