moonslav59

When has he done a good job rebuilding a farm system? He's known for trading away the future for the now, which I was fine with, but he's not known for building up teams that have a bad farm and no money to spend.

I know IPs matter, but not when most are s*****. I'd still put ERod, Price & Sale ahead of Porcello, this year.

I'm not saying we'll get "a lot." I do think we can get a decent prospect or low cost RP'er for him. Maybe not. If not, then non tendering makes sense. Maybe we can bring him back at less than the arb would have been.

Well said. I loved the signing at the time, and I have no regrets, now.

Why did so many teams want him over the last few last years? Has he gotten that worse? Is $2-3M more in salary really going to make a huge difference, if some GM needs a great CF glove man who may hit over .730?

Poooof!

We did carry one more RP'er than we have for many years prior. I'm not so sure the "overworked" point is very strong. Sure, we've had plenty of games where they had to come in early, but it's not like our best pen arms have seen a big jump in IP. IP 70 Walden (He was a starter in 2017.) 63 Workman (Not much higher than the norm.) 54 Barnes (63 in 2018) 49 Velazquez (8 GS) 55 last year 48 Brasier (34 last year in just the second half) 48 Brewer 42 Taylor 38 Hembree (On IL for times) 60 last year Last year we had (RP Innings only) 4 guys over 60 IP, Velaz at 55 and Workman & Johnson near 40. This year: 70 Walden 63 Workman 54 Barnes 48 Brasier 48 Brewer 41 Taylor 38 Hembree 27 Velaz 25 DHern 22 Weber After our top 7 RP'ers, we saw about 190 IP by scrubs (#8 to #22). In 2018, we saw about 200 IP from our #8-20). We should blow by that, this year.

So, your pen was better last year than this, but you only finished 1 game over your Pythag. This year, it's worse and you are 7 games over it. Your theory sounds good, on paper, but what data do you have to support this claim?

I'm not wild either, and my guess is none put up .800+ OPS at 1B next year, but if we reset, 2 should be serviceable enough to not be horrible. Throw Chavis into the mix at 1B, when he's not playing 2B, and we might work out a nice platoon situation with some promising upside. Ockimey is a RHP killer. The others have mixed results vs LHPs or RHPs, but if they can come near their recent 2 year norms on their splits, we could see .800+, but I doubt Ockimey will translate all that well into MLB. (I thought the same with Chavis, so maybe he can do okay.)

Betts will make close to $28M on his last arb. His luxury tac contract rate shouldn't be much more than $5M over that, epsecially, if they defer money or go 10 yrs to bring the AVV down. I'm also taking away JBJ's $10M or so. We'll have enough to sign 2-3 decent but not great FAs and stay near the max line. In theory, if we reset, we'll have about $40M to spend on Bett's raise, arb raises (losing Workmna, Wright and Leon) and FAs. We may have to say good bye to Hembree, but ERod and Barnes will be the only players on their last arb year in 2021. Beni & Marco are the only two that will be in their 2nd arb of 3. Historically, 1st arb years are not huge contracts. If JD opts out after 2020, we'll have to replace him, but we'll have his money to use.

Our team OPS is 57 points higher in the second half of 2019 than the first. In the second half, we have 6 guys with an OPS over .880. We were 35-35 in the first half and 40-29 since. Our ERA improved by nearly a half run. We just can't win enough games, and it goes way beyond pen struggles.

The stat only measures HR power, and is not meant to be a total player value stat.

True, but so many horrible IP'd can be a negative. He's near to last in xFIP, this year.

Losing the 2019 Porcello is addition by subtraction. Losing JBJ will hurt, but we could still be highly competitive in 2021 by keeping Betts and adding 2-3 decent free agents. I know there are a lot of "ifs," but it could easily happen. The team we have now is not as bad as the record indicates (3 wins below Pythagorean). As much as you question Sale's fitness and declining abilities, if he is healthy, he's still a force. This "off year" still has him at 3rd in xFIP. We have a couple players that will be past prime in 2021, but not by a lot, and most of our key players will still be in the heart of prime.

Okay, but highly competitive in 2020? It is possible to trade Eovaldi or Price and keep JBJ, but I think JBJ makes more sense.

It is possible to reset this winter and 2020, re-sign Betts and some FAs to get near the max line and compete in 2021. A lot would have to go right, but it is possible.

Out of 108 starters with 100+ IP in MLB, here's how our starters rank in... ERA- 28. ERod (79) 43. Price (88) 53. Sale (91) 58. Cashner (95 mostly with another team) 99. Porcello (116) xFIP 3. Sale 2.94 21. Price 3.74 46. ERod 4.31 105. Porcello 5.41 ERod may not be high on these two lists, but he's a winner. He keeps us in games more than anyone else.

So I want some of you guys that are watching as many games as I am watching and those not quite watching as many of them to think back all those months ago and think about what you are NOT seeing or NOT watching in these broadcasts. For some others, get your noses out of the stat sheets and the spreadsheets and the advanced stat sheets and actually WATCH THE GAMES, watch the players in the games! With all due respect, this is total crap. I'm tired of this s***. I love stats. I've played this great game for decades. I've watched every pitch of every Sox game for decades. Some people can be "stat heads" AND watch and understand the beauty and nuances of the greatest game on earth. It's not an either or choice. Maybe for you, but not for everyone. I've been a huge fan of ERod's since we traded for him. He's a winner. The nibbling and pitch counts can get frustrating, but I'va always said "He's got some of the nastiest stuff on our staff!" That's not from some stat sheet or data mine, although those confirm what my eyes have seen. People keep saying us stat geeks are condescending, and maybe we are sometimes, but it goes both ways. Saying this crap only hurts your argument....which, in this case, I actually agree with some of it.

If we don't bring JBJ back, so we can reset, we may have room for one small FA signing: I doubt it would be Holt.

Good night

Another two words: Too Late

I've just got two words: Robo Umps.

Again, now that we are out of it...

Better when it counted.

Yes and before, when it counted. It's hard to criticize someone who just went over .900 and plays great D, but he isn't the same Betts as 2018- not really close.