moonslav59

Hail BREZ!!!!

And there I was thinking, "Gio is still pitching and Sale is not..."

We should have kept him under 140 IP.

I think Early would start game 3 and Harrison might get 2-3 IP, depending on how many IP we can get from Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert & Wilson. Do or die game: all hands on deck.

I was one for 7 on my hot takes on '25. I said Narvaez would win the FT catcher job.

Okay, hoes this? He's hit 30 bombs per 650 PA? He had a .473 SLG from '22-'24. (.480 '23-'24- that's top 30.) His .225 ISO from '23-'24 is top 30, too.

I'm hopeful Dobbins makes it back earlier, but August might be pushing it. (One year after surgery) I'm not counting on 1 IP from Houck. Casas is the tough call. His surgery was May 5, 2025, so one year is about what you said. With the Sox, add 1-2 months.

I think Abreu is still rusty, so we may/should go with Yoshida at DH and Ref in the short RF in NY.

CLE had the worst wRC+ in the AL, this year at 87. The other 5 teams were in the top 6. 119 NYY 113 SEA 112 TOR (105 ATH) 103 BOS & DET

I like our chances as much as NY's. The home field advantage for all games kinda sucks, but the Sox had a winning road record. All AL teams have been up and down, so it's NY's time to be down.

I was 1 for 7, which is better than Bloom's record.

Quite a sensational leap.

Here is MLB.com's breakdown of Sox injured players: Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament right elbow/right flexor pronator strain/ Late '26 or early '27. Underwent Tommy John surgery and also a cleanup of his flexor tendon on Aug. 18. "So, attack the offseason and the rehab the right way," manager Alex Cora said. Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon, left knee/ 2026. Said he has heard different timetables, but none are longer than a year. Hopes to play on Opening Day 2026. Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear/ 2026. Progressing well several weeks after July 2 surgery. Expects to have a normal offseason and be ready for the start of Spring Training. Dobbins: Right ACL tear/ 2026. Underwent surgery to repair ACL on Aug. 13. The injury took place on July 11. Fitts: Right arm neuritis/ 2026. Regaining strength, but not throwing yet. Roman Anthony: Left oblique strain/ Mid Round Playoffs. The star rookie feels better moving around, but still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities and doesn't seem all that close. Marcelo Mayer: TFCC joint, right wrist/ Most likely not this year- but start of '26. Making progress in recovery from surgery. Has taken some grounders, done some throwing and taken dry swings. Outside shot he could return if Red Sox make a deep playoff run. Guerrero, Bernardino & Hicks might be available for playoffs. (Guerrero pitched rehab games.)

You may be right. I hope I am right.

Agreed. They would never offer that deal, now. That's different than saying he has to prove himself like Mayer does.

His career OPS makes sense, no? The one season you speak of was more PAs than the other two combined. Does it really seem absurd to think .820+ is my expectation?

I think our team is built better for a 3 game series than a 5 game series, but with so many days off in the playoffs, it's almost the same. Our 3 top SP'ers match up well with anybody else's. Our top 3-4 RP'ers match up well with anybody else's. Our defense has been top 10 over the second half of the season, and some metrics place us there for the full season. (9th in DRS and 10th in OAA.) Fangraphs has us 6th in baserunning. Our line-up could be an issue, as we will be facing some that are better than ours. I've always believed pitching matters more in the playoffs, but other teams have decent pitching, too. AL teams still in it... fWAR Pitching 18.5 BOS 16.5 CLE 16.3 NYY 15.2 DET 14.2 SEA 11.7 TOR (The two top seeds are the worst.) ERA-: BOS 86, CLE 91, NYY 96, DET 97, SEA 101, TOR 103 SP: DET 13.8, NYY 13.5, BOS 11.6, SEA 11.0, CLE 9.9, TOR 8.5 RP: BOS 6.9, CLE 6.6, Big drop) TOR & SEA 3.2, NYY 2.8, DET 1.4

His career OPS before 2025 was .830. Does that make sense? I actually low-balled him.

Mayer has never proven himself at the big league level. Casas went 840 PAs at .820. Yes, he has to prove he is over an injury and maybe a little bit that his first 840 PAs were not a fluke, but I see a big difference between Casas and Mayer. Casas was beyond the "development" stage of his career. He did not miss nearly as much time in the minors as Mayer. He had over 1200 PAs in the minors at .860. He'll be 26 in January. If he's healthy, he's a starter. He also hits lefties well enough to be a FT'er, unlike Lowe.

It may take a while for Casas to return, but I still think he'll be an .820+++ batter going forward. His 1B defense will likely never be even close to acceptable, so we should strive to set up the future with him at DH. That means no OF rotation through the DH slot, so one should be traded. That means we should still look for a way to trade the now red hot Yoshida, but if we can't/don't then Casas can play 1B until it's his time. I do think we need a plan B, and Lowe will be too expensive. Romy is an option as plan B, but right now he might be our FT 2Bman.

Plus Sandoval all year. Criswell may have missed a few but was mostly in the pen, this year. Gio & Bello missed a few starts early on. Perales might have pitched for BOS, this year, too. 30+ each by Sandoval & Crawford (Perales) 20+ each by Houck & Dobbins Some by Fitts, Gio, Bello, DMay Easily 162 possible starts, yes!

Top BB% since 2023 by Sox players still on the team: 13.2 Anthony 13.0 Casas 11.2 Refsnyder (Retire?) 11.0 Campbell 10.3 Bregman 9.4 Abreu 8.5 Narvaez (not too shabby for a rookie catcher) 7.7 Duran

I forgot they swept the first series 2-0. I just remembered the Astros sweeping them.

True, but most were the last 2 years. 2023 was Casas, Murphy, Bernardino & Kelly ('22 Duran & Bello) 2024: Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten (DHam & Sogard) and Harrison graduated with SFG. 2025: Anthony, Narvaez, Mayer, Campbell & Dobbins (Fitts & Guerrero) ________________________________ 2026? Early, Tolle, Jh Garcia, (Possible: Perales, Sandlin, Romero, Uberstine) 2027: Arias, Clarke, Valera, Taylor (Maybe: Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Phillips & Eyanson)

Team Records Since June 30th: 50-28 MIL 48-29 BOS 49-30 TOR 47-31 PHI 48-32 CLE 47-32 SEA 46-33 NYY