moonslav59

Yes, but as far as I know, no team has ever passed 2 teams from so far down.

How far behind 2 of the teams were they with 24 to go?

Where ya been? I've been saying it's over for weeks.

There's a hole vs RHPs, so I expect Dalbec or Ockimey to make the 25 man roster next spring. Career L-R Splits (some small sample sizes): vs RHPs: .774 Chavis (271 PAs) .691 Marco .550 Travis (100 PAs) vs LHPs: .796 Travis (149 PAs) .785 Marco .742 Chavis (111 PAs) Minor Leagues 2019: vs RHPs: .901 Ockimey (355) and .924 in 2018 (336 PAs) .785 Dalbec (418) BUT .944 in 2018 (401 PAs) .728 Travis vs LHPs: .955 Travis .928 Dalbec (140) and .849 in 2018 (142) .539 Ockimey (109) and .564 in 2018 (145) Ockimey kills righties!! I'd add him to the 40 man and call him up.

Yes, I gave up after the two sweeps. My guess is, if we get to the point, again, where we have to win, we will come up short- just like then. I hope I am wrong, but I just don't see it happening this year. This team lets us down time and time again, then teases us with semi-competitiveness, then lets us down again. It could change. We could get hot like we did a couple times last year, but I'll believe it when I see it. If we come back to make the playoffs, I fully expect to be crucified by you guys and would deserve it. As for playing Travis vs LHPs. I'd play him over Moreland vs LHPs, even if I felt we were still in it. Moreland is at .455 vs lefties this year and under .700 career. We can always PH Moreland once a RH'er comes in, and Moreland has done great as a PH'er. Tinkering gets the best on the field- not the opposite. Moreland was platooned last year, and we won. Moreland as a PH'er: 1.167

If everyone comes back healthy, they can trade 1-3 of these guys for a better than decent SP'er. Plus, they have spending room. All of this, make me think we should reset and look to start getting better in 2021 and beyond. That's when their arb and vet costs will be pushing them to the point we are at now.

Okay, yes, I misread that. My bad. It should be easier to catch 2 of 3 teams than just 2. Needing 2 of 3 teams to tank a little bit is better odds than needing 2 of 2.

True, but some guys, who stay healthy, should more than make up for those regressions, but then again, I said that about us going into this year.

I think you misread my post. I'm saying you guys look better going forward. I said, if everything goes right, we may be able to reset, re-sign Betts and other FAs for 2021 and be a top 3-5 contender.That means every FA we sign works out well, and we get some help from our weak farm. I never said we'd have higher odds of winning than the Yanks in 2021.

Come on. Having to pass 2 teams is twice as hard as catching one.

Exactly. Just this year, we've seen Chavis and DHern contribute. Travis and others have been marginal, at best. Next year, we may see Dalbec, Chatham and maybe Houck give us something. Mata, Casas and Groome are farther away, but there is some hope. Nothing like the hopes of past Sox farms and 29 other teams, but there is still some hope.

That may be true, but all other teams have more or better or both.

At times, he has shown promise. That's about the only thing good I can say about him. If we are looking to reset next year, I'm okay with keeping him one more year as a guy to throw into the mix in hopes a few pitch well enough to make the 25 man roster next year and not suck. I would shed a single tear, if we traded or DFA's him this winter. Velazquez still has options, but he's about the same as Johnson.

NYY Vets : Stanton, Severino, Hicks & Britton (last year team option) Pre-arb and or 3+ arbs: Judge, Torres, Sanchez, Urshela, Andujar, German, Voit, Tauchman, Frazier, Green, Montgomery, Wade, Holder, Loaisiga, Hale, Adams and more BOS Vets: Sale, Bogey, Price, Eovaldi, Vaz (last year team option), JD? (player opt outs) Pre-arb and or 3+arbs: Devers, Beni, Marco, Johnson, Brasier, Velazquez, Chavis, DHernandez, Walden, Travis, Weber, Brewer, Lin, Smith and more Look at the 3 arbs or more lists. It's not even close.

Their farm is better than ours, which might not be saying much. Add to that the years of team control of their best players as compared to ours and their contractual costs, and it seems pretty clea that we have some work cut out for us, if we want to compete after 2020 or 2021. NYY team control years: 4+ years: Vets signed: Stanton, Severino & Hicks Pre-arb + 3+ arbs: Torres, Andujar, German, Voit, Tauchman, Frazier, Montgomery, Wade, Holder, Loaisiga, Adams and more 3 Arb Years: Judge, Sanchez, Urshela, Green, Hale Vet: Britton (last year is option) 2 Years: Vets: Chapman, Ottavino Arbs: Bird Here's the Sox look: 4+ Years: Vets: Sale & Bogey pre-arb+3+arbs: Devers, Johnson, Brasier, Velazquez, Chavis, DHernandez, Walden, Travis, Brewer, Lin and more 3 Years: Vets: Price, JD (player opt outs), Eovaldi, Vaz Arbs: Beni, Marco Hernandez, Weber, Smith 2 years: Vets: Pedroia Arbs: ERod, Barnes, Hembree

No, Arbs are not part of this. I have our arbs coming in at over $60M, not counting Leon. If you trade Betts, then add about $30M to your number. That leaves about $28M without Betts. Plus, we'll have about 8 players at the min MLB salary- not minor league salary. That adds about $3-4M. Here's what I came up with: Projected 2020 Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget $Millions 31 Price 27 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey 4 Vaz Sub TOTAL $135M 7 Players Arbitration Estimates: 28 Betts (3rd arb of 3) 10 JBJ (4 of 4) 9 ERod (3 of 4) 4 Beni (1 of 3) 3 Workman (3 of 3) 3 Barnes (2 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) 1 Marco (1 of 3) 1 Wright (3 of 3) (Leon: non tenders & maybe re-signed for $1M) Sub TOTAL $61M 10 Players 8 (Likely) Pre-arb on ML Roster Devers Chavis Taylor Walden Travis Johnson Velazquez DHernandez Sub TOTAL $4M 8 Players Other 15 (Likely) Plyaers on the 40 Man Roster Dalbec, Chatham, Lin, Brewer, Weber, Reyes, Shawaryn, Poyner Brasier, Kelley, Lakins, Poyner, Ockimey, Feltman, Houck Sub TOTAL: $2M 15 Players $15M Player Benefits $217 Million Total That's about $9M over the first Luxury Tax line. If we trade or non tender JBJ, we will be slightly under the tax line with no money to spend on any free agents, if we want to reset. If we trade Betts and not JBJ, we'll be at $189M. That leaves us $19M to spend and still stay below the Luxury Tax line. It would be $58M to stay below the max line. Is that what you meant?

I have very little confidence in Travis, but it's time to see if he can be a platoon 1Bman (that can also play LF). If he fails, this year, I'm fine with dumping him this winter or after ST'ing next year. We are losing Moreland and Pearce, and may have to use Chavis at 2B, next year, so it may be down to Dalbec, Travis and Ockimey at 1B, and a platoon may be what works best for our "reset" year. Having little confidence does NOT mean give up. I had little confidence in Chavis and Travis Shaw, too. The sample sizes at the MLB level are small, but Sam's OPS vs LHP is respectable enough to have a look-see, and I'd rather do that now, so we'll know sooner rather than later. Career: vs LHPs: .796 (149 PAs) vs LHPs: .550 (100 PAs) If anything, we know one thing for sure. Moreland's got "nothing" vs LHPs. He's the reason we signed Pearce, instead of a pen arm. Moreland vs LHPs (career): .667 (20 HRs in 875 PAs) Moreland is at .455 this year. That's "nothing!" Travis has 5 HRs in 149 PAs v LHPs. That's 20 over 600 PAs vs Moreland's 20 in 875. I wouldn't complain, if we played Moreland over Travis vs lefties

We need a 100% reversal of what happened the last time we played a must win 7 game stretch.

Yes, the Austin Carr victory over UCLA ended just a 19 game winning streak. I mixed it up with the Dantley one. Yes, the Georgia game will be very hard to win. We also have a lot of semi-tough games, this year and USC at home and away at Mich & Stan. @ Louisville (Tonight) New Mexico @ Georgia #3 Virginia Bowling Green USC @ Michigan #7 Va Tech @ Duke Navy Boston College @ Stanford #25

So, you're not counting farm products the Yankees traded for as Yankee prospects? I think we have one in that category: ERod. How many do the Yanks have? Let's face it: the Yanks still have a better farm than us. They have a better budget situation than us. They have a much better record than we do, right now. IMO, it's time to reset, retool, and try to keep the rebuild stretch to as short as possible. If we do everything right, we may be back to being a top 3-5 contender by 2021, assuming we keep Betts and spend near the max line again the year after we reset (2021).

I'm not advocating the strategies used in the 70's and 80's. Does anyone think we will be a top 6 or even 8 favorite next year without some kind of major addition? We are not going to sign a closer to a one year deal. Any major addition will be multi-year, and hence will put the already massive budget even higher and spread out longer. I'm not saying we can't win it all in 2020. I even brought up the fact that we could go for "one more year." My point is, at what cost to the future? We've won more rings in the last 15 years than the 30 years I followed the team before 2004. We've also had some short down periods in these 15 years, where we regrouped. We even had a major tear down with the Dodger trade and the pitching sell-off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront and Andrew Miller. Both led to rings. That is a strategy we have used and could use again. This time, it all about timing. Should it be this winter or next? I'm thinking this winter will work out better. We could re-sign Betts next winter and get back on top more quickly- in theory. Yes, it's just theory, and going for broke one more year has merit, too. I won't be upset, if we go for one more quick win before rebuilding, but I am nearly certain a rebuild will happen soon, and IMO, going for one more win will deepen and lengthen that rebuild process. I plan on being alive for at least another decade. I admit I'm looking more long term than most, but I'm not for returning to the 80"s philosophy- far from it. I'm for doing what we've been doing since Henry became our owner- winning every 3-5 years.

On the farm... Yesterday: Mata has career high 7 shutout innings and 9 Ks. Feltman with a 2 inning save. Also, yesterday J Diaz goes 7 shutout innings with 8Ks. Today: Chatham 2-4 in the loss. Portland got 1 hit. Casas 2 for 4 with Salem.

The longer we try to win it all the deeper hole we dig.

My old man went there, and I grew up rooting for the Irish during the Ara Paresghian era. We had some great B-Ball players my 4 years there, but Digger Phelps was an idiot. The class of '81 had Orlando Wooldrige, Kelly Tripucka and Tracy Jackson- all made the NBA. Others on those teams that made the NBA: Bill Laimbeer John Paxson Bill Hanzlik Bruce Flowers Dave Batton Toby Knight Duck Williams This was just after Adrian Dantley's time at ND. I remember Austin Carr's team ending UCLA's winning streak.

I'm a domer. I graduated in '81. My freshman year was the 1977 Championship season led by 3rd string QB, Joe Montana, over Earl Campbell and the Longhorns.