moonslav59

Yes, it was an overstatement. 700's point was this: if he opts out, it will be because he is pitching great, and we'd lose by losing a great pitcher, which makes sense, but I still hoped he'd opt out even if he had stayed healthy and pitched great due to his age and liklihood of decline and our ability to use his $30M wisely.

The Astros wanted Eovaldi last winter. He was injury prone then, too.

Sounds like a great deal for us! (OK, throw in Sam Travis! LOL)

He also hits for power. But, all that matters is speed ages poorly.

This is very true. Plus, people talk of how horrible it is to have such a large percentage of your budget tied to one or two (or 3,4,5) players. Let's look back at our championship seasons: 2004: $130M 40 man budget 22.5 Manny 17.5 Pedro 12.0 Schilling 11.5 Nomar Top 2: 31% (Theo's first ring) Top 4: 48.9% 2007: $155M 17.0 Manny 14.0 JD Drew 13.3 Ortiz 13.0 Schilling 11.0 VTek 9.0 Lowell 8.2 Lugo Top 2: 20% (Theo's 2nd ring) Top 5: 44% 2013: $176M 16.0 Lackey 14.5 Ortiz 13.3 Dempster 13.0 Vic 11.6 Lester 10.2 Pedey 9.5 Drew 9.0 Ellsbury Top 2: 17.3% (Ben's year) Top 5: 38.9% 2018: $239M 30.0 Price 23.8 JD 22.8 HRam 21.1Porcello 16.1 Pedey 13.0 Kimbrel 12.5 Sale 10.5 Betts Top 2: 22.9% (DD's year) Top 4: 41% Hypothetical 2021: $240M 33.0 Betts 30.0 Price (if not traded) 20.0 Bogey 19.4 JD (if not opted out) 17.0 Eovaldi (if not traded) 12.1 Pedey (last year) Top 2: 26% (Less than Theo's first ring year and not that far from others, and this assumes we don't trade Price by then.) Top 4 (assuming JD opts out): 42% (lower than 2004 & close to other years.)

There are a lot of players who performed very well after age 30 and even 32 or 33, and I'm not talking about the steroid group. Dewey Evans is one- he actually did better as he aged, and he barely lost anything on defense. Here's a list of the best players age 30-37 just from 2000 to 2019 (2500+ PAs)- notice how many near the top were little guys: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=2500&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=30,37&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate= WAR from age 30-37 42.4 Edmonds 41.0 Beltre 38.2 C Jones 37.0 I Suzuki 35.9 B Giles 34.5 ARod 33.5 Jeter 32.0 Zobrist 31.1 J Giambi 31.0 Thome 30.1 Kent 20 players from 24.1 to 29.9, including Cano, J Damon & M Cameron 19 players from 20.0 to 24.0, including Kinsler & J Valentin (P Polanco & B Gardner almost made the list.) Betts has better numbers than most of these guys at age 27. Sure,many players didn't even last to age 37, but how many players, with numbers like Betts, went on to be total busts after age 30? I'm sure there are many, like Pujols, but there are many that did not, too.

I remember some posters saying we'd be screwed if he opted out.

You just said players decline at age 30 (not true for many of the better players), so how is he "post prime" at age 27?

You have to factor in what he does with the money saved by trading Betts. That, in a sense, is part of the trade. I think most Sox fans would understand that- just like they did when we traded AGon, although that involved dumping the much fan-hated CC. We won a ring in 2013, clearly as a result of the money saved on that deal and how Ben spent it wisely. Sure, we'll likely lose some fans by trading Betts, but if we present the trade in the right way, by announcing we will go all out to re-sign him in 2021, then maybe it won't have the negative impact many seem to think it might have. Plus, if Bloom spends Betts's money wisely, maybe we'll end up going farther than many fans expect, and the "lost" fans will come back quickly. As you know, I'm all for bringing Betts back, and it seems like I'm in a minority on this site, so I guess that means people are okay with losing fans from 2021-2030 but not 2020 alone.

I'm saving him as the throw-in for my next trade suggestion.

Price for Myers -save $18M on AVV JBJ (~$11.5M/1) & Eovaldi ($51M/3) and $7M a year x 3 yrs for Marisnik (~$3.2M/1) & Pressley ($24.5M/3 but just $6.8M lux tax) -save $11.5M on AVV (or $0M had we just non tendered JBJ)

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat and throw in Brian Johnson, too. If they want Hembree, him too.

I think Bloom will not decide on trading Betts until July. He will trade JBJ and non tender Leon & Hembree. He may try to trade Price or Eovaldi to get a little wiggle room to fill some gaps and see wharer we stand in July. At that point, he'll choose to shoot for one more ring or start a sell-off. Just my opinion as we wait and see what Bloom will end up doing.

Am I missing something? I'm not sure what this means. Trade Price to LAD? Sure. How much $$$ do we include?

True, but what is the precedent for projecting how unique and exceptional twitch reflexes age? We keep hearing how small and speedy players tend to age poorly, but how many of them his 30+ HRs routinely? Past precedent shows power ages well, but apparently some feel not for Betts. Look, I get it's a huge risk- very huge. It could go terribly wrong. I'm not anywhere near 100% sure $330/10 would be a plus deal for us. I'm also not so sure the Yanks would pay him more.

I think by the time Betts reaches year 6, contracts will be so high, $30M will not be a big overpay. The last 2-3 years might hurt, but the first 7-8 will mopre than make up for it, IMO. I think he's probably worth $50M x 4, so paying him $130M/7 for the remainder is not a gross overpay. I realize it's a gamble, but Betts is special. He's a freak with his off-the-charts twitch times.

Yes, or give an opt out with a heavily front loaded deal.

...and it's not like we get Betts back or nothing at all. The $33M a year for Betts can get us some other very nice FAs.

Yes, but you said a 3 year opt out would go to age 32. It's 31. I actually don't think to age 37 is all that bad. 3 years in peak prime (29-31) 2 years in prime (32-33) 3 in post prime (34-35) 2 in past prime (36-37)

If we sign Betts after 2020, and he opts out after 3 years, we'd have him through age 31, not 32. 28 2020 last arb year 29 2021 yr 1 30 2022 yr 2 31 2023 yr 3 (He'd turn 32 Oct 7th.)

I think most of Red Sox nation was disgusted by 2019 and knows our pitchers are high injury risks and not likely to lead us to a ring in 2020. I may be wrong, and I don't live in New England anymore, but Sox fans aren't dumb, in general. Most might be fine with 2020 being viewed as a rebuild year, as long as they feel we'll be back in contention by 2021 or 2022. BTW, any trade of Betts that I would go along with would have to be for a decent return. To me, it doesn't have to be ML ready studs in return, as long as Bloom shows an over plan that gets us back to the top within 1-2 years. Also, I have said many times, if I trade Betts, I'm still going all out to re-sign him in 2021. To me, that would be the best of both worlds. Get something very good for him and then bring him back. (If we lose out on the bidding, let Bloom take the $30+M and spend on multiple lower cost bargain signings.)

I could see these type of deals maybe happening: Betts + Price or Eovaldi for scraps, then Bloom working his magic with lower cost signings and trades. Betts for a $10-13M cost decent player (to lessen the financial hit on the accepting team) plus better prospects due to less money cost of the deal. Betts for very good but far away prospects, then Bloom flips them for under-the-radar ML players.

I could see $120/3 with opt out plus $210/7 for the remainder. Total: $330M/10 getting the job done. If contracts keep going up and the new CBAn is more favorable to the players, Betts can opt out at a decent age to get one last big deal (bigger than $210/7).

I think we also got spoiled when we had a short period when a lot studs came up at the same time. We hard a lot of, "Don't worry, we'll rebuild the farm in no time."

You're forcing me to say it: how about a 3-way deal?