moonslav59

Two Top 10 teams lost: #7 Penn ST #9 Texas My top 20 1. Ohio St 2. Ole Miss 3. OKL 4. ORE 5. MIA 6. TX A&M 7. IN 8. ALA 9. GA 10. Tx Tech 11. LSU 12. TN 13. GA Tech 14. Missouri 15. Michigan 16. Illinois 17. Penn St 18. Texas 19. Notre Dame 20. BYU

Is that you, Fred?

I was just jabbing Splendid. I'm a big Brez fan. I'm not sure JH will spend as much as we need. I got hopeful after the Bregman signing, and he also went from $10M/1 to $21M/1 on a SP'er, but then he dumped the Devers contract, so I'm back to wanting proof he's turned a new leaf. If he doesn't realize this is the window open wide, he's blind.

So you assume JH will spend the money and Brez will spend it wisely.

They could trade 4 and sign Tucker.

They think they are saving money, and I guess they did pay less than $20-30M a year for a long term deal, but they've spent... $11M Perez (2 yrs) $10M Richards (1) $10M Paxton (1) $10M Kluber (1) $12M Wacha (1) + Hill (1) $21M Buehler (1) That's about $75M on SP'ers, with almost all of them failing to some extent. Wacha and Hill did okay, but missed some time to injury. $10M Hendriks (1 as RP) and $8M/2 for Diekman, who we unloaded early on. Jansen, Martin & Chapman worked out fine.

We already have an OF'er who can take Duran's place, and he'll be better on D. I'd love to trade Yoshida, so Duran can DH, but that is likely just a dream. I admit it seems counterintuitive to know we need to improve our offense and then advocate trading Duran- a top 3 offensive player on the team. I'd be okay trading Abreu or even Rafaela, instead, but IMO, and OF'er not named Anthony should be traded. We'd still have Jh Garcia & Campbell (both RHBs) in reserve. We have a much bigger needs than 4th and 5th OF strength. I'm not for trading Duran, if we don't add Alonso, Schwarber or maybe Suarez or K Marte- maybe two, if Bregman bolts.

IMO, FA SP'ers are too costly and long term and risky. We've had good luck trading for SP'ers, so maybe that has biased me. We should trade for a SP. Use the finances and maybe a second big trade for 2-3 big bats (1-2, if Bregman stays.)

I like to look at OPS Against, but I admit it has not been a great predictor of MLB success. IP matter, too. Here is a list I find important; OPS Against (IP) ERA .480 Clarke (38) 4.03 A-/A+ (60K:27 BB) .537 E Rivera (87) 2.48 A+/AA (108:46) .568 Fajardo (72) 2.25 FCL/A- (83:27) .575 Mullins (102) 2.21 A+/AA (123:51) .592 Tolle (92) 3.04 A+/AA/AAA (MLB not included) 133:23 .596 Early (100) 2.60 AA/AAA (MLB not included) 132:40 .623 Rogers (105) 3.09/A+/AA (129:57) .627 Aita (115) 3.98 A-/A+ (99:30) .657 Holobetz (101) 3.04 A+/AA (89:15 best ratio on this list)

Too bad the Yanks didn't start Gil in game 3. TOR 10 NYY 1

Weren't you the one who said we should trade for a catcher? (Murphy or Rushing) IMO, we should try to pool our financial and trade capital to add the best 3, maybe 4 players we can afford. I'd suggest.... Not in any order 1. 3B: Bregman, Suarez or Mayer/Story? 2. 2B: K Marte, B Lowe, Torres or Mayer/Story? 3. 1B: Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Casas/Campbell/Romy? 4. #2SP: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly or Giolito/Keller? I think I trust Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS more than Casas/Campbell/Romy at 1B, so if we have to choose one to skip, it would be 2B or 3B. That makes it this if it's 3 not 4: SP 1B 2B or 3B

That would be ideal. I'm sure he thinks he deserves a shot at more than being a platoon player, and this year's numbers support the idea that maybe he has earned a shot at playing more- perhaps FT. 2021-2023: .600 OPS in 239 PAs 2024: .723 OPS in 216 PAs(.879 v L/.498 v R) 2025: .826 OPS in 341 PAs (.978 v L/.718 v R) 2021-2024 combined: .802 v L/ .532 v R He'd probably get a chance to play FT on other teams, but I doubt we pencil him in for that in 2026. .718 is not great and might be an outlier. Maybe he can platoon 1B with Lowe or Casas, although Casas had done well vs LHPs to start his career (.814 v L and .796 v R) More likely he can platoon at 2B or DH.

Could this be a workable plan? Trade Hicks, Paez and Wong for Sean Murphy to play 1B & C. (The AAV is about equal.) Trade Duran, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan. Trade Campbell, Tolle, Sandlin and DHam for K Marte. Sign E Suarez to play 1B and be Mayer/Story's back up for 3B, assuming Bregman bolts. If we can trade Yoshida, do it. SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early/Dobbins/Fitts/Harrison/Perales RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell, Murphy, Kelly/Moran/Guerrero C: Narvaez, Murphy 1B: Suarez, Murphy/Casas/Romy 2B: Marte, Romy, Sogard SS: Mayer/Story, Sogard 3B: Mayer/Story, Suarez LF: Anthony, Jh garcia/Yoshida CF: Rafaela, Jh Garcia RF: Abreu, Jh Garcia DH: Murphy/Yoshida/Romy

Our best hope is that Anthony is the real deal and gets 650+ PAs. He would be one of the big bats needed to boost us above the 2025 team offense. Since he had 300 PAs, this year, he'd technically be just 1/2 an addition, but since he was gone at the end, I'd count him as a full addition. If Bregman bolts, with his missed time, we can maybe call teh Anthony plus and Bregman loss as a near push. If we trade Duran or Abreu, we'd need even more added on O than we already think we need. Trading Rafaela and not Duran or Abreu would help the offense, but at what cost to the D. Plus, we'd be back to an all LHB OF. We certainly can't count on Mayer to be a big plus on offense. He might be, but just counting on him to play defense for 145+ games might be asking too much. Casas could be another big add to the offense, from within the system, but like Mayer, his health will always be a big worry. Jh Garcia (RHB OF) or Campbell (RHB LF, 1B, DH) are also possibilities, but how can we reasonably count on enough of all these guys to stay healthy and produce on offense? They seem more like perfect plus depth pieces than reliable and proven FT players. Maybe we roll the dice with all our young pitchers and returning from injury SP'ers and not add anyone to replace Gio and Buehler. Those two combined for 48 GS and 257 IP. Add the loss of 19 GS and 112 IP from Houck, Newcomb and May, plus another 6 GS from openers, we are looking at over 70 GS needed to be filled by more starts from... Crawford 0 Dobbins 11 Fitts 10 Early 3 Tolle 3 Harrison 2 Criswell 1 Perales 0 Bello 28 (+3-5?) It's pretty risky counting on these guys to do well enough to carry us to a ring. Making up for Houck, Beuhler and Newcomb's starts could be easy but not Gio's. Also, can we count on Bello to do as well as 2025? I think we have to count on Crochet to be as good to have any chance, but we need a solid #2, IMO. Hopefully, we can do this AND add two solid bats to the line-up (at least one, if Bregman returns.)

I agree that Devers is not overpaid, but he's also not underpaid. We should be able to get an equal bat who can play a position for $30M x 7 to 8 years, though. Right?

Do you trust Romy at 3B? 2B and 1B, fine. Who is our back-up SS? (Please don't say DHam.) Sogard? Romy?

With all due respect, we won't even do half of this. One from Alonso or Schwarber would be near a miracle: both a dream. Valdez is old and has issues. Torres makes sense. If we spend real big, this winter, you can forget about Skubal for 2027. IMO, our roster and farm are deep. We need to choose the right guys to trade, and get it right- like the Crochet and Narvaez deals. Then, we need to be selective on who we sign. We can't sign another Buehler type.

Good take. Another way to possibly move on from Yoshida is to deal him for another big contract, but not a DH. We could then move Duran to DH and keep our OF'ers. Trade Campbell or Jh Garcia along with Crawford or Dobbins/Harrison/Fitts and fill our need at 2B, 1B, 3B or SP. Guys like DHam, Grissom and Eaton can be traded or moved on from. I'd like to keep Romy and Sogard as our utility depth- maybe Eaton, too. (Sogard and Eaton would be AAA depth.) Another way to free up some budget space would be to included Hicks ($12M AAV) in a deal. notin has mentioned a few deals for Yoshida and Hicks that I like, and I'd even throw in a prospect to make them happen, but I'm not sure anyone wants those two, and who they give back might be worse. I hesitate to begin expecting JH to fork over huge amounts of cash. The run at Soto could have been a sham. The Bregman signing was quickly followed by the Devers dump, so my doubts remain. I hope he realizes the window in RIGHT NOW! It could even last 3-5 years, if we do things right. I think Brez and Cora are the right guys to help make it happen, but some extra budget room would go a long way at improving the odds they get it right. Yes, the Buehler deal flopped. Yes, the Priester deal hurt us badly for 2025. Yes, the Devers trade was never balanced out. Some mistakes and oversights were made, but lots of good happened, too. Crochet, Narvaez, Chapman, Bregman, Wilson and even moves like Lowe, Eaton and the '24 addition of Gio worked out well. We have a solid foundation- warts and all. Use it. Build upon it. Let's go for it in 2026!

Agreed, and that is precisely why his trade value is so high. He also brings excitement to the game with his speed and unpredictability. Abreu's defense, lower cost and extra year of control tips the balance to keep, for me. I'm keeping Rafaela in CF with the idea that we will upgrade the rest of the offense to help mitigate his shortcomings on O. Also, trading Duran further emphasizes the need to add on offense.He has been a top 2-3 player in our line-up. Trading Duran and losing Bregman means we need to add at least a couple clearly better bats than those two. That is not an easy task, when you figure we also need a top SP'er. Duran as the centerpiece for a trade should fill one of those major 3 slots to fill. A Free agent can and should fill another. The next 1-2 slots are the hard parts. JH will have to break the bank (unlikely) or we'll need to trade other key players or top prospects to get the top talent we need to get to the next level. I doubt Campbell has that kind of trade value, even if coupled with someone like Tolle, but maybe that would be enough to get someone like Joe Ryan or K Marte. (Maybe we'd need to reluctantly add Clarke or Valera.) Lots of big Qs this winter.

I think it would be more than fine to have Yoshida bat 6th or 7th, Rafaela 8th and Duran 9th, but who bats 1-6? It will be hard to trade Yoshida, but needing him to bat 4th or 5th is major red flag. Hiding the long slumps from Rafaela are okay, due to his great CF defense, but we can't have other batters under .600 in a successful line-up. Duran is far from a negative player, but he really should be the DH- not Yoshida, and he should not be batting 1st, 3rd or 5th, like he did often in 2025. (He hit 1st or 3rd over 600 of his 696 PAs) Rafaela batted 2-7th for 177 PAs, which was over 1/3 of his PAs. It seemed like Yoshida took forever to get on track. He only had 205 PAs in 2025, but the vast majority were at the 4-5-6 slots. (163 total) When we have to slot Narvaez and Wong somewhere in the line-up, it becomes clear that we need to move on from one of Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela. Since Duran and Yoshida are both best suited for DH, and Yoshida is virtually untradeable, I think it has to be Duran. I know that sounds counterintuitive, as a major issue is offense, and Duran is far from our weakest link on offense. If we could dump half od Yoshida's contract to keep Duran, sign me up, but that seems highly unlikely. Our bottom 3 batters should then be 7 Masa, 8 Narvaez, 9 Rafaela. The 1-6 batters need to be better than these three, and I mean clearly better. The first positions that come to mind are 2B, 1B and 3B, if Bregman bolts. Counting on Mayer and Casas seems too risky, but don't be surprised if Brez counts on one or both, with no true fall back plan B that bats better than Yoshida at #7. I'm figuring we simply have to trust Anthony, Story and Abreu to fill 3 of the 6 slots on a FT basis. (Yes, Abreu moves away from platooning.) I'd be okay with Duran as the 6/7th hitter (flipping with Masa vs L/R,) and LF defense is not a major issue in Fenway, but with Jh Garcia and Campbell as OF options and Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu firmly entrenched as OF'ers I still think he should be traded for pitching or to fill the needs at 2B, 1B and 3B. (Ideally Duran DHs, but we aren't trading Yoshida.) So, we likely will count on Mayer (not Casas.) He can play 3B or 2B. The best idea might be to choose this winter to move Story to 2B or 3B and play Mayer at SS. Perhaps Arias will someday move Mayer off the SS position, but that is at least 1-2 years away, if ever. Since Mayer and Story can fill 2 of the 3 non 1B infield positions, it give Brez some flexibility on what position to add: 2B or 3B, or even SS. Suarez could give us a good bat and a 3Bman, but not a good defensive one, so we'd be back to the Devers situation, thinking he should be moved to 1B or DH. He's getting old, so a shorter deal might be attractive to JH, but I'm not sure he really "solves" the 3B hole, assuming Breggie bolts. Ideally, he'd be signed to play 1B but offer a plan B at 3B, if (and when?) Mayer gets hurt. Casas could provide the depth at 1B we have sorely needed. I think Suarez makes sense. I'd prefer Alonso or Schwarber for 1B, but neither provides depth at 3B for Mayer/Story. Any of the three would be a great add. We won't be adding 2 of those three. That leaves the decade long 2B problem. Our 2B slot has been historically bad, but it also offers us an opportunity to make a major gain with just one addition. Since we'd still need more offense after adding one of the big three bats listed above- I know huge assumption- I look at K Marte as an obvious trade target. I know he brings baggage, but adding K Marte and Suarez would fix our offense, even without Bregman. There would still be questions and concerns, but we'd have a stronger line-up and better fe]flexibility and depth than we have now. I'm not dissing our depth. IMO, our depth got us to the playoffs in 2025, but adding 2 major additions while losing 1 (Bregman) could be all it takes to right the ship. We'd still need to replace Gio, and I think a trade makes the most sense, but our line-up and depth could look like this: 1. Anthony LF (depth: Jh Garcia/Campbell) 2. Marte 2B (Mayer, Romy, Sogard/DHam) 3. Story 3B/SS (Suarez at 3B, Mayer at SS, Sogard) 4. Suarez 1B (Casas, Campbell) 5. Abreu RF (Jh Garcia or Anthony to RF) 6. Yoshida DH (Suarez/Casas/Romy) 7. Mayer SS/3B (Story, Sogard) 8. Narvaez C (Wong) 9. Rafaela CF (Jh Garcia, Anthony) The next big need would be a solid SP. Although we have decent and young depth, we need a proven #2 type SP'er. We can't trade Duran for Marte and a SP'er, so we need to sign a 2Bman (Torres?) or SP, or trade some young pitchers for Marte or someone like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez or Luis Castillo... some of them are not cheap.

Abreu is about in the middle on teh team for K rate (24%) and he walks more than others (10%) I would like to see a better OBP than .317, but I think I'd keep him over Duran and Rafaela. I think we'll trade Duran and one from Campbell or Rafaela. I think we trade DHam or DFA Grissom. Both will not be on our 40, next season. I think we add a young pitcher or two to a couple packages to sweeten the returns and tip the balance more towards O over pitching with out depth and farm. (My guess is we trade Sandlin, Mullins or Paez- all Rule 5s plus a surprise- like Crawford, Fitts, Dobbins, Harrison or Tolle/Clarke/Valera. Maybe Duran, Clarke & Sandlin for K Marte, then Campbell, Crawford & Tolle for Joe Ryan. We sign Merrill Kelly and E Suarez to shorter term deals. 1. # Marte 2B 2. L Anthony LF 3. R Suarez 1B 4. L Abreu RF 5. R Story 3B 6. L Yoshida DH 7. L Mayer SS 8. R Rafaela CF 9. R Narvaez C Bench: Wong, Romy, Jh Garcia, Casas/DHam/Eaton SP: Crochet, Ryan, M Kelly, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Fitts, Perales RP: Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Winckowski, Criswell, Bernardino, Hicks/Kelly/Murphy/Moran/Guerrero

The budget ($AAV) 28.3 Crochet 23.3 Story 18.0 Yoshida 16.3 Anthony 13.3 Chapman 10.3 Hicks 9.2 Bello 9.1 Sandoval 8.0 Duran 7.5 Campbell 6.3 Rafaela 4.7 Whitlock 4.5 Houck (est arb) 3.5 Crawford (est arb) 2.0 for Devers 1.5 Slaten (est arb) 1.5 Romy (est arb) 1.5 Bernardino (est arb) 1.5 Winckowski (est arb) 1.0 Wong (est arb) 1.0 Kelly (est arb) 4.0 Pre-Arb Players 1.7 Pre-Arb Pool 18.0 Benefits 196 Total $48M under threshold (No Bregman $31.6 if no buyout, Lowe est about $9=11M arb) If JH attempts to stay under the first tax line, there is not a lot to play with. I he goes $19M over, we can probably fill our major needs. $30M big bat (3B, 1B, 2B) $20M decent bat (2B, 1B/3B) $15M SP via trade

I was hoping this would not happen for another few eeks, but it’s “wait till next year” time, once again in Sox Nation. We made a decent run and provided some exciting games to watch and some up and coming players to look forward to watching going forward. I won’t get into speculation trades and signings, for now. That will surely come. I’m just going to provide a laydown of the foundation we have in place for 2026. We basically have 50 players on our 40 Man Roster, since 10 are on the 60 Day IL. We cannot carry any players on the 60 over the winter, and we have a couple prospects that may be added to avoid Rule 5 selection, so some choices need to be made. First, the 5 free agents: Matz is a FA who might be lured back. May is a goner. Wilson is likely a goner. We have a bunch of LH’d arms. Refsnyder may retire or return to BOS as a platoon corner OF/DF. Second, the options: Bregman is the big one. He has an opt-out after ’25 and ’26. He’s owed $40M x 2. Story has an opt out, but he will likely stay at $25M x 3. Giolito may opt out, if he’s healthy. If he’s not, we can buy out his option for $1M. Hendriks has a $12M mutual option with $2M buyout. We pay the $2M and say bye-bye. Duran has an $8M club option. He’s getting $8M. So, 5 free agents and maybe 2-3 players left from the options list. That brings the list from 50 to 42 or 43. Third, the arbs and non-tenders: Lowe: 4th arb of 4 might get expensive. I’ll guess non-tender or re-sign at lower cost. Arbs Year 2: Crawford (of 4) and Houck (of 3) and can go on 60 Day IL day 1 of 2026. First Arbs: Casas, Romy, Wong, Bernardino, Wink, Kelly I think we keep all but Lowe, so we’re down to 41 or 42. Fourth, the Rule 5s: Maybe we add 2 from: Sandlin, Mullins, Paez, Bleis, Hickey, Monegro, Song, but I’ll say one added. Back up to 42-43. My DFA or must trade list: Jose de Leon Grissom I Campbell Hicks Eaton DHam I think we can easily get down to 40 without any regret DFAs, but we may try to pull off a trade or two to get down to 40. (Yoshida is one idea. An OF’er plus another for a pitcher could be another way to gain a slot.) So, my projected 40 man roster before any trades or signings: SP (11): Crochet, Bello, Houck (to IL) Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle, Perales RP (13): Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Criswell, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran, Hicks, Sandlin C (2): Narvaez, Wong 1B (2): Casas, Campbell 2B (2): Romy, DHam or Grissom (one is traded or Grissom is DFA’d) 3B (2): Mayer, Eaton SS (2): Story, Sogard LF (1): Duran CF (2): Rafaela, Jh Garcia RF (2): Anthony, Abreu DH(1): Yoshida The budget is too difficult to determine with so many moving parts, like Bregman, Gio, Story and Lowe, but without Bregman, we’d have a lot of money to spend and still be below the first or second tax line (year 2.) I will present more on the budget, later. The highest need areas seem to be: A big bat (3B, 1B, 2B or maybe DH, if we trade Masa.) 3B/2B (could be filled with #1, Breman or Mayer/Story) Solid #2 type pitcher 1B, 2B, 3B (the one not filled in #1 or #2) Secondary upgrades possible at: Back-up Catcher SP depth Pen depth 3B depth

His last 17 GS is nothing to get gah-gah over: 4.13 ERA/ 3.98 FIP Last 11 were better: 3.32/3.95. I would not sign Cease. Last 16 GS: 4.69/4.09 (about the same as the season: 4.55/3.56)

Going 1 for 9 does not affect trade value, nor should it convince us a player should be traded. Duran makes $8M in 2026 and then has two more arb years. Abreu is pre arb and then has 3 arb years. Rafaela is owed close to $47M/6. All have very high trade value. With Anthony, Jh Garcia, Campbell and even Yoshida as OF options, we can afford to (and should) trade an OF'er from the list of 3. We could even trade two.