moonslav59

This is "the cliff" many of us spoke of. 9 Keepers 6-8 prospetcs called up 8-10 low cost free agents signed this winter, just to field a team and stay under the tax line. This might be the opening day roster (with more than 7-9 keepers) with NO free agents signed: SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson/Velazquez RP: Workman (last arb year), Barnes, Hembree, Taylor, DHern, Brasier, Brewer/Walden/Lakins/Shawaryn Poyner/ Reyes/ Weber/ Kelley C: Vaz & Leon (at min salary) or Centeno 1B: Dalbec/Travis/Ockimey/Curletta (Chavis from 2B) 2B: Chavis & Marco (Maybe re-sign Holt) 3B: Devers SS: Bogey & Lin/Chatham LF: Beni CF: Castillo/GHernandez/Duran RF: Betts (if not traded) DH: Pedey/Dalbec/Ockimey No: JD Porcello JBJ Moreland Pearce Nunez Wright I think that's enough to get under the luxury tax line. (I'll do the math later.) Maybe Betts or Beni will be gone and replaced by 1-2 cheap free agents on 1 year deals.

Well said. It's hard to stay highly competitive every year, even when outspending everyone.

The offense is the least to blame, for sure.

Agreed, but the offense has struggled when needed

Yes, especially when you never reach the ultimate goal between rebuilds

Cleveland or Oakland might be more likely.

The farm was much worse by the time Theo left. Ben left DD with a great farm.

I've not given up. In fact, I think we should make 1-2 trades right now to get better (2 solid RP'ers). However, we can't just decide on July 30th to sell. We need to put out feelers now, just in case. Plan to win this year, but also plan to sell off, if we look hapless over the next 2 weeks.

Assuming we become sellers, I'd trade him for the best offer and then try to re-sign him next winter.

Does this mean we're done bashing Ben?

We also have to remember that although we have used the pen-starter strategy less than some teams, and our innings are higher than most, we've had an 8 man pen all year long. That should have more than made up for the 14 IP extra we have. I can't remember the last time the Sox have gone with 13 pitchers all year long. The pen was thin to begin with and short on top quality arms. The hope was they'd get us to the trade deadline, and some help would arrive. The hope was our starters would dominate and pitch longer than they have to help take some of the stress and innings away from the pen. The hope was the hitting would help make up for some of the pen's shortcomings. The pen has sucked, especially the last 4-6 weeks. The starters have sucked and not given the innings hoped for. (We've had some long extra inning games, too.) The hitters have not come through, when they have been needed most. We've scored a lot of runs, but not enough in close games. Even our defense has looked worse than expected, despite Devers improving a lot at 3B. Our GM, manager and coaches all are partially to blame, as well. To me, it's one giant let-down. Only Bogey, Devers, Price, ERod, Vaz, Workman, Chavis and a tiny sample size from Marco have been doing better than expected. You don't win with just 5-6 guys doing well.

Trade him to a big NL park team, and he's a good gamble for a contender. Plus, we can pay most of his remaining salary to increase the return prospect or two.

I agree, and I'd like to tell him we want him back before and during trading him this summer. He'd be a nice piece to a contender in need of bench strengthening.

You start a rebuild be deciding to suck for a year or 1.3 years (or more for "other teams"). We sell players under team control for 1.3 years or less and maybe others that look like they may not be helpful in 2021 and beyond. I realize we will not get anywhere near the haul you guys got in your sell-off, but it's a start. The next big step is to reset the tax this winter. We get a half way decent draft pick this year, due to finishing in the middle this year and maybe below middle next year. When the 2021 season comes, we'll be able to spend large to fill the many holes. We'll have a few prospects nearing or at ML readiness. It may take longer or much longer than 1.3 years, but we can possibly get back to respectability by 2021 by being a top spender, again- a luxury many rebuilding teams don't have or use. We could have a core of these players for 2021: Bogey Devers ERod Vaz Barnes Maybe JD, Betts and/or Workman (Holt?) Probably Price & Sale Chavis, Taylor & Marco Prospects obtained in trades plus maybe some from Dalbec, Chatham, Duran, DHern, Houk, Feltman, Houk, Ward, Shugart, Lakins, Scherff or Ockimey I realize, we'll need a lot of FAs to fill all the holes, but our budget will be lower and the end of Pedey's deal will be in sight by 2021 and the reset budget tax.

I'm not down on Brock. My point was that IF we become sellers, he should be traded. He's a FA after this season. BTW, he's the only guy I mentioned, "we can re-sign him" out of all the names I said we should offer in trade. Sounds like I value him higher than all the others on my trade list.

Of course, you sell the pieces you can get the most for, first, but you are underselling Holt. Yes, he's been fragile, but he's doing very well and can play many positions. Moreland is worth nothing right now. I am assuming he shows signs of life by the deadline- if not, then nada.

I never said we'd get a great haul for these guys, just get the best we can. If we pay most of Porcello's contract,someone will take a flyer on him. Moreland will not get much back, even if he comes back very soon and rakes.

De la Guerra 2-4 with 9th HR Castillo 2-4 with 9th HR Wade 7 IP 0 ER 3 H 0 BB 6 K (to 3.13 ERA) Duran 0-4 (3 Ks) Chatham 2-4 Curletta 2-3 (2B & BB) Dalbec 0-2 (2 BB & 2 runs) Haworth 5.2 IP 1 ER 5 H 0 BB 4 K Casas 3-4 (16th HR) to .859 OPS Lozada 2-4 (3rd HR)

It looks more and more like a fire sale summer, but we are not there, yet. We need to start planning for it, now, though. We should not make trades to try and win in 2020, but instead 2021 and beyond. Use 2020 to reset the tax with the idea that we may go heavy in the FA market in 2021. Anybody not under team control in 2021 or beyond, trade for the most we can get- preferably prospects that should be ready by 2021 or 2022, but really good ones farther away would be okay. Players under team control in 2021 and beyond, look at their ages and chances of being a key to helping us contend, consider keeping or trading. Sell for best return (pay 99% of salary, if needed): Porcello Moreland Holt Cashner (Pearce if worth anything) FAs after 2020 (may have higher value) Betts JBJ Workman (maybe extend?) Wright & Leon (if worth anything) Special cases: JD Martinez (back issues and age do not help his case as a key piece for 2021 and beyond) Price (Tough call. His age says no to 2021>>) Sale (Probably not worth trading while his stock is low. He may rebound and be a help in 2012>> or he could rebound, and we trade him while his stock is higher than now.) Eovaldi (Trading low is not a good idea.) After 2021 FAs Pedey (contract gone) ERod (keep) Barnes (keep) Hembree (Probably worth keeping, for now) It's easier to just list the keepers: Bogey Devers Vaz ERod Barnes Maybe extend Workman Wait it out with Sale, Eovaldi & Hembree

Anything we can get for Moreland and Holt is better than nothing. We can re-sign Holt, if we want him back.

Add Vaz and ERod.

I agree; I'd lay 5:1 odds he's nobody's 3-4 starter by then.

It's not spin. Just stop listening to someone posting half season UZR/150 numbers when even 1 full season is too small a sample size to you judge by rank. That's one side of the argument. The other is that JBJ may actually be playing the 16th best CF'er. (Was that the WAR or dWAR ranking?)

If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.

Yes. Maybe.