moonslav59

Look what an 0.7 RP'er (Kelly) just got signed for. My guess is many teams prefer a decent to good starter to a good to very good RP'er. Swihart is just a prayer throw-in that I think some teams would like, especially looking at the state of the catcher position recently. Plus 0.2 is not bad these days, and Swihart might still have some upside. We could also add Chavis or Dalbec.

They both went down very slightly.

My point was that the numbers of most players in 2013 vs their career norms was not as far off as the 2012 numbers were below norms. We were probably not projected to do very well based on the lows of 2012 and much people use just the most recent short sample sizes to project future production.

I get that. If you see the post I responded to, the point was that the Yanks are getting better while we stand still, and the poster mentioned Ottavino was part of the Yanks getting better.

Maybe he's waiting out a couple free agents, in hopes the prices bottom out, before making a trade that eats into our depth.

We don't need them all. I think expecting improvement from Devers is a likelihood not a prayer. Hoping our 2 catchers hit their career norm is not a stretch. Hoping JBJ continues where he lest off last year, when he finally went 4 straight months with consistently good hitting, does it for 6 months might be viewed as a big what if, but when you count his playoff performance, one has to think his confidence is at an all time high right now. (Whatever that is worth.) 1B should be better barring an injury that messes with the platoon and forces one 1Bman to hit the opposite platoon, although Peatce has shown he can hit righties pretty wee for long stretches. The biggest "if" is 2B, but we have 3 guys to hope 1 or 2 do well- Pedey, Nunez & Holt. We also have Lin as a decent defensive back-up. Hoping we find 3-5 decent RP'er to fill in behind Barnes & Brasier is our biggest "if". Hembree Wright Workman Thornburg C Smith Johnson Velazquez Poyner Walden Skawaryn/Shepherd/ERamirez/JSmith Brewer Putman Lakins Feltman

Any GM looking to trade someone like Swihart would say the exact same thing. I'm okay with not trading Swihart, but I doubt we trade Vaz or Leon.

I think the clues point towards a budget limit. To me, that means we will get a RP'er via trade. Maybe we trade Chavis and Swihart, but I wouldn't be surprised if we trade Johnson as part of a package for a very good, cost effective RP'er. A Johnson -Swihart package would really clear up our small out-of-options issue. It would clear the way for Pedey/Lin and Velazquez/Poyner, who might be better than Johnson and Swihart to make the opening day 25 man roster.

2012 was more freaky than 2013.

in terms of WAR we rank last season: 1B 18th 2B 22th 3B 27th CF 15th C 30th Those are quite ugly. I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I do not think our catchers were the worst in MLB. WAR does not include a lot of intangibles such as CERA related skills. If Leon & Vaz just hit their career OPS, we'll see a near 100 point gain right there. That's not unreasonable to assume. Pearce will be here 6 months not two, so that should boost our 1B ranking along with maybe Moreland possibly & finally having an injury- free season. Pedey is a big if at 2B, but maybe Nunez's knee improves and his defense doesn't drag down the WAR number. JBJ might be consistent all year, and that would be a big boost. Devers missed time, and again, if Nunez is healthy, we may see a big gain here. I get it- lot's of ifs, but I like our chances at seeing gains at most of these positions- maybe enough to make up for a decline we may see from our pen.

Ottavino may not be an upgrade over Robertson.

The one year deal seemed to really fit into the reset plans. I'm guessing he has someone he likes better lined up.

It's gone down as much as Kimbrel's.

I thought Thornburg & Smith were roughs in the diamonds

When we got Vic, I remember a lot of us not liking the 3 years, but hoping we'd get 1, maybe 2, good years out of him. Napoli had a lot of good years, his 2013 was padded by a freakishly good defensive metric. Uehara is legit, but even he had some more great years. Salty, Drew and Nava helped, but really? I'm not buying it and never did. To me, the most freaky year was 2017 with all the down years at once.

Nice goalpost move, but you are still dead wrong. A few guys had very good seasons. Whoop-dee-freakin-doo, our 10th highest PA guy (Gomes) had his 3rd best career year and that's part of your equation? LMAO! Salty lost his job in the playoffs- that's another "career best". Drew & Nava did have career or near career years, but they were not big parts of the team. (Nava was benched the the playoffs, too.) The 2 starters on your list had 270 IP combined. 11 or more players had some of their worst or subpar seasons-- Lester, Dempster, Peavy, Tazawa, Aceves, Workman, Bailey, Hanrahan, Webster, Mortenson, Alex Wilson and others all had seasons nearer their worst than their best.

Totally wrong. Many players had better years the year before or after. Here's a list of the 2013 Sox players in order of PAs and IP: PA Player OPS (Career) 724 Pedey .787 (not even close to his career year- his 6 previous years were all better and he topped .787 twice afterwards) 636 Ellsbury .781 (not even close to his .928 OPS 2 years earlier) 600 D Ortiz .959 (not even close: 6 better before- 1 better after) 578 Napoli .842 (was better or equal 3 other seasons) 536 DNava .831 *** CAREER BEST*** 532 S Vic .801 (Had two better and one .002 lower.) 501 SDrew .777 (Had 3 better.) 470 Salty .804 ***CAREER BEST*** 374 Middy .696 (was .139 points hbigher in 2012) 366 Gomes .771 (was almost 100 better in '12 & had 3 other better ones. IP Pitcher ERA (Career) 213 Lester 3.75 (Has had 8 better seasons!!!) 189 Lackey 3.52 (Had 2 better before & 2 after) 171 Demps 4.57 (Not even close) 162 Douby 4.32 ***CAREER BEST*** 108 Buch 1.74 (Maybe second best, despite low IP) 65 Peavy 4.04 (Not even close.) IP Pitcher WHIP 74 Uehara 0.565 (***CAREER BEST***) 68 Tazawa 1.200 (Not even close.) 60 Breslow 1.160 (nope) 42 Workman 1.416 (Nope) 37 Aceves 1.730 (Maybe his worst) In what universe is 4 players "everyone?" Only Uehara had a major role.'' I'm sick of this myth being repeated so often.

Lord knows we paid big to fill a lot of key slots. I'm not going to complain, if we have a pen that's about average. It looks like we might out spend everyone again this year, so I don't get the spend more argument.

We'd all like a better pen, but we have as much or better chance of winning this year than anyone else. It's hard to criticize a GM or management team for that, despite still having one area of apparent weakness. Plus, the winter is not over. Let's reserve judgement until it is.

Although Jacko likes to poo-poo Brasier, he did have an 0.7 WAR in just a half season. One could argue that he might put up a 1.4 this year, thereby absorbing Kell's 0.7 WAR without adding anybody new. After all, most of Kelly's plus WAR was in the first half of 2018. (0.5 first half/ 0.2 second half.)

But, Barnes, Hembree and Brasier should look much better to you than they did last year. Plus, Brasier did not even pitch for us until July 9th. Surely, 3 more months from him should make up for some of the loss. You also arbitrarily chose 2 good seasons as being needed to have any realistic hope in a RP'er. That may or may not prove to be true, but we do have several pitchers besides Barnes who have 2 or more decent to good seasons: Hembree '16 & '17 (plus looked good in PS last year) Workman '13, '17, '18 Thornburg '13, '15, '16 (Yes, 2016 blew 13 & 15 away, but those 2 were decent.) Wright '14 and '16 were very good and '15 and '18 were decent.

So far, yes. He may be willing to wait until he sees how things shake out and make a mid season deal or two if needed. He's found some real gems this way recently.

Maybe he just doesn't like Allen. Maybe he has his eyes on a better pitcher (via trade).

We must have a spending limit.

You said we had a weak pen last year.