moonslav59

Tampa's number's aren't "skewed", too? The Sox have often used the 5th starter for 1-3 IP, regardless of how well they were doing.

There is no countdown to the playoffs with this team. To me, there is not even a countdown to elimination. We were eliminated after the sweeps. It's time to play the kids and boost our draft slot pick. I'll never root for us to lose, but we should play the kids and let the losses come without bitching about any losses going forward.

I'm not arguing about how the juiced ball has ruined baseball. My point is the juiced ball is making pitchers look awful- even the same ones that were great 1-3 years ago-- like Sale. Sure, pitchers need to throw inside more, but that trend did not originate overnight.

Cora has realized it's time to lose and raise our draft pick slot. Genius!

Yes. $19M/1yr looks like a no-brainer, unless we choose this winter as the reset year.

Why expect him to stay healthy? Why is loss of velo the only clue that decline is taking place, especially as he heads into post 30 territory? Why expect 29 year old numbers at 31, when he has shown decline and continuing injury issues? Is it because he's a Yankee? You expected a lot out of Happ, this year, too, and we got into it last winter. It seems to me, your expectations are as rosy or more about the Yankee pitcher as mine are for the Sox pitchers.

Lester is still pitching well. Beeks is doing okay. Logan Allen and Kopech may do well. But yeah, we need to find someone who knows how to identify great young pitchers and someone who can develop them better than we have. We can spend big on FAs, so why can't we spend big on top minds?

Many of those same pitchers are still around. Even the ones that are still in prime, now mostly "suck".

He's not a Yankee, so he doesn't count.

I've heard the walk year argument too many times. It's not always a good thing. Paxton's lack of innings and GS'd over his career would be a concern to you, if he was a Sox player. Sale's "stuff" can drop quite a bit and still be better than Paxton's stuff. (Price still has very good "stuff," too.) Some Paxton info: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=11828&position=P&statArr=6&legend=1&split=base&time=season&ymin=&ymax= Last 3 seasons xFIP 3.25> 3.02> 4.26 FIP 2.61>3.24>4.26 ERA- 71>93>94 WHIP 1.10>1.10>1.43 HR/9 0.60>1.29> 1.60 BB/9 2.45>2.36>3.43 K/BB 4.22>4.95>3.33 Somehow, I have to believe, if he was a Sox pitcher, you'd be claiming he is on the decline. I'm not sure how you get that worse without having worse "stuff" than the last 2 years.

Oh, I'm not downplaying the epic fail of 2019. We did win 2 more games than the Yanks in 2017. I don't hold our loss against the Astros in the playoffs, while the Yanks beat the Twins in the WC game and Guardians in the nexxt round against us.

I'm still clinging to the idea that by resetting and spending very large in 2021, we can keep the "rebuild" to one year. I know we cannot expect to rebuild the farm by having just one down year, but we may get a decent draft slot this year and next, plus a little more international pool money to at least begin to get better on the farm, which may start helping beyond 2022.

Bogey should not be on the list, since he will still be in prime when the expected rebuild to greatness occurs. Devers and Vaz are keepers, too. Anyone not under team control beyond 1-2 years would be up for trade. Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and maybe Holt are gone (last year). Betts. JBJ, Workman & Wright (FAs after 2020). (Some could be brought back for 2021.) FAs after 2021 are close calls: ERod, Barnes & Hembree Anyone under team control but that will be significantly beyond prime in 1-2 years could be up for trade. Price, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Sale

Okay, that is more realistic. Id say Price & Paxton are close to a toss-up, but I can understand anyone liking Paxton better, especially looking at Price's recent trend. I tend to look at 2-3 year sample size and trends, which also show Price in decline, but Paxtons huge drop off this year looks more concerning, to me, than Sale's, who has other numbers that show he is not really having such an awful season as you make it out to be. Paxton has also only started more than 24 games one and more than 20 twice. At age 30, that has to be a ding on his value. Last 5 seasons' IP'd: 803 Price (3.47 ERA/ 1.17 WHIP) largely in a hitter's park 587 Paxton (3.71/1.24) largely in a pitcher's park. Last 2 seasons: 281 Price (3.87/1.21) ERA+ 117* 263 Paxton (4.01/1.23) ERA+ 105* * Includes park adjustments

Why not use playoff numbers with Eovaldi vs Sev?

I'm fine with the Price signing, too. I liked it at the time. He was the best starter available in a time we needed an ace. I'm wondering about his point that we could not replace Price at $31M starting with his opt out year.

Forget money, Forget Futture years of team control. If you had to have just one SP'er for 2020, who would it be? Sale or Tanaka? How about for just 2021 (no money involved) assuming Tanaka will still be a Yankee then?

Price over Paxton is an absolute homerism for next season, cmon. For the price, it’s ridiculously in favor of the Yanks. For production this year, they’re within 0.2 in WAR with Paxton having a bad season for him. Add an extra year on a rapidly declining Price and you’ll still take the guy going in the wrong direction? Take off the rosy glasses man. Your point is well taken on this one, but it's not any where near a clear choice for next year. Price had a down year in 2016 and bounced back the next 2 years. BTW, his FIP over the last 4 years is 3.74. It is 3.64 this year. Not all indicators signal a steady decline in progress, but I'll give this one to you. Tanaka has always had a month of s*** every year. He just had his. He’s also been a better postseason pitcher. Sale is the better regular season pitcher. That’s not debatable nor is it close. When the lights come on and the games really matter, Sale is nowhere in sight. Tanaka is the better postseason pitcher. Take whoever you want, but for a Yankee team poised to make the playoffs the next few seasons, I’ll take the guy who dominates when the lights are brightest. Also, you think Sale’s contract will look like a steal? How much Kool Aid are you drinking? Diminished Sale will never live up to the contract. So, now post season stats are the chosen criteria. Can you just choose one and stick to it for all comps? You are so convinced Sale is done, despite the fact that most great starters bounce back after a down year or two. We'll see. If you said Sale will "probably" never live up to his contract, I'd have more respect. You are so certain about Sale but leave the window open for Paxton, Sev and other Yankee pitchers. ERod has the track record. You’re correct there. German has the control. 5 yrs of control vs 2 when the current year production is essentially the same, I’ll take the longer control. I only said you should deal ERod because he only has two years of control left and if you rebuild, those two years won’t be good. If the Sox go for it next year, you need ERod. Again, I am not talking money or years of control. I'm talking next year. ERod should be better than German, and I think most baseball projections will agree. If we are talking cost and years of control, I can see wanting German over Sale, but again, I was responding to your post about the Yankee starter being better than the Sox rotation NEXT YEAR. Can we stay on one line of debate. (I'm happy to debate longer term and contractual comps, and will likely agree with you.)

Who was the poster who was adamant about how Price opting out would hurt us? I wonder how he feels now.

Remember when we dumped CC and Beckett's contracts by including AGon in the deal to LA? Those days are gone. There are no suckers like that anymore, but it would be nice to be ale to trade Price, Castillo, JBJ and Pedey with Betts and try and rebuild in one winter.

I guess it's hard to now, and that's why I hate these kind of changes to the game, especially made in secret. They ruin the integrity of the game and its history. It could be a little of both, but how can we ever know.

Why 2 years and not 3 or 4?

Well, that’s part of it. Tanaka just threw 8 shutout innings and usually finishes the year strong. His ERA will be around 4 by the end of the season. Sale is the better regular season pitcher, but Tanaka is the better post season pitcher and it ain’t close. I’ve seen Tanaka do this every year now where he is an abject disaster for a month. He usually comes out of it on fire. Yesterday was the start, I hope. Tanaka also hasn’t seen a demonstrable downturn in stuff like Sale has. Sale is has five more years on his contract at $29 mil per. Tanaka has one more year on his contract at $22.5 mil per. Who’d you rather have? You know I respect you, Jacko, but of late, you seem to be changing criteria to judge players on your team vs our team. A great recent start by Tanaka has deep meaning. One by Sale has little meaning. Sale is better than Tanaka. Sale has been better than Tanaka. Sale will be better than Tanaka. My point specifically said apart from the money. I'll take Sale anyday. When he bounces back, his contract, which begins next year will be viewed as a steal. Paxton has been the enigma. His stuff is there. His FB is exactly what it has been the last two seasons. He’s allowed 1 more walk per 9 and 0.5 more HRs per 9. Otherwise, he’s been a bit unlucky. His stuff and prior performance point towards better results to come. He’s also controllable for one more season under arbitration. Price is currently hurt and has been on a roll of s*** lately. His velocity is at a career low and he’s almost 34 (next month). He’s heading in the wrong direction and he’s got another 3 yrs and $31 mil per season on the docket. Who’s you rather have? I'd rather have Price, but for the money. German I am still not sure what he is. He’s been dominant and beatable at the same time. Great K rate and walk rate, insane HR rate. He became more of a pitcher this year throwing less than 50% fastballs with nearly 20% changes and 35% breaking balls. Stuff is really, really good. Control is good. His strike zone command can be spotty. He’s only 27 and we control him for another 5 years. ERod walls more guys. He K’s around the same amount. His HR rate is high, but below German’s. He’s actually a few months younger than German. His FIP and xFIP are almost identical to German’s (better FIP, worse xFIP). But he’s under control for only two more seasons. Who’d you rather have? ERod- hands down. He has a longer record of decency and is improving. Luis Severino has been an ace for two seasons finishing within the top 10 in CY young in consecutive years. He had an injury to his lat muscle that the Yanks initially misdiagnosed which caused the setback. No surgery needed and he’s ramping up now. It was Sevy’s first significant injury and it didn’t require the knife. Sevy is under control for 3 more years at a total of $30 mil. Eovaldi has seen more knives than a Benny Hana. He’s also 4 years older. He had elbow surgery this year and was tossed into the pen. He’s had a history of being an injury prone, mediocre pitcher in his history and outside of one magical month, has done nothing to dispel that. He’s under control for the exact same amount of time as Severino, but for a total of $21 mil more. I'd clearly take Severino and said as much in my post. So, considering cost and control, how could anyone advocate for your squad? Considering cost: the Yankee choice is much closer. Considering control: The Sox. Considering who is better: Clearly the Sox. It's not even close. Considering who will be better next year, and this is what I responded to: Clearly the Sox. Not even close.

The buck stops with DD. We need to move on from his leadership this winter.

I'm not sure the pitching is any worse than 1, 2, 5, 10 or 15 years ago. I'm not sure how those guys would have done with the juiced ball and smaller ball parks.