moonslav59

Could the secret team be the Yanks?

A fair assessment, but what makes you think the new CBA will make it easier for big spending teams?

Well, we are worse than the Yanks but should be paid more. Is that accurate?

He's a slave to WAR and Steamer. He's pretty consistent in that sense, but he often cherry picks sample size of past WAR vs projected WAR based on what supports his argument better (not like we all don't do that from time to time).

Too funny, our players suck when compared to the Yankees, but they will get top FA dollars because they are so great!

What? Like there will be no money left over after signing Bogey and letting Sale, JD & Porcello go?

I loved the Napoli signing even before they restructured it after finding the health concern. I liked Vic but hated 3 years, and I didn't think we'd win in 2013, so I thought his best years would be before we got seriously competitive. I disliked the Drew and Demster signings, at the time, but not nearly as much as other signings in other years (CCrawford, Pablo, Masterson).

Soon, we will be done with all our albatross contracts, except for maybe Pedey's, which is not massive anyways. We have a lot of key player reaching free agency within a short 2 year window. While that is very problematic, it's not as bad as having multiple long term deals on the books that may start turning bad as those players age. I firmly believe we will reset- probably after this season, and we will suffer for a year or two, at least in the sense that we will not be a top 10 favorite for at least a year. Yes, that's my opinion. How long it takes to get back to serious contention depends on a few things: 1) The farm will need to produce some talent, and I'm talking Beni/Devers talent not the Lins and Poyners of the world. 2) Our budget will likely have to rise near the $40M line again to get to be a top contender quickly. 3) DD cannot make any major mistakes in signings or trades and must limit small mistakes. 4) DD will have to keep finding guys like Eovaldi, Peatce & Nunez for cheap in mid season dealings. 5) Cora, who I already think is the best Sox manager I have ever seen, will have to show how he can work with a team not loaded with studs. 6) Our young players will have to improve as the near and reach prime (Devers, Beni, ERod and others). I'm not complaining. DD built us a 4-5 year window with a top competitive team. That's not easy to do, and I'll take a down year or two as a consequence. 4 rings in 15 seasons, baby! That's fantastic! Thanks Henry. Thanks Theo. Thanks Ben. Thanks DD. Thanks to everyone who has made this the greatest stretch in Red Sox history!

It's hard as hell to repeat. We've won 4 times in the last 15 years. That's more than anyone else, but we've never even won 2 out of 3 years. We have lots of question marks, as do all teams, but we also have lots of areas we can see improvement. Maybe we'll see enough improvement is those areas that we can offset the declines we are bound to see in other areas. Sale's health and durability can make a big difference between a Cy Young type season or less to much less. David Price: has he reinvented himself after a somewhat rough start with the Sox? He's still young enough to have a great season, but certainly questions are present. Porcello is the rock of the staff, but even he has shown a range from Cy Young ability to much less. ERod clearly has nasty stuff. He was off to a fantastic start last year, but the injury bug, once again, derailed his progress. Eovaldi is maybe the biggest question mark of the rotation. 2 TJ surgeries. A record of very few long seasons. Nasty stuff. High upside. Wright had a serious injury, but he was close to being ready for the playoffs, so there may be high hopes he's ready for 2019. Johnson & Velazquez offer some hope for decent starter depth or mid to long relief from the pen, but it's hard to get overly optimistic here. The pen is clearly the our weakest area, but it may end up being closer to average than bottom tier, assuming no significant additions. Barnes seemed to solidify his position as a reliable RP'er. Brasier could turn out to be a flash, but he throws smoke and looked like he could handle pressure well. Hembree has always seemed like he's ready to break out, but he never does. I'm not that hopeful with him, but's he's been decent more than not. Workman has had several good to decent years and could possibly fill a key set-up role. Thornburg and Smith have both had a great season followed by an injury and slow recovery. Poyner, Walden, Putman, Lakins, Feltman and some AAA starters could get a pen look or two. Vazquez and Leon are very good on defense and seem to be great at handling our staff and getting the very best from them. I'm happy with them, but their offense really stunk last year. From 2014 to 2017, both had an OPS of .666. Last year, Leon was 155 points below that number and Vaz was 126 below it. There is room for some significant gain on offense at the catching position. It might seem like .666 is still bad, but gaining over 100 points can't be bad. Swihart will likely be traded, but it's nice to have a 3rd catcher who can play elsewhere and provide more opportunities to PH for our weaker hitting catcher. 1B offer a very good chance to improve. Pearce has an .863 OPS vs LHPs since 2014 (9th best out of 30 1Bmen with 400+ PAs). Moreland has a .782 OPS vs RHPs since 2015. That's not great, but it's not bad (21st best out of 30 with 1000+ PAs), and his defense is very good. Put them together, and they could really improve on the 2018 OPS of .794. Of course, they may not, but if they can stick to a true platoon, I think .820+ is not out of the question. 2B is probably the biggest question mark on the team other than the pen. Pedey's injury is such that even if he looks great, it could all end on one slight twist of the knee or slip on a base. Speaking of knees, if Nunez could look more like 2017 than 2018, we'd be fine. Holt looks like maybe he finally solved the durability issues, and he could end up winning the job and doing well enough that we won't need to find another Kinsler this year. Bogey has few questions other than his lack of growth on defense. However, his offense more than makes up for any lack of defense, and he seems to be coming into his own as an all around offensive threat. 3B has questions, but perhaps Devers offers our best chance to see a massive gain from 2018. His defense seemed to be better as the season progressed. The questions about Nunez at 2B are the same as at 3rd, but range is not as important at 3rd. I like our chances of significant gains at 3B in 2019. Beni may also take a big step forward. He was kind of up and down over 2018 and struggled vs LHPs for long stretches, but he ended up with very nice numbers for his age. I'm not worried here, and his defensive and base running gaffs have been reduced. JBJ is always a question mark, but he had his longest stretch of consistency of his whole career in 2018. His poor first 6 weeks hurt his overall numbers, so there is hopes we can see a gain in CF. His defense is A+. Betts had the best year I've ever seen from a Sox RF'er and maybe of all positions. He could decline some, for sure, but I'm not really expecting it. If he does a little worse, but doesn't go on the DL, we might still get a boost overall. JD was a godsend. He was everything we needed him to be and had a great influence on other hitters. I'm not worried here. Sure, lots of questions but lots of hopes, too. Maybe we add a quality RP'er to lessen the fears there, but waiting until the season to see how things shake out should be okay. How many days to the first ST'ing game?

I'm not sure it's that simple. His sample size under the spotlight was rather small, but you may be right. My projection was based more on my feeling that CC has been running on fumes for too long. Don't get me wrong, he's done very well as he's aged, but there comes a time when over the hill means it's time for serious decline.

Houston may end up playing or beating one of us in the ALDs.

I'm more worried about losing Betts by any further signings.

No way am I going to say we have gotten better over the offseason by more than the Yanks, or even that we are currently better off than 2018. There's a trend of you reading more into what I am saying... Someone said the Yanks got better by adding Ottavino. I said they did not. He just replaced Robertson. You jumped on me as if I was implying the whole team has gotten worse. I recognized the Yanks got better by adding Paxton and having Happ and Britton for a full season, but that the "differential" of the gain is lessened by the fact that we have Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season. I never said it evened it all up, yet you keep acting like I'm saying that. I mentioned we we could get better by some players doing better or returning from injuries or partial year injuries. You jump all over that by creating a more than one good year criteria for anyone to have a shot at being helpful this season. Look, I realize you have guys coming back from injuries, too. You have several players who missed some time last year that may not this year. You have Didi out for a while and questions about his arm when he does get back. We all have ifs. You guys have done a good job filling your biggest need areas over this winter. As of yet, we have not. I still like our chances this season, and I know it will not be easy.

Looks good on paper. I will add that I thought Drury, Neil Walker and Torreyes were the "jack of all trades" Cashman has always yearned for.

I never said Eovaldi is better than Happ, but whenever we bring up the fact that we will be helped by having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season, you crap all over the notion. Both teams will be helped by having these players for a full season. I never said it would be equal or more of a gain for the Sox. Stop strawmaning.

My sentiments, exactly.

That counts but not Eovaldi & Pearce.

Watch Gray do better than CC.

MLBTR reports... Sale also indicated that his left shoulder – which was a problem at times late last season, when he dealt with a massive drop in velocity – is no longer an issue. & Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday he doesn’t expect that all three of the team’s catchers – Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart – will be on its Opening Day roster, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports (subscription required). Because all of those players are out of options, a trade is likely coming. Dombrowski noted that “there’s interest, but we still haven’t made a deal we feel comfortable making.” All three catchers had abysmal offensive seasons over 200-plus plate appearances in 2018, but if defense is Boston’s main concern, the odd man out may be Swihart. After all, the former high-end prospect has accrued little playing time as a backstop over the past few years.

$11.5M is a lot to the Pirates. My guess is he gets traded, hopefully not to us.

Paxton certainly is an upgrade over the 2018 Gray & Lynn. They have gotten better. One could argue Eovaldi is an upgrade over the 2018 Pomeranz. -maybe not as much as the Yankee improvement but it does lessen the differential.

I'm thinking it might not be such a great idea to trade away a catcher who gets so much better from Sale and Price. ERA with these catchers: Sale w Leon 2.42 (2.04 in 2018) w Vaz 3.40 (2.27 in 2018) Price w Leon 2.83 (2.37 in '18) w Vaz 4.32 (4.68 in '18) w Swi 5.73 One can choose to value these numbers or not, but I'm one to think we shouldn't mess with a good thing. An ERA improvement of this magnitude far outweighs Leon's poor offense. Plus, it's not like Swihart is a guarantee to hit way better than Leon.

Look what an 0.7 RP'er (Kelly) just got signed for. My guess is many teams prefer a decent to good starter to a good to very good RP'er. Swihart is just a prayer throw-in that I think some teams would like, especially looking at the state of the catcher position recently. Plus 0.2 is not bad these days, and Swihart might still have some upside. We could also add Chavis or Dalbec.

They both went down very slightly.

My point was that the numbers of most players in 2013 vs their career norms was not as far off as the 2012 numbers were below norms. We were probably not projected to do very well based on the lows of 2012 and much people use just the most recent short sample sizes to project future production.