moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
LOL. I loved Nava, and he did have a couple very good years. I've been high on many young players who actually put up decent numbers for extended times. I was high on Devers from day one. He kept doing well at every level the promoted him to. Guys like Johnson and Gabbard come along all the time. Some make it: most don't. I guess reality seems cold sometimes, but there's no way I'm planning on Johnson for anything significant next year. To me, he looks like a better pitcher than Gabbard was over his whole history with Boston and their farm, but he's still kind of a long shot to being a top 5 starter in MLB. -
I'm not really sure why Clemson is ahead of ND. Who have they beaten that is any good? They squeaked by Texas A & M and Syracuse. We killed Syracuse and beat Michigan, N"Western, Stanford, VA Tech and Wake & Fla ST who aren't total patsies.
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He got to AAA in 2012. He was still there last year.
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My guess is they sign Machado or Harper and another pitcher like Corbin, Keuchel or Happ. They will also probably add a solid RP'er.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You need to read up on statistics and reread the chapter on sample sizes. I have watched just about every pitch of every Sox game for over 2 decades. I remember Gabbard well. I was very encouraged by those 7 starts in 2007. I had hopes he might be a diamond in the rough, but in no way was I convinced of anything based on 7 starts. To think his quick demise was based on poor infield defense behind him in Texas is really pushing it. Frankly, with all due respect, I think this position is border line absurd. The chances Gabbard would have gone on to become a good pitcher had he stayed in Boston will never been known for sure, but my guess is, he would have flopped with us, too (based on what actually happened after the trade). -
Yes, the Yanks will be very good. They will add another SP'er and replace some lost pen arms, but the rotation I see now, is not scary. Their line-up is and will be, especially if they add Harper or Machado and Didi returns to form. The Yanks worry me, but not their current rotation.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Gabbard did not "do a lot" of anything. He barely pitched enough to determine anything- one way or another. He showed some promise with us over a very limited sample size. He never pitched over 56 innings with Texas and his peripherals with Boston were never all that good, except for the 7 starts in 2007. His time in Texas was similar to his numbers in BOS in 2006. Take away those seven starts with Boston in 2007 and there's nothing there to love. WHIP 1.59 2006 1.12 2007 with BOS in 7 starts and 41 IP 1.72 2007-2008 TEX in 29 starts and 96 IP -
Normally, I agree, but when you look at the Yanks and Astros line-ups, having a righty looks essential. Yankees .800 vs LHPs .773 vs RHPs (In 2017, their splits were flipped .757 to .795) Astros: .803 vs LHPs .733 vs RHPs (In 2017, their splits were flipped as well .814 to .824) Granted, I'd rather get a great LH'd starter than a mediocre RH'd starter, but I wouldn't call Happ "great."
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Or, he just never was as good as we thought he was or might be. -
I can imagine he's doing really well, is promoted to AAA mid season, but we find 7+ RP'ers from my list that are getting the job done. And, that is assuming we sign nobody, which is highly unlikely.
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Things have changed. The Yanks are now stacked with RH'd hitters. The Sox have 4 LH'd SP'ers, if you count Brian Johnson with Sale, Price & ERod. Plus, Porcello does pretty well vs LHBs, too.
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Top RH's Free Agents (MLBTR Projected Contracts) Eovaldi $15M x 4 Morton $16M x 2 (Please, no!) A Sanchez $11M x 2 (A gamble) M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $11M x 2 L Lynn $8M x 2 B Norris $6M x 2 G Richards $5M x 2 E Santana $6M x 1
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We really need a RH'd starting pitcher.
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I think Travis and/or Marco Hernandez will be traded or DFA'd at some point between now and the July trading deadline. I think Chavis, Dalbec and even Ockimey have a better chance at helping the big club next year than Travis. With the Quiroz trade, we may give Marco a look in ST'ing to see if he shows any signs of hope, but I'vbe written him off, at this point. I think Feltman is not going to make a showing this year. He would have to be added to the 40 man roster, which could happen if he is doing very well, but with so many options already on the 40 man roster who will more likely be given a shot, if we need to dip into our farm depth. Even if we don't sign a pitcher (very unlikely), we still have all these arms currently ahead of Feltman: Barnes Brasier Hembree Workman Thornburg (SP'er from Wright, Johnson or Velazquez) Poyner Robby Scott M Walden C Brewer T Lakins J Taylor (SP'er from AAA: Shawaryn, Shepherd, Haley, J Smith or AA: D Hernandez & T Houck) then, maybe Feltman
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Just how much help can we expect from our farm in the next few years? Here's a position by position look at what we have already on the farm: 1B: 25 Travis 23 Chavis 23 Ockimey (if not claimed on rule 5) Dalbec (Maybe better to keep at 3B and move Devers to 1B) 18 Casas 3B: 23 Chavis 23 Dalbec 19 Howlett 19 Northcut 18 Casas 17 D Diaz SS: 24 Lin 23 Chatham 18 A Flores 2B: 24 Lin 22 B Netzer C: 21 K Cottam 16 E Lopez OF 22 Duran 19 Decker 18 G Jimenez P: 30 M Walden 27 J Haley 26 C Brewer 26 C Shepherd 25 Poyner 25 J Taylor 24 Shawaryn 24 Lakins 22 D Reyes 21 D Hernandez 22 Houck 21 Feltman 20 Scherff 20 Groome 19 Mata
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We have had our disagreements, but you are one of my favorite posters. (So is notin, and you guys are polar opposites!)
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Age. Decline in MPH on fastball. Decline in control. Isn't it possible 2017 was more of an outlier than 2016 and 2018? Afterall, 2 out of the last 3 years is a larger sample size than 1 out of 3. BB/9 5.1- 2016 1.8- 2017 4.5- 2018 He has a BABip of .216 this year. Imagine if it was at his career .260 mark! Even with that low average, his WHIP still rose from 0.68 to 0.99. Don't get me wrong, 0.99 is fantastic, and that's one reason I'd like to have him back, but the cost will be too high- both in terms of money and years. Also, GB% 28.2- 2018 40.3- career FIP- 75 - 2018 50- career Pitch Velocity Charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=6655&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
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Careful, you might win that one!
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I'm worried about Kimbrel's impending decline that may have already started. He will also get more years and more money, and I'm of the mind we will be resetting the luxury tax in a couple years, so anyone signed beyond 2 years, the amount of money is crucial to keeping our best players. Again, I realize I might be wrong about when and if we ever reset the tax, but that's my thinking.
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I'd love to have Kimbrel back, and I've made that point known, but he will cost to much and get too many years. It's true I'm not big on spending large for any closer, so it's nothing personal against Kimbrel. Would you rather have Kimbrel at $90M/5 or Eovaldi at $60M/4?
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The Rays are famous for signing guys who go on to have a one season, career-high year. Maybe, they think Chron had a fluke year and will find the next one somewhere else at $1-2M.
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I think we can afford Eovaldi at $15M and still have enough to sign Familia or Ottavino or perhaps Allen and a lesser known set-up man to stay below the $40M mark.
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I was talking to those who claimed the farm would be quickly rebuilt as far back as 2016. Those predictions have fallen far short. On your point, I'm not sure why it will be any easier to do it starting last month. We will have the lowest pick we've ever had, and it might be 10 picks lower, if we ended up over the $40M line this year. Our international pool will be very low as well. I haven't given up hope, but that's all it is right now-- HOPE!
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
lol! -
It would be a gamble, but making Eovaldi a closer might lessen the chances of injury that you have been very vocal about. I'd rather have Eovaldi as a closer than Kimbrel, and as you pointed out, he'd cost less. All in all, I'd prefer Eovaldi as a starter and Familia, Ottavino or Allen as our closer.
