moonslav59

Doesn't this kind of contradict this: I don't see the firing of Dombrowski as a sign that Henry is going to blow the team up, or anything close to that. Despite the way they have looked for much of this season, the team has a lot of talent and should be able to compete next year with some pitching help. I don't expect any big surprises in terms of getting rid of the starting players. I guess you could call trading JBJ a big surprise, but most would not. It is possible to win now while having a vision for the long term. Henry just needs to find the right guy to do it.

It's okay for Henry, who is richer than God, to want to squeeze every penny to make a profit, but Mookie has attitude issues for wanting what he can make on the open market.

soxprospects.com's updated September rankings: https://soxprospects.com/ (Note: Chavis & D Hernandez "graduated", so take that into account when looking at the +/- numbers.) 1) Casas (+2 from April) 2) Mata +8 3) Dalbec +1 4) Duran +9 5) Groome +1 6) Jimenez +11 7) Houck -2 8) T Ward +31 9) Song NR in April 10) Chatham -2 11) Lugo NR 12) Decker 0 13) A Flores -6 14) Zeferjahn NR 15) C Murphy NR 16) C Cannon NR 17) Aldo Ramirez +31 18) Howell -7 19) M Wilson NR 20) B Bello +1 Big Movers in the 20+ ranks: Minus: -23 Schellenger (20>43) -21 A Scherff (18>39) -17 D Reyes (19>36) -13 Ockimey (27>40) -12 Feltman (9>21) -11 D Diaz (14>25) -10 Northcut (17>27) -7 Shawaryn (15>22) -7 Lakins (23>30) Plus: +23 E Bazardo (51>28) +23 R Fitzgerald (56>33) +20 C Rafaela (54>34) +5 K Crawford 29>24

Betts will be 27 next year. If we sign him for 10 years, it's really just 9 more years, with his last season coming at age 36. While it may be true that players with his body type don't always age that well, I'm thinking most of the 9 years will every good to great years. The last 2-3 years may seem like a big overpay, but I doubt he'll be like Pablo or HRam by then.

Probably not as much as I'd want, but one year at $26-29M is not as risky as $300M/10, so if a team is looking for a championship in 2020, maybe they'll overpay, like we did. Betts is better than Kimbrel, so there's that, too.

I loved Kimbrel and said he was the best when we got him, but I hated the trade from day one, due mostly to his top contract. It was like we signed a FA and gave up 4 prospects. It didn't jive with me. As time went by, and closer contracts sky-rocketed, I mentioned the deal looked better, but I still wish we never made it. I was against the Pom trade, but not because I disliked Pom or thought Espi was going to be the next Pedro (Okay, I once said that "might be his upside), but because I thought we could have packaged him for something better (Sale or Quintana?). I thought the Thornburg deal was okay, because I was not high on Shaw, at the time, but I did think Dubon was a lot to give up. We didn't give up that much for Carson Smith, but Wade Miley has gone on to do some pretty good things. I loved the Sale trade and still do.

That's how I saw it. I even said, back then, maybe we could have gotten Sale & Quintana, but Q has not been great. The point was, it wasn't just about the trade vs a non trade, it could have been a different trade, and we can forever debate what those might have been like.

IP Price: 248, 220, 230, 75, 176, 107= toast Sale: 209, 227, 214, 158, 147= toast Eovaldi: 199.2, 154, 125, 0, 11, 53= toast Paxton: (highest in minor leagues 145) 74, 67, 121, 136, 160, 139= headed for greatness and about to lead the Yanks to the first ring since 2009! Severino: 193, 191, 0= no concerns- headed for greatness. Sale has more IP than Paxton the last 2 years. Price is just 16 IP behind. That may change, soon, but you get my point, right?

I know, but that was not my point. Sale, who has the second best xFIP this year, is toast, because his velo is down. Price has pitched limited innings recently. He's toast. Sevy missed almost the whole year, but his velo is the same, so he's not toast. Eo has missed a ton of time and is toast. Paxton has missed a ton of time but is going to be great because he's had 4 straight good outtings. I see a pattern. You should, too.

Houston really wanted Eovaldi, and we know how bad they are at evaluating good talent.

Funny how E-O's look major but Paxton, who has never gone more than 161 IP, are minor.

We'll see more about how all those trades worked out over the next few years. We won a ring, so that helps balance any judgment, but the hindsight jury is still out on many deals.

That one extra inning game that we lost, but it caused the team to come together. So much for "clubhouse chemistry."

Don't take this as me bashing Theo. I loved him as our GM, but even he admitted he made some big mistakes. Let's also not forget that the whole system of drafting and IFA signings was way different back then. It actually favored the big spenders and winners. Some top prospects dropped to the late picks out of "signability" issues, and big spending teams swooped in a drafted them & signed them. The IFA market was just about a free for all, and Theo (and Ben) did very well in that area. I think that's were we did best. The second most important farm builder for the Sox were the comp picks we gained by letting over-the-hill FAs walk. Theo's last draft included 4 comp picks as his top 4 picks: Barnes, JBJ, Swihrat and Owens. He also found Betts in the 5th round- something DD did not do. The year before (2010) he drafted Workman with a comp pick, but also Kolbrin Vitek, Brentz and Ranaudo. In 2009, he drafted Reymond Fuentes and Alex Wilson in the top 77 picks. 2008: Casey Kelly & Bryan Price. 2007: Nick Hagadone & Ryan Dent. 2006: Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Kris Johnson & Caleb Clay in the top 44 (2 comp picks). That's a long stretch of drafting poorly, mostly with low picks. You have to go back to 2005's comp pick laden draft to find his next good draft: Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden (top 47 picks). Ben's first draft saw 2 comp picks (Johnson & Pat Light) along with Marrero (all top 37). 2013L Trey Ball (#7) and Stanki 45th. 2014: Chavis (26th), Kopech (33) & Travis 67. 2015: Beni (7) & Rei (81). IFA Signings: Theo Doubront '04 Dice-K & Okajima '05 Tazawa & Cuevas '07 Bogey, Iggy & Montas '09 Margot '11 Ben: Lin '12 Basabe, Basabe, Bautista '12 Devers, DHern '13 Espinoza, Castillo '14 It may not be easy finding a GM that can rebuild with low draft picks and small IFA bonus pools. We also need a GM that can hire people who know how to develop young talent. Most of us think DD is NOT "that guy," but maybe there are only 3-5 guys who have a proven record doing so, and some of them have no rings, yet. I think of the hopes I had when we signed Dan D. He had a proven record of acquiring great young talent, but the Expos could never pay them through their primes. I thought, wow, this is perfect, and in many ways Dan D laid the groundwork for Theo, but he never won a ring by himself, and after he left the Sox, he proved nothing. It won't be easy, and I hope we choose right here.

LOL. I fixed it.

We'll likely keep Sale, Price and Eovaldi, even if just to hope their trade stock rises the first half of 2020. I think we keep Bogey, Devers, Vaz, Barnes, Workman and ERod. JD and JBJ may be the only big names to go, besides all FAs departing this winter. No, that's not even close to a "full blown rebuild." It does beg the "halfway" question, as losing those two, resetting the tax and trying to win in 2020 seem to be at odds with each other, and if the idea is not to win, then why not try to trade anyone not under team control beyond 2020 or 2021? I get the need to drawn fans and keep interest high, but I do worry about the "halfway" philosophy. It worked when we traded Lester & Lackey for ML'ers not prospects. I called that "halfway" back then. I had wanted top prospects not Joe Kelly, Allen Craig and Cespedes (who morphed into Porcello). Maybe it will work again, but then again, we didn't win in 2018 because of Kelly and Porcello.

I am 100% against trading him. I want to extend him for 10 years and $300M or more. That being said, if the Sox plan is not to re-sign him, then I see the benefit in trading him before we get nothing after he walks. Not knowing what the Sox plans are makes debating this issue hard to take a side.

Thornburg had some nasty stuff and off-the-charts numbers before the trade. The trade made sense, until we found out about the severe injury. It's hard to blame the GM for this type of deal, but yes, GMs are always judged on hindsight and are expected to know who will be getting hurt (sarcasm alert).

John Bolten was fired the day after DD was fired! Coincidence?

Mauricio Dubon- .820 OPS in 36 PAs in MLB and better than any Sox 2Bman. (.813 in almost 900 PAs at AAA.) He was part of the Thornburg deal.

He'll be scratched.

Castillo is on Ben.

Price was the best SP'er, besides maybe Scherzer to come on the market for a while. It had to be an overpay to get him. Dubon hurts more than Shaw. I still like the Sale extension and think he'd have gotten more on the open market had he been a FA after 2018. I disliked the Kimbrel & Pom trades the most, but my beef with the CK deal was that he was getting near FA money at the time, and he cost us top prospects. Later, the closer costs went through the roof, so his $13M didn't look so bad.

John Bolton is now available.

As long as Henry is the owner, I'm not worried about long stretches with no rings.