moonslav59

Yes, and even .825 vs LHPs and some decent number vs righties, when he faces them is worth the $6M/1.

I heard somewhere we were just barely over the $40M mark this year. My guess is the official number will show we ended up just under the $40M over line. That might be evidence that the Boston bean counters are hard at work trying to keep us under that top line. The draft penalty is not severe, and if you go just barely over the tax on a small amount over is very small, so in that sense going over the $40M line in and of itself is not earth-shattering, but going over by a lot may take its toll. My guess is DD is not being forced to stay under the $40M line, but it is a high priority not to go way over it. My guess is, upper management has already chosen a season where they plan to reset. I think it will be the 2021 season, so any new contract that runs through 2021 will be very carefully scrutinized with that in mind, and the fact that any 2021 salaries on the books may prevent re-signing some of our best young stars. At some point, it will likely become a juggling act for DD. I'm not calling out anyone who thinks Henry will just keep sending and spending through 2021 and beyond, but re-setting the tax for just one year would save Henry a ton of money for many years afterwards. I'm thinking that is the plan, and my suggestions and projections are based on that foundational belief.

Assuming my numbers are close, and DD will try to stay under the $40M line, signing Pearce might amount to this: Pearce $6M per Eovaldi $16M per Familia $9M per vs No Pearce Eovaldi $16M per Ottavino $8M per Cody Allen $7M per (or Kelly)

Plus, next year we have Pearce for the full season- not just 2+ months/

Last winter, Buch was coming off worse numbers over 2 years. He pitched well in 16 starts last year- enough for some desperate GM to throw him a bone (ML deal).

He'll get a ML deal somewhere. Not here.

I figure we are at about $215M with arb costs. If we want to stay under the $40M line ($246M total counting player benefits), we have about $31M to spend. Assume we save $4-6M for mid season deals, we may have about $25M to spend. $16M x 2 or 3 yrs Eovaldi $9M x 2 or 3 yrs Familia/Ottavino/Miller

Porcello is a horse. 10 years with never being under 27 starts or 162 IP. 8 straight seasons over 175 IP amd 28+ GS'd. He's started 31+ times in 7 of the last 8 seasons. Even if you throw out Keuchel's first season, he has been under 175 IP in 3 of the last 6 seasons. I'm not saying Keuchel is a slacker or injury prone, but I wouldn't call him a workhorse.

Oops, fixed it.

Final 2018 Splits vs RHPs (100+ PAs unless noted) 1.051 JD 1.037 Betts .923 Lin (56) .901 Bogey .877 Beni .825 Pearce (37) .788 Holt .780 Moreland .768 JBJ .748 Swihart .691 Nunez .527 Leon .518 Vaz vs LHPs (60+ PAs unless noted) 1.207 Betts 1.018 Pearce .966 JD .809 Bogey .718 Holt .694 Beni .684 Moreland .641 Nunez .619 Devers .603 Vaz .562 JBJ .466 Leon .319 Swihart .180 Lin (17) You can see why Pearce looks so important. he was one of only 4 Sox hitters over .718 vs LHPs.

My choice (likely not Cora's) vs RHPs 1. Betts RF 2. Beni LF 3. Bogey SS 4. JD DH 5. Devers 3B 6. Moreland 1B 7. Nunez/Holt/Pedey 2B 8. JBJ CF 9. Vaz/Leon C vs LHPs 1. Betts RF 2. Beni LF 3. Pearce 1B 4. JD DH 5. Bogey SS 6. Devers 3B 7. Nunez/Holt/Devers 2B 8. Vaz/Leon C 9. JBJ CF 13th everyday player: Swihart or Lin (Quiroz/Hernandez/Chavis/Ockimey/Travis)

Yes, I went back and adjusted $1M off the books.

Does Pearce's signing now prevent someone else's?

The lowest salary on MLBTR's projections was $6M/1, and Pearce did not even make the list, so this does not look like an overpay. It's the years that surprised me.

Updated for Pearce signing (and Smith FDA)... Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included: In Luxury Tax Dollars 31.1 David Price 22.0 JD Martinez 20.1 Rick Porcello 18.7 Mookie Betts 13.8 Dustin Pedroia 13.5M Chris Sale 11.9 Xander Bogaerts 7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr. 6.5 Mitch Moreland 6.3 Steve Pearce 5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached) 4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez 4.5 Christian Vazquez 3.4 Brock Holt 2.3 Tyler Thornburg 2.3 Sandy Leon 1.5 Matt Barnes 1.4 Brandon Workman 1.4 Steven Wright 1.2 Heath Hembree 1.1 Blake Swihart $177M Total (21 players) $2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players $2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster $14.5M Player Benefits $18.5M Sandoval $214M Total

Not so fast! Trade Moreland! (LOL)

Wow! One year! Excellent!

He's had some great numbers, but his BB/9 scares me, and I'm not sure about a lefty closer in Fenway. The GB rate is nice, but he's K'ing way less (than 2015-16) and may be in the process of reinventing himself and a non-K guy.

I live just outside of Houston. Many here have seen a significant drop off. His K rate is down from 8.4 to 6.7 over 3 years. His WHIP has been over 1.285 in 2 of the last 3 years. Outstanding bulk? He's been under 170 IP in 2 of the last 3 years. That's not anything like Porcello. 2016-2018 Porcello has 100 more IP ERA- 89 to 92 WHIP 1.19 to 1.25

I was glad the Yanks got him at the deadline. He'll still be too costly for my liking. If he'll take a one year deal, I'm listening.

He's still better (eyes closed) than Devers at 3B.

Cause nobody should want that train wreck back.

Who is moving to 1B? Devers? For just one year of Donaldson? Pearce makes the most sense, if we go that route. Kikuchi would give us a low AVV and possibly 5-6 years, but he's a lefty. For RP'ers that could be a closer and won't cost as much as Kimbrel: Familia Ottavino Herrera Cody Allen (might take a 1 year deal) I'd stay away from Britton, Robertson and maybe Miller (health?)

I feel Keuchel will, so I'm glad we aren't in on a lefty.

Yes, the O's traded him, and Ben signed him that winter.