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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    If the team's defensive value mechanisms show JBJ is slipping on defense, we may not tender JBJ, even if he ends up hitting well. They may also be tired of the inconsistent offense that ends up being decent or okay by season's end. Another strong playoff showing might be an influence. (I think you're right. If he ends up at .700 or less, we will not offer him an arb. .725 might not be enough. $8-10M is a lot of money.
  2. moonslav59
  3. moonslav59
    I keep hearing about our "black holes" in our line-up, and it makes me think "context." Is it really a big weakness to have 2-3 black holes when almost every team has 3 or more? Here is where we rank in bottom order slot OPS from 2018-2019: 9 Slot .727 HOU .714 TOR .704 TBR .692 NYY .688 BOS (5th in MLB) #15: .578 8 Slot .860 OAK .800 Cubs .796 MN .777 LAD .729 TBR #15: .682 #23: .613 BOS 7 Slot .818 STL .814 MN .770 ALT .748 LAD .732 LAA #15 .690 #25: .649 BOS The mean OPS for the 7-9 slots are: .690 (7th) .682 (8th) .578 (9th) AL Only OPS by slot: 2019 Slot 2018 .694 7th .689 .729 8th .682 .634 9th .638 Black Holes are a common part of MLB Line-Ups.
  4. moonslav59
    1) Betts played most of his CF innings in his first years in MLB and his first innings as an OF'er in his life. 2) He was still a plus defender in CF (+3.0 UZR/150 and +2 DRS'd in over 1500 innings). 3) Just because he is better in RF, and he is, does not mean he could not be great in CF, once given the time to adjust. That being said, I love Betts in RF, especially in Fenway, where his speed and instincts are essential.
  5. moonslav59
    Marisnick? The guy with a career .667 OPS? The one with a .674 OPS just last year and .588 in 2016? You're joking, right?
  6. moonslav59
    I agree, and my cliff dwelling has always been prefaced with the notion that we'd reset the tax before 2021. (I thought we'd do it after 2019, but I'm not so convinced.)
  7. moonslav59
    They've done a fine job, but I'd still like to see us acquire a pen gem before the season is over.
  8. moonslav59
    True, but he had a few excellent seasons not named 2013.
  9. moonslav59
    I think our offense is deep, and it will show by season's end. We just had a few guys in slumps, early.
  10. moonslav59
    We had our chances. I was at the game. Seemed like the guys who needed to get the big hit got the big one at the wrong time (JBJ & Bogey solo blasts). Errors ruined Sales decent outing, although the pen looked good. We could use a couple W's this weekend.
  11. moonslav59
    Maybe a steep hill?
  12. moonslav59
    You saber geeks!
  13. moonslav59
    Because minor league chick dig the long ball?
  14. moonslav59
    Not you. A while ago someone was talking about him not being good since 2015.
  15. moonslav59
    Actually, he started heating up on May 20, 2018. May 20-31: .979 OPS (all with no HRs). It is the exact same date he started doing well this year. (Yes, his June of 2018 saw a .653 OPS- not good, but way better than .450.) From July 2 to the end of the regular season (259 PAs): .823 OPS, including 32 XBHs. 40 playoffs PAs: .835 OPS (5 XBHs) That's about an .825 OPS with 37 XBHs in his last 300 PAs of 2018. People act like it was so long ago he showed signs of extended bat life.
  16. moonslav59
    It's still a little down, but with Leon catching him, there's no stopping... Chris Freakin' Sale!
  17. moonslav59
    Yes, and that is a much smaller sample size. I'm okay with the choice, and it did not really surprise me. Porcello is looking very good since Leon returned, so we gotta like that.
  18. moonslav59
    While I don't think the odds of a reset after 2019 or 2020 are as high as I once did, I still think it is possible (maybe more after 2020 than 2019). I do think staying under the $20M line may be a high priority. If that is true and JD stays, it's almost certain Porcello does not come back.
  19. moonslav59
    Ockimey with 3 BBs. O Hernandez with 2 hits and 2BBs Witte with the 3-run job. Some guy named Marco Hernandez went 2 for 4. Feltman lowered his ERA to 6.23 with 2 Ks and o ERs in 1 IP. Duran goes 3 for 4 with a BB and a 2B. He's hitting .408 (1.024 OPS) Fitzgerald went 4 for 5 with 3 rbi. He's upto .850 OPS. Casas with his 7th dinger.
  20. moonslav59
    My Bucks are s***ing the bed after going up 2-0. [/bIt doesn't matter, since the Warriors have been preordained the 2019 NBA Champs.
  21. moonslav59
    JBJ has begun going to LF. Is his slump over? Will he bust out big time, or is this just a tease? He's brought his OPS up from .421 to.511 in just 4 games. He's 6 for 18 with 2 Hrs and 2 2Bs. Interesting note: before this mini-hot streak, he had as many BBs (16) as hits, but he has not walked in these 4 games.
  22. moonslav59
    This is the context I meant my statement to be taken: Personally, I think Henry wants to reset after this year, especially since we won in 2018, and some of the pressure is off. If this is true, it's a major budget constraint that pretty much means we lose every FA-to-be and can't replace anybody through cheap free agents. If we set the limit at the $19.9M over mark, we will have the ability to keep JD or sign someone (cheaper) to replace Porcello and/or JD. If we set the line at $39.9M over the mark, we can stay about as competitive as we are now, but may have to lose Porcello and replace him from within or with a cheaper FA. If we are okay going over $40M, we can keep everybody and maybe add a moderate FA somewhere (pen, 1B, 2B?). To me, the budget Henry sets or strongly suggests will be the major factor in what happens next year and what ends up happening with Betts after 2020. If we reset after this year, we may be able to afford to pay Betts (and the tax) afterwards.
  23. moonslav59
    Before the year started, I suggested Leon catch Sale & Price, based on past CERA and related numbers, but Vaz has caught Price more. CERA/OPS Against Price: 2.76/.632 w Leon (199 Innings) 4.25/.732 w Vaz (299 Innings) (The gap was wider in 2018: Leon 2.37/.587 & Vaz 4.68/.780. This year, Price has 0.00/.474 with Leon in just 5 innings & 3.75/.705 with Vaz in 36 innings.) Porcello 4.04/.723 w Leon 4.32/.751 w Porcello (2018: 4.25/.693 w Leon in 186 innings & 5.40/.863 w Swihart in 5 inn.- none w Vaz. 2019: 2.82/.606 w Leon in 38.1 innings, 5.93/.871 w Vaz in 13.2) Sale is a no brainer for Leon. ERod, it matter not.
  24. moonslav59
    Certainly a couple options. Donaldson needs to show he's healthy and good enough. Abreu makes sense, assuming the cost is not absurd. The self-imposed budget limit is going to be the biggest factor, IMO.
  25. moonslav59
    Chavis can play 1B, and Holt can in a pinch. I think it comes down to who we think will do better going forward.
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