moonslav59

Yes, unless we dismantle some (doubful). I am not predicting a last place finish. I looks like us cliff dwellers may be wrong as much as those who denied a down time will be coming soon.

I'm guessing you are right, but maybe the next GM is Jackie Bradley Sr.

It's hard to estimate salaries for FAs, but it's pretty safe to say some will be 1/3 or less the cost of JBJ's arb estimate of $9.5 to $11M. Here are the 3 year UZR/150 numbers of some guys mentioned with their ranking listed among the 57 CF'ers with 800+ innings in CF that are FAs or maybe available through trade: 5. Hamilton 10.0 (double JBJ's UZR/150) 8. Lagares 8.7 9. Dyson 8.3 12. K Broxton 6.5 13. L Martin 6.2 15. M Margot 5.3 16. JBJ 4.9 18. DeShields 4.3 21. T Pham 3.0 28. Maybin 0.2 DRS 5. Hamilton 23 7. Margot 19 9. Lagares 18 (almost 1.3 the innings as JBJ) 10. DeShields 18 12. Dyson 17 (half the innings as JBJ) 14. JBJ 12 18. K Broxton 7 (half the innings) 19. L Martin 7 (almost 1/3)

I agree. It might be a very short list- maybe even no list but just 1 guy. I trust Henry.

The next GM chapter begins. Who will it be? At least firing DD now gives us the time to choose from everyone available or coming available. I hate that many of the deals are made during the playoffs, so actually not being in them, gives us more leeway. Whoever we get, I hope he's an expert in farm building.

Okay, it may be short list, but that depends on what you think "dirt cheap" means. With JBJ slated to make $9.5 to 11M, the context may up what we consider "dirt cheap." Billy Hamilton should be very cheap. Jarrod Dyson is 35 and could be a nice bridge player for peanuts. notin mentioned others.

Good news! Welcome back.

What will the next GM's framework be? To reset in 2020? (My guess is, YES!) To build a winner in 3-5 years while also strengthening the farm? (I hope, YES!) To totally blow it all up and start over? (I doubt it.) I'm hoping we get a GM that will surround himself with people that know how to build and develop a farm, especially pitching. Free agent signings are largely hit or miss or miss or miss, and not many GMs have a great track record of choosing correctly. We may not finish in last over the next 1-3 years, depending on how extreme the "rebuild" will be, so maybe it won't be called a "cliff," but clearly the :down time" is now upon us. Having an owner like Henry should make it a bit easier to get back to the top or near the top in just a few short years, but it will not be easy under the rules of today's game. The next GM will have very little room for mistakes in drafting, signing and hiring staff, especially on big ticket acquisitions. I'm thankful DD brought us 3 division wins and a ring, and the "win today" philosophy worked- thank God! It's now the day of reckoning, and it's time to pay for that philosophy. Many knew this day was coming. We were hopeful it wouldn't come so soon or so steep, but here it is.

We've named them dozens of times.

What's surprising? You give a guy a full farm, a top spending budget every year and a solid core of stars to begin with. The one ring was great, and I'm super grateful, but the state of the Sox, right now, as we are still the top spending team is in decline with our farm ranked last and our budget issues not going away. The timing surprised me, but if the rebuild is to begin, why not give the next guy a head start?

Hit by a Yankee?

One forever stamp only.

So, it would be smart for other teams to cheat, too?

We'll win again within 5 years. Book it.

So, they need to start cheating, too?

Again, JBJ is not the only solid defensive CF'er available this winter. If we don't reset, he may be back.

2019 IP'd By Returning SP'ers: Boston 173 ERod 147 Sale 107 Price 48 Eovaldi 50 Velazquez 34 Johnson NYY 163 Tanaka 146 Happ 137 German 132 Paxton 58 Green 22 Loaisiga 0 Severino

Yankee ERA- Since July 21st 98 Paxton 102 Green 119 Tanaka 122 Happ 124 German 192 Sabathia The Sox are worse: 56 ERod 116 Eovaldi 118 Porcello 120 Sale 123 Cashner 133 Johnson 174 Price

He may be a below average hitter, but not a below average hitting catcher. Out of 31 catchers with 250+ PAs Vaz places 11th in OPS. 3 year sample size? Vaz is 19th in OPS at .700, but some of the guys ahead of him don't play much Catcher anymore or are close to retiring. He's average.

Okay, Vaz "doesn't play everyday," but did you know he caught more innings than all but 6 MLB catchers? So, I'd hardly call our catcher position a black hole. Plus, because he was put in the line-up as a non catcher so often, he's 3rd in MLB in PAs among players that are primarily catchers (464 PAs). I'm calling him "everyday," because he bats more than 90% of MLB catchers. I'm not for bringing JBJ back, but I'm not for paying to get a CF'er who can hit either. I'd take an excellent defender and a .600 OPS over an .800 guy who is an average fileder and will cost more than the $21/3 someone wants to offer JBJ. Yes, Travis is a black hole. He's at .701 and falling. My guess is Dalbec, Ockimey, Chatham or even Lin can break the line-up over him, despite not being able to play OF. (Lin can.) If we sign a cheap defensive CF, we'll have one black hole: CF, not 3. I suppose 1B or 2B could become one, but with 3-4 choices at each position, my guess is we can end up with 2 guys or a platoon that hits .750+ at each slot.

I'd like to see us acquire a dirt cheap super defensive CF'er for next season. I don't care about his offense. Keep JD at DH, except in NL parks. Let Chavis, Marco, Lin and Chatham fight for the 2B job, and Chavis, Dalbec, Travis and Ockimey fight for the 1B (back up DH) job. Let DHern, Houck, Johnson, Velazquez and Shawaryn fight for the 5 slot and long relief role. Maybe Ward, Hart or Feltman may be ready by mid season. (Mata by Sept?) Don't spend a penny unless we can stay under the luxury tax and the player looks to be part of a longer term plan. Team control/Age at end of team control (Oct 1st) 0 Porcello 30 Moreland 33 Pearce 36 Cashner 32 Holt 30 Owings 27 (I like Holt, but I doubt we go over the luxury tax to keep him. All others should be gone.) 1yr (FA after 2020) Age 10/1/20 Betts 27 (28 on Oct 7, 2020) JBJ 30 Workman 31 (Betts should probably be traded, if we know we cannot or will not extend or re-sign him. Workman turns 31 and does not have a long track record of success and health. He should probably be traded, assuming a reset.) 2yr (FA after 2021) Age on 10/1/2021 ERod 28 Pedey 38 Barnes 31 Hembree 32 (ERod is worth extending or re-signing after the reset. His age is right. Pedey is a no brainer. Barnes and Hembree will likely be gone.) 3yr (after 2022) Price 36 JD 34 (if he doesn't opt out) Eovaldi 32 Beni 27 Wright 38 Leon 33 (Beni is the only one in this group that might possibly be extended, and he'll be in prime years for 2021 and 2022, if those are the years we plan on being back near the top. If the rebuild is a 3 year plan, I suppose we could trade him. Sale may be traded, if he can build up some stick value and we want to clear budget space for alonger term rebuild. Explore trading anyone who does not look like they are in our plans for or beyond 2021. Maybe even trade guys not under team control or still within near post-prime for 2022.

"Ramirez" might do better.

I'm not sure $21M/3 is "team friendly."

I see your point, but some of these guys are very borderline roster players. Some will be gone- some might stick around. Let's see who should stay.

Whatever works is fine with me. Maybe someday, we'll see 3 guys go 3 innings every 4 days or 2-3 innings every 3-4 days.