I'm assuming a reset, so there's only so much Henry and DD can do, under that circumstance.
I think you are underestimating how important Bogey & Porcello are to our chances of winning. Moreland, Pearce, Holt & Nunez cannot be easily replaced with just about no spending money. Maybe Chavis & Dalbec can do well, but one from Chatham or Lin will be replacing Bogey, so expecting something useful from those two replacing 3 infielders is a big stretch.
We've also already lost Kimbrel & Kelly. Would we have won last year without Porcello, Bogey, Kimbrel, Kelly, Moreland, Pearce, Holt, Nunez, Leon, Pom & Thornburg?
I think we'd have a slight chance that year, which is better than the cliff I had been projecting.
Remember, other teams will be getting better, while we lose key players.