moonslav59

I've been on the sign Betts band wagon a long time. If Betts was going to be 32 when we sign him, I'd be signing another tune, but when you can get maybe half the years of a deal in prime and a couple more near prime, I'm okay with a couple bad years at the end. I know, some will say, wait 7-8 years and say that, and I get that point of view, but this is Mookie freakin' Betts we're talking about! Here's a look at the best WAR seasons by a Sox player since 1972, which is when I became a Sox fan: 10.4 Betts 2018 9.5 Ellsbury '11 8.9 Boggs '87 8.8 Boggs '85 8.6 Boggs '88 8.6 Lynn '79 8.3 Boggs '89 8.3 Betts '16 8.2 Valentin '95 7.9 Pedey '11 ... 20. Betts 6.6 in 2019 (Go back to 1967: 11.1 Yaz '67 10.4 Betts '18 9.6 Petrocelli '69 (WOW! Rico better than any year by Boggs!) 9.5 Ellsbury '11 9.3 Yaz '68 8.9 Boggs '87 8.9 Yaz '70 Bogey's best? 6.8 Dewey's 6.6 Beltre's 6.4 Papi's 6.3 Mo's 6.3 Youk's & AGon's 6.2 JD's & Devers's 5.9 Manny's 5.8 (Bett's also had a 5.3 in 2017.)

I don't know enough about anyone that might be meddling with the choices of our next GM to know if it would be a negative or positive influence.

Theo was pretty young when he first stepped in as GM. This guy is supposed to be real smart. I'm going the optimistic route on this one.

Red Sox Interviewed Chaim Bloom for GM Opening "ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that “multiple sources” believe Bloom will ultimately get the job." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/chaim-bloom-interviewed-for-red-sox-gm-position.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

fangraphs has it at 41.3% and 44.6%, so who knows? These metrics should be rounded up and blown up.

Betts is the real deal. Letting him get away will be worse than letting Bagwell go. Much worse.

I guess Betts could get run over by Machado, too. Note: Pedey will turn 38 right as his contract runs out. If we signed Betts to 10 years right now, he will have turned 37 just as his contract expires. If we sign him after next year as a free agent, he'll be the same age as Pedey after his 10 year deal expires. Here's some major differences, though. Pedey signed an 8 year deal, so his contract years run from age 31 to 38- virtually all the but maybe 2-3 years are post prime. If Betts signs a 10 year deal at 2 years younger than Pedey was when he signed his deal, he'll have all but 4-5 years post prime. That's huge. Pedey's OPS before the signing: .861 2011 .797 2012 .787 2013 (signed extension 7/24/13) Betts's OPS before signing: 1.078 2018 .915 2019 ____ 2020? Pedey plays a more physically demanding position (2B) than Betts (RF). People claim speed does not age well, but power does. Betts has way more power than Pedey ever had. Pedey never had a SLG% above .493. Betts has been at .535 the last 4 years combined and .578 the last 2 years. I think Betts will be highly productive at ages 29, 30, 31,32. I think he will be productive at ages 33, 34 and maybe 35 He might be okay, but below his pay value at ages 36, 37 & 38. (How much below might be the biggest worry.) 6 or 7 good years and maybe 3-4 not worth the money years. Yes, it will suck, if he gets hurt or declines sharply at an early age, but this is the guy I'd break the guidelines for.

I think it means they stopped taking (or using) his advice a couple years ago.

there goes any chance we have at winning again!

100% yes? So MN had an equal chance as the Yanks? (And Mn wasn't even the worst team in the playoffs!)

Watching Suzuki catch for the Nats should be a wake up call for all those wanting an offensive first catcher.

Maybe Odorizzi and hope for an increase in IP.

I've never faulted Grady for that choice. Pedro was the best pitcher the Sox ever had. I'll take him at 75% than anyone else.

Getting rid of JBJ would put us just under the line, so the $22M saved on JD would be the spending budget, unless we dump more salary somewhere else.

Stros look snake-bitten, but I wouldn't count them out of the series.

Possible Free Agents This Winter 2020 MLB free agents by position WWW.MLB.COM Although a number of star players signed contract extensions before the 2019 season commenced instead of testing the open market this offseason, the current free-agent class still included many interesting names. Below, you'll find the list of this year's crop of notable free agents. The list will be updated throughout

He moved up from #7 to #3 while pitching just 4 IP the last 2 years. True, Chavis & DHern graduated, but still. My point was more about the lack of other prospects looking good enough to pass him or just stay ahead of him, where they were before the season started. We had some guys move up that show promise, but nobody that is getting the attention of national ranking services. Thaddeus Ward Gilberto Jimenez Noah Song (Mata moved up from #10 to #2.) I'm trying to be optimistic, but it's not easy.

We won't stay over the threshold, but even that better comp pick won't be worth nearly as much as we can get for Betts. Trade Betts, JD & JBJ for something really good. Sign some decent FAs that will be part of the new rebuilt contender but stay under the tax line. Reset. Go into the next winter with the idea of signing Betts of using $30+M to improve the team at 2-3 positions.

How will these fans you speak of feel when he signs elsewhere and we get a lousy 4th round comp pick? Look, I'm not for trading Betts and crawling into a hole. I'd like to trade Betts and try to resign him. I'm one of the few on this site who is fine with offer $300+M/10 after 2020. We can spend this winter, with the long term in mind, using the money saved by trading JBJ & Betts and maybe JD. Stay just below the tax line. Then, go big next winter (Betts or other big names).

One perk with living in Central Time is the 7:08 start times.

I don't think we need any statement from Betts saying he isn't likely to come back here for most fans to understand trading him is the right thing to do, assuming we've offered a reasonable deal and we are 10-15 down in July..

I could see JBJ & JD traded this winter and Betts in July, but I think my original prediction is more likely.

If we're talking about just the biggest contracts given to pitchers over 30 or 31/32, IMO there are too many that worked out well or okay to use the word "always". It's not like there are hundreds and hundreds of bad big deals for aging pitchers. There are certainly some real duds, especially in the early days of free agency. How many of these do you think were bad to awful? How many were okay? How many were good to great? Highest paid pitchers of all time (some were under 30 when signed): Starting pitchers The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value: 1. Justin Verlander, $33,000,000 (2020-21) 2. Zack Greinke, $32,500,000 (2016-21) (reduced for deferrals) 3. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22) … Clayton Kershaw, $31,000,000 (2019-21) 5. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20) 6. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21) 7. Jacob deGrom, $27,500,000 (2019-23) 8. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20) 9. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19) 10. Chris Sale, $25,600,000 (2020-24) 11. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19) … Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23) … Jake Arrieta, $25,000,000 (2018-20) 14. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18) 15. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16) 16. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18) … Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15) 18. Patrick Corbin, $23,333,333 (2019-24) 19. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15) 20. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13) 21. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20) 22. Jordan Zimmermann, $22,000,000 (2016-20) 23. Johnny Cueto, $21,666,667 (2016-21) 24. Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17) 25. Yu Darvish, $21,000,000 (2018-23) 26. Rick Porcello, $20,625,000 (2016-19) 27. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13) 28. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13) 29. Adam Wainwright, $19,500,000 (2014-18) 30. James Shields, $18,750,000 (2015-18) 31. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12) 32. Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005) . . . Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13) . . . Jeff Samardzija, $18,000,000 (2016-20) 35. Tim Lincecum, $17,500,000 (2014-15) . . . Homer Bailey, $17,500,000 (2014-19) 37. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12) 38. Josh Beckett, $17,000,000 (2011-14) . . . Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16) . . . Nathan Eovaldi, $17,000,000 (2019-22) . . . Miles Mikolas, $17,000,000 (2019-23) 42. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13) . . . John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14) 44. Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2007) . . . Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2008) . . . Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14) . . . Anibal Sanchez, $16,000,000 (2013-17) . . . Hiroki Kuroda, $16,000,000 (2014) . . . John Lackey, $16,000,000 (2016-17) . . . Scott Kazmir, $16,000,000 (2016-18) . . . Rich Hill, $16,000,000 (2017-19) 52. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09) 53. Jake Arrieta, $15,637,500 (2017) 54. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14) 55. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000 (2012-16) 56. Max Scherzer, $15,250,000 (2014) 57. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08) 58. Kevin Brown, $15,000,000 (1999-2005) . . . Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12) . . . Hiroki Kuroda, $15,000,000 (2013) . . . Hisashi Iwakuma, $15,000,000 (2016-18) 62. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11) 63. Mark Buehrle, $14,500,000 (2012-15) . . . Jake Peavy, $14,500,000 (2013-14) 65. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11) . . . David Price, $14,000,000 (2014)

I never said the winningest teams always win, but there is a clear correaltion, and it's not "anecdotal evidence." You can argue my sample size is too small, maybe, but I am trying to capture the state of MLB today not many years ago. Go ahead and throw out the wild card game and make it the top 4 vs the bottom 4, and if it was a pure "crap shoot" (not that you are saying it is a 100% crap shoot), you'd expect something close to a 50% break down of WS attendees and winners. 66% of the teams that go to the WS are top 4. That's is pretty far from 50-50. Yes, it's closer to 50-50 than 100-0, but it is clearly a significant correlation. The 73% winning it all number, which could be 75%, if the Astros win this year is what I was really arguing, and winning it all is very far from a crap shoot. 73% (11 of the last 15) is a very clear correlation.

Baaahhhhh Hummm bug. Not one person on the board has said BA is not at all significant. I think I'd have remembered that, and it would have caused an uproar. People have said it is not as important as OBP or SLG or other stats or metrics, but never "not at all significant."