moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes! I've made this point as well. It goes beyond Pom... IP ER Lost from 2018: 74 50 Pom 66 32 Kelly 17 14 Cuevas 8 4 Haley 7 6 Scott 6 9 Beeks 178 IP- 115 ER 5.81 ERA Non Kimbrel 2.74 Kimbrel (62 IP and 19 ER) All combined: 240 IP 134 ER 5.05 ERA
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Even Kimmi fell for the decent catcher OPS Swihart had in 2015. How quickly Swihart was removed in 2016 was a strong sign of how Sox top brass has viewed Swihart;'s catching skills.
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I assumed everything else was equal when I made the .300 vs .295 hitter but failed to say it. If you look at Sale's sample size, the 1200+ PAs is like two full seasons for a hitter. He's about 3/4 of a run better with Leon than all the other catchers combined. Of course, there could be other factors that helped create that gap beyond anything Leon did differently, but when you don't see any other starting pitchers with much worse numbers with Leon, I think one can accurately surmise that Leon makes a big difference with some pitchers and maybe not much with others, but is rarely negative with any large sample size pitcher. Yes, the Vazquez/Swihart sample size is not that large, but everyone else combined is! Maybe it's not 0.75 just because of Leon, but even if he was responsible for 0.25 to 0.50, that is far and away enough to offset his .450 OPS on offense. The gap with Price, to me, seems even more striking when you figure his years with Boston have been spotty, and he was not in prime years, yet he still blows away the rest of the catchers combined than when he's with leon.
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It baffles me how he can hit very well for pretty long stretches and then just turn ice cold for even longer stretches. He was over .800 for about 900 PAs at one point in his career, but I'm losing hope on him ever becoming consistent.
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Pedroia out with renewed left knee pain
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
1) maybe he wants to coach or be a consultant with the Sox. 2) He wouldn't lose any money. 3) He'd still make what he was going to make as a coach or consultant, anyways. For example, he's due $25M after this year. Maybe he would have signed as a coach for $10-15M over 25 years. We get him to retire as a player- like Dempster. He then signs a $35-40M contract for 25 years as a coach/consultant. He makes $10-15M more, and we get off the luxury tax hook for $13.75M over each of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. I'm not sure, if this would be allowable, so that's why I asked. (Maybe the Sox don't want him in the organization after he retires. Who knows?) -
Well, CERA, as you mentioned, does show a very significant differential between Leon and Vaz/Swihart with Sale & Price. The sample sizes are pretty large. Career Sale: 2.50 with Leon (1273 PAs) 4.50 with Vaz (279 PAs) 3.23 everyone else but Leon over his whole career Price: 2.83 with Leon (769 PAs) 4.32 with Vaz/Swihart (1234 PAs) 3.31 with everyone else over his whole career Do we "know" these numbers are all because of Leon? No, of course not, but do we know a career .300 hitter is a better hitter than a .295 one, since so many factors go into how a hit becomes a hit and is ruled a hit or an error?
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Just because it is not quantifiable does not mean it does not exist or cant be significantly impactful. CERA, when used correctly, can quantify it to some extent, but it is far from perfect for many reasons. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence when you listen closely to the level of praise each catcher gets from various pitchers. It's about comfort levels, pitch sequencing/calling and the ability to adjust a game plan on the fly based on experience and a vast knowledge of the batters.
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Pedroia out with renewed left knee pain
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, but maybe he can restructure his deal into a longer less impactful one. I mentioned a while back about Pedey maybe signing a lifetime services deal that might spread his owed money, plus a little more over 25 years. Would the league allow him to retire, forgo his player salary and then sign a mega coaching/services contract like that? -
I agree, but eventually he's going to need some serious work at 1B.
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With Pedey, Nunez and Holt able to play 2B, I can see why we didn't go after a 2Bman, but this past winter I and others discussed trying to sign a 2Bman. I mentioned LeMahieu a couple times, but I can see how throwing more money at 2B was not a top priority at that time.
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I heard Holt need more time. I's put Nunez on IL and bring up Lin. I'm so down on Nunez right now, I'd even bring up Chavis to botch 2B over starting Nunez at 2B one more time until he gets his act together.
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Well said.
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WAR does not count some things, especially the intangibles related to the pitcher-catcher relationship. They sure do suck on offense.
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PawSox go down 7-0 in the first (all unearned), yet they still win! Ockimey has an OPS of .973- Centeno .915. Chavis is now at .954. Portland goes down 7-0 after 3 innings and wins! Chatham goes 3 for 6 Curcio goes 4 for 5 with a homer. Duran is currently 1 for 3 with his 5th SB. It's the 8th inning.
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He may play 800 games there and never be "ready." That being said, what do we have to lose? Nobody can be worse than Nunez on defense at 2B.
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Not when looking at pitch framing, blocking bad pitches and CERA related areas.
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With Holt on the IL, we are stuck with Nunez.
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Workman picks the worst time to implode. Brasier with one bad pitch. Nunez should be on the IL. We are finding ways to lose. Eovaldi looked very good. We out hit the Yanks 8-5. Still April.
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..and I'll add, it wasn't like we won despite Vaz & Leon. They were net pluses.
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The chance they gave him in LF is evidence they were willing to give him an extra chance to prove himself. He was never going to be our catcher in any meaningful way. The injury in LF sucked, but let's not kid ourselves. The guy could have started 800 games at catcher and never proved he belonged.
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I think they bent over backwards to give him all the chances possible to make the bigs, including tries at other positions. He failed and failed and then failed again. Yes, he was "over-rated" in many ways, but the fact that he got so many chances shows me the organization "believed in him" too much--not like you claimed. Swihart threw himself under a bus, or he just never had what it takes all along.
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jung: I, respectfully, disagree.I actually think the Sox bent over backwards to give Swihart every and any chance he could possibly have to stick in the majors and he never proved he belonged.
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Yes, and on second thought, I think my offer is too high, even if he turns things around.
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If he would accept the pitching coach job, I'd be all in!
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It's hard to know how GMs would value Porcello. I think $50-60M/4 sounds about right, but look at Keuchel. I'd probably offer him $13M x 4 with some incentives.
