moonslav59

We need a 2Bman and have 4 FT OF'ers with 2-3 promising reserves. Duran did miss time in '23,

Yup. Now, even MVP is using errors (fldg% is about the same.) 2023 to 2025 DRS Rankings (90 entries: 30 teams x 3 seasons) 13. BOS 2024 32. BOS 2025 71. BOS 2023 OAA 28. BOS +11 in 2025 71. BOS -18 in 2024 89. BOS -51 in 2023 (a +62 turnaround in 2 seasons.) Fangraph's rankings: 14th 2025 Sox 70th 2024 Sox 88th 2023 Sox (a remarkable improvement from third worst to top 15 from 3 seasons, which is like top 5 per 30 teams.)

True, but he still is one of our best offensive players, even without his baserunning. Some of the batters you mentioned are straight platoon players, but maybe Duran should be too.

Mullins will likely not get picked. Sandlin, too. I suppose we could wait until after Rule 5 for that offer.

True dat!

From 2024 to 2025, Fangraphs has DHam ranked about 30th in fWAR among players where 2B is their "primary position." (500+ PAs) His 1.8 fWAR in 511 PAs comes to a better fWAR per PA than about 5-7 player above him, making him, by this metric a top 25 2Bman over the past 2 seasons. Of course, that one stretch in 2024 inflates his numbers, and the recency aspect hurts his value, but I do think some GMs would like him on their 40. The Rays might take DHam & Casas for Yandy, or maybe DHam + Fitts or Criswell & ICampbell.

He's decent on D, but at 2B only, so the "utility" aspect is not really present. He might be an okay batter vs RHPs, but his 2025 numbers show otherwise. .618 v R in 2025 (174 PAs) .729 in 2024 (267) We might be surprised that several GMs would want DHam, but I doubt they give a Yandy Diaz type for him, despite his 1 year left at $12M and at age 34.

If we traded 2 OF'ers it could work.

I'd try to sub Clarke or Valera & Mullins/Sandlin, but I'm not sure that would be enough.

Top Sox wRC+ Leaders for 2025 (200+ PAs unless noted) 146 Devers (traded) 140 Anthony (ended season on IL) 128 Refsnyder (platoon) 125 Bregman (opt out clause) 123 Romy (started season as platoon) 114 Lowe (mid August addition) 119 PAs 111 Duran (hot winter trade rumors) 110 Abreu (platoon and spent time on IL) 101 Story (first full season since COL days) 97 Narvaez (pretty good for a catcher) 91 Rafaela (could win GG Award) 88 Yoshida (misse dtime, then came on strong at the end) 86 Campbell, 83 Sogard (104 PAs) 80 Mayer (136) 77 Toro, 60 DHam (194) 56 Casas (112) 39 Wong (188)

Yanks lost again!

This is the point I've been making for yrs. While 1 year deals are "less risky," in general, we've struck out on all of them. Wacha & Hill did okay, but missed key moments of the season. It's easy to look back and select a longer deal that worked better, but in our case, even the bad longer term deals would have just broken even, because all our one year deals sucked. $5M + $6M Perez + $10M Richards '20-'21 ($21M) $7M Wacha+ $5M Hill "22 ($12M) $10 Kluber + $10M Paxton '23 ($20M) $39M/2 Giolito '24 ($19M) $21M Buehler+ $18M/2 Sandoval '25 ($49M counting GIo and 1/2 Sandoval) That's about $120M total. Some comps: 2022: $110M/6 Gausman, $44M/2 Rodon, $36M/3 Kikuchi 2023: $63M/3 Bassitt, $40M/3 Eflin, $34M/2 Nate, $26M/2 Wacha 2024: $75M/3 S Gray, $53M/4 Imanaga, $45M/3 S Lugo, $32M/2 Wacha 2025: $75M/3 Nate, $63M/3 Kikuchi, $55M/4 Pivetta, $35M/2 Flaherty, $29M/2 Boyd Cherry-picked- YES!

Thus Spoke BTV.

If we trade DHam, does that mean we keep Grissom, or do we just go with Sogard and Romy as infield depth?

I'd probably give Harrison (maybe Fitts) & DHam for Yandy. How about DHam & Sandlin (or Mullins) for Yandy just before the Rule 5 draft.

The thing is, we could trade 2 OF'ers to teams in great need for OF help but not $500M to spend. Duran is due $8M in 2026, then 2 arbs. Abreu had 3 arbs after one pre-arb season. Rafaela gets $48M/6, which is a bargain for a 3+ WAR CF'er. Campbell $60M/8 might be a financial gamble, but Jh Garcia has a few pre-arb years to go. Duran & Tolle for K Marte? Abreu, Clarke & Sandlin for Ryan Sign Tucker & Hoskins

If Refsnyder does not come back, look for Abreu to get a shot at FT play. He probably deserves it over Duran. Better D and better OPS vs LHPs: .676 to .600 in 2025.) Even if Ref does return, they may use Ref to platoon DH with Yoshida. To me, I agree on not "selling low" on Casas, but keep him as the much needed depth at 1B (and DH.) Count on Mayer as depth at SS, 3B and 2B with the idea that he probably plays FT, if healthy, and with 3 positions to choose from, the odds are he gets to play: we just don't hand him a FT job in January. We basically have to hand a FT OF slot to Anthony. I think with Campbell and Jh garcia as depth, we cana fford to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Ref & Yoshida as corner OF depth, we could maybe even afford to trade 2 OF'ers with maybe one being Campbell or Jh Garcia. I totally agree with you: depth is nice but not at the expense of leaving some key positions weak. I don't think we'll run low on OF'ers, despite seeing Eaton play the OF at the end of 2025. I keep saying Duran looks like the best one to trade, because I think the return would be high, and he may be close to decline years. His defense is not as good as any of the others we have, he's paid more than all except Anthony and his years of control is the shortest of all. That being said, I don't do it, if we don't add a big bat to take his place and another to take Bregman's place. Something like Suarez/Alonso/Schwarber for Bregman and Alonso/Schwarber/Tucker/KMarte for Duran. Add the return of Anthony for 600+ PAs and our offense would be top 5.

I hope the Sox brass doesn't put too much hope into returning players from injury and fail to fill 2-4 slots that need reliable players (3B, 2B, 1B, SP) SP: Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts (Houck is out until 2027.) RP: Slaten, Wink, Criswell, Guerrero 1B: Casas 3B/2B: Mayer LF/RF: Anthony

Here is maybe a realistic winter outcome: Bregman & Gio walk. Story stays. Ref comes back for one more season. We trade Duran, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan. We trade Hicks, Wong and Sandlin for Sean Murphy We sign 37 yr old M. Kelly (2 yrs), 29 yr old G. Torres (4 yrs + option) and 33 yr old Hoskins (2 yrs + option) SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Early/Harrison/Perales RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell, Fitts, Kelly/Moran/Guerrero/Murphy/Sandlin C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH) 1B: Hoskins, Casas/Romy-Campbell 2B: Torres, Romy, DHam 3B: Mayer, Story, Eaton, Romero SS: Story, Mayer, Sogard LF: Anthony, Jh Garcia, Campbell CF: Rafaela, Jh Garcia RF: Abreu, Refsnyder-JH Garcia DH: Murphy, Yoshida- Romy/Refsnyder

Exactly, and then you get surprise guys who seem to do better in the bigs than they did in the minors. While Houck was pretty highly ranked on the sox prospect list, I don't think people saw him as better than others before and after him in the system. Mata and Groome were ranked above him. In 2020, T Ward and Song were above him. How about Crawford and Dobbins? Crawford made it to #16 in 2022, then fell to #23. He had more than 8 pitchers ahead of him, including Brandon Walter who once posted a 68-3 K:BB ratio in AA! Kutter's career minor league ratio was 3.5:1. Dobbins was ranked 11th and 12th, recently. He had 4 pitchers ahead of him, including Fitts and Sandlin. Dobbins posted a 176:65 K:BB in 126 IP in '24 (AA/AAA) His career K:BB was 3.0. Neither looked like great K:BB pitchers. Not bad, but not great. Maybe I'm too high on Holobetz and Fajardo. Maybe I just really want those trades to work out to further prove Brez knows what he's doing, even when it looks like maybe he doesn't. Maybe I'm just a homer.

It looked like we greatly improved on fundamentals over the season, but it did come back to bite us in the ass in the Yankee series. Defense: First 81 games: 319 ERs allowed/ 50 UnEarned Last 81 games: 279/ 28 Baserunning: First 81: 4.0 fangraphs rating (5th) Last 81: 4.1 (6th)

My EOY Power Rankings (overlooking playoff results) 1. MIL 2. PHI 3. NYY 4. LAD 5. TOR 6. CHC 7. SEA 8. BOS 9. SDP 10. CIN

I suppose we could trade two OF'er and sign Tucker. It sounds more complicated than it is, and I think teams would be beating down our doors to get Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. Maybe we package one with some pitching prospect for K Marte. Maybe we sign Torres. Maybe we package another for a pitcher like Ryan, Lopez or Keller. Maybe we trade for Y Diaz or sign Hoskins or Naylor and not Alonos, Suarez or Schwarber. Lots of options.

Great stuff, Hugh, and you are right about K:BB rates. I mentioned Holobetz as "the prize" of the Priester trade, while many were all over YRod as being a poor return. The age factor is very significant, too, as some of the youngest players are putting up pretty good numbers against much older batters. I lowered the IP to 30 and came up with these K/BBs: 8.2 Carlson A+ 24 6.1 Monegro AA 22 5.9 Holobetz A+/AA 23 5.9 Van Belle AAA 5.8 Tolle A+/AA/AAA (then MLB) 22 5.7 Moran (Rehabed) 5.3 Sansone A-/A+/AA 26 (IL) 5.1 McShane A-/A+ 22 Selected: 3.7 Drohan 26 3.3 Early 23 & Uberstine 26 3.1 Fajardo 19 2.9 Futrell 2.6 Wehunt, 2.5 Travieso, 2.4 Mullins, 2.2 Clarke Valera at 4.6 but under 30 IP. 2024-2025 Selected w 50+ IP: 9.1 Paez 6.2 Sansone 4.8 Ingrassia 3.9 Monegro

1. It's not really $40M. 2. If we don't spend his money, we get worse. 3. I think his leadership was a big reason we made the playoffs. 4. Almost all major FA signings are gross overpays 5. I do think we can spend the money in a better way.