moonslav59

I'm the one bringing up the Sale differentials, and I never said Sale will suck or even be bad or average. I said I was worried about the learning curve and building a comfort level with Swihart and to a lesser extent Vaz. Are you saying those past, sometime massive, differentials are meaningless? If not, how long would you guess it will take Sale, Price and Porcello to get to a near comfort level these guys had with Leon (and Vaz when comparing Vaz to Swihart)? Again, I am not crushed by Leon's departure. His offense has been putrid for 2 years, and he was basically just 2 pitchers' caddy last year. The world will not end. I'm sticking with my 104 games won projection, but I'm not as confident about it. Sale, Price and Porcello have pitched with many catchers over their careers, and one more should not make or break anyone. I'm pretty sure all three would much prefer Leon catches them over Swihart, even if he hits a .300 OPS. Their feelings about Leon vs Vaz might not be all that different, except for maybe Sale.

Leon 2009: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=5FOZXOXsNYugjwT9qqu4Ag&q=sandy+leon+2009&oq=sandy+leon+2009&gs_l=img.12...5369.5369..8445...0.0..0.63.63.1......1....1..gws-wiz-img._zMUjyvq92g#imgrc=rJMMojKAtOcnVM: Leon 2014: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=5FOZXOXsNYugjwT9qqu4Ag&q=sandy+leon+2009&oq=sandy+leon+2009&gs_l=img.12...5369.5369..8445...0.0..0.63.63.1......1....1..gws-wiz-img._zMUjyvq92g#imgrc=rJMMojKAtOcnVM: Leon 2019: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=MVSZXMj7DcfIjwSbpZOgDw&q=sandy+leon+2019&oq=sandy+leon+2019&gs_l=img.3...1158.3298..5215...0.0..0.61.169.3......1....1..gws-wiz-img.qj60SbrIpK8#imgrc=t-ljwfsCo3uNUM:

It took VTek 7-8 years to get good on offense and defense. It's not unheard of, especially for someone who has been hurt and spent time learning other positions or riding the bench. I have my doubts, for sure, but I'm holding out hope.

He can get better. The catching position probably takes the longest to fully master. Let's see what happens.

I get your point, and I have never denied pitchers can become more or as comfortable with Vaz or Swihart. My concern has always been how long the learning curve might be, and if they ever reach the same level. We chose the unknown over the known, and I get the argument about upside potential.

Good point. I never thought of him that way.

It's not about staff ERA, it's about staff ERA with VTek vs the other catcher on the same team. He clearly got the best out of what we had. These are the pitchers with the most IP from 2001-2007. Other than Pedro, Schill & Beckett, there's not much there. Pedro 2.45 w VTek (4491 PAs) (best of any catcher with 134+ PAs) 2.62 Piazza (788 2.71 Hatteberg (959) 3.08 Fletcher (2524) 3.40 Castro (776) 3.86 Lo Duca (477) 6.60 Schnieder (213) Schilling (Joined Sox post-prime) 3.22 DMiller 3.27 Lieberthal 3.51 Daulton 3.96 VTek 4.25 Mirabelli Wakefield (Vtek struggled catching the knuckler- no doubt) 2.87 Mcfarlane 4.12 Mirabelli 4.42 Hasselman 4.53 Hatteberg 4.56 KCash 4.59 Kottaras 4.66 VTek 5.16 VMart 5.21 Salty 5.24 Slaught 5.60 Stanley DLowe 3.52 RMartin 3.63 VTek 3.96 Hatteberg 4.45 BMcCann 4.91 Mirabelli 5.17 DRoss Beckett .299 IRodriguez 3.68 VTek 3.73 Lo Duca 4.52 AJ Ellis 4.56 Redmond 4.83 Salty 5.46 Shoppach 6.97 KCash 7.94 Lavarnway 10.32 Kottaras

He looks no different today than 3-4 years ago.

Let's not gloss over the intangibles VTek brought to the game. He was a great game-caller and a master hitter analyst. He became a great pitch blocker & framer. His only weak area on defense was his arm. From 2001-2007, he had the 3rd best catcher WAR (18.2). To me, that is great and certainly much better than "above average". His OPS in that period was .811. That is great for a catcher.

I think it is pretty obvious 2-3 SP'ers on the Sox loved to have Leon catch them. They will never say they don't want Swihart catching them, but the fact is Swihart has 0 PAs caught with Sale and 48 with Price. That is not just happenstance.

VTek was great for about 5-6 years.

I'm willing to keep an open mind on Swihart's potential, and let's remember that VTek did not become all that great until 28 and older. I share your opinion on not seeing anything up to this point that would indicate he can be plus of offense or defense in a short period of time going forward.

Had we just released him, would we have been off the hook?

If he clears waiver and agrees to go to Pawtucket, do we still owe him $2,4M?

If he starts every time ERod starts plus a couple here and there, he may get just 40 games as a catcher, barring a Vaz injury. Maybe he plays some at 1B, but we have Moreland and Pearce (who has shown he can hit righties better than Swihart), and Holt can play 1B and may be in need of some PAs to stay sharp. Maybe he plays some OF, but with everyone healthy, JD should play OF in NL parks and/or when an OF'er needs a rest. Holt can also play OF (see 1B comment). I doubt he plays 3B or 2B, unless there is an injury. We have Nunez and Holt, and would call-up Lin if an infielder gets hurt. I'm still not sure Swihart gets "the chance" everyone is waiting for.

That would mean an injury or a September call-up.

I'm hopeful Vaz can fill the void, but I think the learning curve with Swihart may take longer. The good thing is that ERod doesn't seem to care who catches him and Eovaldi has not been here long enough to miss Sandy all that much. Porcello's numbers are close, too. My guess is Vaz catches Sale, Price and Porcello plus some with Eovaldi. Swihart catches ERod a little with Eovaldi. (Just my gut feeling.) One last time, here are the current career splits by catcher: Sale 2.42 w Leon (1250 PAs) Best of all catchers 850+ PAs 3.40 w Vaz (218) No PAs with Swihart Price 2.83 w Leon (769) Best of any catcher with 455+ PAs 4.32 w Vaz (1113) 5.73 w Swihart (48) Porcello 4.14 w Leon (2030) Best of any catcher with 230+ PAs 4.15 w Vaz (564) 4.59 w Swihart (498) ERod 4.00 w Leon (415) Best of all catchers with 222+ PAs 4.08 w Swihart (4.08) 4.24 w Vaz (1178) No catcher in MLB has gotten a better ERA with more PAs than Leon with these four pitchers who have had good to great careers. Eovaldi (small sample size alert) 0.55 Vaz (65) 3.86 Leon (146) No PAs with Swihart If Swihart catches just ERod, maybe the learning curve will not be too long or too costly.

I get that part, but what's the downside SCM33 is talking about. Had we just released him, what might we have gained?

I guess GMs and managers never disagree but still come to consensus. I'm not saying they did here, but I can speculate, can't I?

"Could be" does not mean it is. Cora obviously liked Leon over Swihart last year. It's not like there is no basis for the speculation.

Maybe batting Beni first will help that mindset to get on base more than hit HRs. We might also hope that the bottom of the order gets on base more for Beni & Betts. We were not horrible last year, but the OBP's of our bottom 4 slots was: .308 6th .298 7th .267 8th .312 9th Pedey and Pearce might help "lengthen" the line-up. OBP in 2018 .325 Moreland & .313 HRam vs Pearce .394 w BOS .289 Nunez & .294 Kinsler vs Pedroia ??? (.371 OBP 2016-2018) Swihart (.285) and Vaz (.257 in 2018 but .333 in 2017) getting more PAs to replace Leon's .232 OBP could help. JBJ having a consistent year from start to finish. Last year he had his longest stretch of consistency after starting off slow. .261 OBP his first 38 games .333 OBP last 106 games Nunez improving on his 2018 OBP. .289 in 2018 .341 in 2017 (.353 w BOS) .325 in 2016 .327 in 2015 We don't need a whole lot to go right for our bottom of the order to improve, at least in the OBP category.

It sure feels nice knowing so many top players want to play for Boston. Henry has created a winning organization that is the envy of every opposing GM, fan and player.

Looking at Verlander's extension, so was Sale's extension a theft. It was almost as "low ball" as the offer to Lester.

We'll probably never know, if they both agreed on the choice. My guess is Sale and Porcello and maybe Price would rather have Leon catching them, but we should be fine. We'll save some money for a summer pick-up and have Swihart under team control for several more years than Leon. There were pluses to either choice, and everyone know what I preferred, but like I said, choosing Swihart over Leon was not going to crush me. Best of luck to Sandy.

It will be interesting to see the final 2019 results between Devers & Andujar.