I guess I must be uncommon, then.
(BTW, the "overpay" was not just about giving 4 prospects for a RP'er. It was also about him being paid like a FA closer, at the time.)
That only happens when going over the $40M line. We should be able to avoid that.
I know it's not "our money," but paying 50% tax on $39.9M is a lot of money. I think it matters to Henry.
I also think Henry does not want his legacy to be remembered as "buying rings."
(Just my opinions.)
Okay, I guess I should never say everyone, but very close to everyone did say they were overpays to some extent. "Necessary," "Worth it," or "Maybe could have done it without adding Allen" were common opinions, at the time.
That may be true, but there are plenty of examples of "overpay" in winter trades.
We all agreed, the Sale and Kimbrel deals were "big overpays," despite many here liking one or both of the trades.
This deal would be to shed contract money. It is not intended to be an even talent trade.
In theory, the money saved could be used to sign Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, errr.... wait a minute....
Red Sox place Brian Johnson on outright waivers.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/red-sox-place-brian-johnson-on-outright-waivers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
Just playing around, and I found this trade to be about even:
To LAD: Betts, Price, Eovaldi, JBJ & Walden
To BOS: Jansen, Pederson & Pollock
(They actually say the Sox are owed $2M.)
There's no way we do what I showed, but if we are looking to be somewhat competitive in 2020 and better positioned for 2021 and beyond, the idea has some merit.
I'm not saying I want to do this, but here's the scenario of a mega fire sale this winter.
Trade:
JBJ, Walden, Johnson & Eovaldi & $7M a year for Ryan Pressley & Marisnik. We save about $10M on luxury tax budget.
JD Martinez for a prospect. (Save $22M)
David Price & $5M a year for Rougned Odor (Save $18M)
Mookie Betts for Prospects (Save $28M)
Total savings: about $75M. That leaves about $70M to spend and reset.
Sign (MLBTR predicted contract values):
$18M x 3 Jake Odorizzi
$15M x 3 Marcel Ozuna
$9M x 2 Tanner Rourk
$9M x 2 Julio Teheran
$9M x 2 Will Harris
$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom
$5M x 1 Pedro Strop
Look to re-sign Betts in 2021 and go back over the luxury line. The 2020 Sox:
SP1 Sale
SP2 Erod
SP3 Odorizzi
SP4 Rourk
SP5 Teheran
SP6 Lindblom
RP1 W Harris
RP2 Workman
RP3 Pressley
RP4 Barnes
RP5 Strop
RP6 Taylor
RP7 D Hernanzez/Osich/Hembree/Brasier
1. Benintendi LF
2. Bogaerts SS
3. Devers 3B
4. Ozuna CF
5. Dalbec 1B
6. Chavis DH
7. Vazquez C
8. Marisnik RF
9. Marco/Lin/Chatham 2B
Betts replaces Marisnik in 2021.
This front office has cut back before. Yes, they tried to stay competitive every year, but they clearly did not try to be HIGHLY competitive, every year.
We certainly could see 2020 being one of those years, but we have the ability to wait and see until July. That is the likely path.