moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Taking Pollock off the Dodger's hands is a big plus for LA. They have Verdugo, too. The simulator, for right or wrong, has Betts at +50 and Pollock at -31.8. Stripling & Gonsolin total 38.8 We should be able to get much more, even if this site is wrong.
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If we trade Betts & Price and get back Pollock and Gonsolin and/or Maeda, we don't really have holes at OF and SP3/4. We could then trade JBJ and sign an OF'er (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig). We could also sign pen help (Hudson as a bridge to 2021 or Stammen, Cishek or Wood) We could also trade for salary. Pollock is superfluous to the Dodgers. If we get Maeda and Gonsolin, Price is no longer superfluous to LA.
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Price is already a hole in the rotation. We can't count on him. Pollock and Maeda/Gonsolin do not leave holes. Gonsolin might be a better bet in 2020. If we can get Maeda, too, I'd try. We could pass on Downs and Cartaya and go... Betts & Price for Pollock, Kelly, Maeda, Gonsolin, Wong and Beaty If Pollock & Maeda stay healthy and Kelly rebounds, we may be as good as with Betts and an iffy Price.
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I'm not sure how it's different from trading Betts and then dumping Price is a separate deal.
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Taking Pollock just about evens up the actual worth of Price. (He's owed $42M/3 counting the buyout, so that makes Price cost $54M/3 or $18M x 3.) Now, that is assuming Pollock has no value, which is not true. The Dodgers getting Betts for Pollock is a huge gain. It's enough for us to get Gonsolin and Busch or Wong. Betts & Price (no money) for Pollock, Gonsolin & Busch or Wong. If we take Kelly, the money works better of LA, and we can get Pollock, Kelly and Gonsolin and Downs or instead of Downs- Cartaya & Maeda. Pollock + Kelly= about $21M on the Lux tax. That saves us $11M a year for 3 years. That's huge. Losing Betts's $27M, this year, gets us way under to reset. It allows us to sign a couple remaining FAs, now and maybe make a move at the deadline. $11M off 2021 and 2022 allows us to re-sign Betts.
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The Dodger "fit" just seems too real to be just a rumor. The Dodgers want a big stud to put them in the favorite's slot. That's Betts. The Dodgers can probably take on some salary. That's Price or Eovaldi. They have some players that can help balance the money to just the extent the Sox can tolerate (Pollock, Kelly, Pederson). They have some decent prospects/players beyond Lux, May and Ruiz that fit our positional needs: (Simulator Value) P 29.1 Urias 19.9 Gonsolin 18.3 Gray 12.2 Maeda C 10.3 Cartaya 10.0 Barnes 4.3 Wong OF Peters 8.3 Rodrigiez 5.4 2B 21.9 Downs 7.6 Busch 4.6 Estevez 1B 3.3 Beaty 5.4 Vargas 4.7 Santana 4.5 Rios I'm thinking a deal gets done with the Dodgers or Padres (Myers + young talent).
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I'm not saying I want this deal done, but it was accepted by the trade simulator: Betts (50.0) for Gonsolin (19.9) P Cartaya (10.3) C Peters (8.3) OF Busch (7.6) 2B Beaty (3.3) 1B- good platoon match with Chavis 49.4 Total OR Betts & Northcut (51.4) for Downs 2B 21.9 Gonsolin P 19.9 Cartaya C 10.3 Total 52.1 Here's one with Eovaldi: Betts & Eovaldi (20.5) for Joe Kelly -12.7 Gonsolin, Cartaya & Beaty Total 20.8
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Trading Betts is not about getting equal return, although we can. It’s about getting something for him, instead of a lousy comp pick. Re-sign him next year or spend that money elsewhere. I’m not saying I’m for trading Betts, since I want him to retire a Sox, but losing him next winter for nothing is the worst scenario, to me.
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ERod and Porcello via Cespedes were not entirely unproductive. Plus this is and was then more about clearing budget space for the next season.
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I thought I was clear about this being about 2021 and beyond.
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Sounds okay, but why miss out on getting something for Betts. If keeping him helps us keep him, which I’m not convinced it does, then I’m all for this idea.
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My guess is, if we don't reset in 2020, signing Betts in 2021 and trying to reset in 2021 would seruiusly hamper any chance at winning in 2021 and probably beyond. If we tried to win in 2021 by spending, basically we'd be over the line by about what Betts will be paid ($34-39M/yr), and all would be taxed at 50%. Just reset in 2020 and try hard to bring back Betts at a 20% tax rate in 2021. That's about $7M vs. about $18M in taxes. Think of what $11M can get you on the open market.
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Depending on what we get back in return, trading Betts & Price would (seemingly) all but end our 2020 chances. The idea would be to improve our chances in 2021 and beyond, including the idea that we might bring Betts back. I remember people saying back in 2012, after we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront & Miller, we had no chance in 2013. Never say never.
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Even if we don't get Betts to sign with us, resetting better positions us to build up our roster for 2021 and beyond.
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A 50% tax on Betts's next contract is a lot.
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To me,maybe the best way to keep Betts long term is to reset this year. If trading Betts and then re-signing him positions us better in 2021 and beyond, then maybe that's the best choice.
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There's no way we get LA to go for that. I may not even get Pollock & Gonsolin for Betts and Price, even though the simulator says the Sox come up short.
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Can? Yes. Betts and JD could repeat 2018 not 2019, too. Will we? Not likely. Is going for one last (long odds) hurrah in 2020 worth delaying and hampering the road back to the top?
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5 making almost $135M- about 65% of the budget. Plus... (after 2020) 1 more year of Pedey at $13.8M ERod's last arb (4th year arbs can get expensive.) Beni's 2nd arb Barnes 3rd arb Devers 1st arb and more... I'm still looking for a reason why resetting in 2021 makes more sense.
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This trade was accepted, but I doubt the Dodgers say yes: Betts, Price, Chavis, Duran & $9M for Pollock, Maeda, Gonsolin, Downs & Cartaya or Pollock, Kelly, Ruiz, Gonsolin & Ferguson
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Assuming the simulator is close to being correct, which do you prefer? A) Price, Betts and $18M for Pederson ($6M a year x 3 yrs) Price, Betts and $5.3M for Pederson & Kelly C) Price, $3.7M & Betts for Pollock, Gonsolin & Cartaya D) Price, $2M & Betts for Pollock, Kelly, Gonsolin, Cartaya, Busch & Beaty Plan A does only cost us $6M a year after Joc is gone in 2021 & 2022, but we basically get nothing but salary relief for Betts, unless Joc lead us to a 2020 ring. Plan B just gets us the hope Kelly rebounds and a player instead of just paying cash, but it's still just a salary dump. Plan C gets us two nice young players, but we pay Pollock $12M x 3 years on the Lux tax. (Plan A was $6M x 3, though.) Plan D gets us 4 young players but Pollock & Kelly cost us about $20M for 2020 & 2021 and $12M for 2022- still better than paying Price $31M x 3.
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The hope is 2019 was the outlier not 2018. (Note: I'm not drinking the strong contender Kool-Aid, but I've not given up hope, either.)
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Who is the greatest under-the-radar player in Sox history?
moonslav59 replied to Northern Star's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I've heard all the names. My final list might be: 1. Uehara (3rd string closer to start 2013.) 2. Mueller (THE MAN!) 3. Carbo (That 3 run HR in the bottom of the 8th...) 4. Daubach (Working man's player.) 5. Nava (We got this guy for a dollar from the Independent League.) -
If Betts gets $36M, we're talking $75M for those 3 players, and almost $155M for just 6 guys (Betts, Price, Sale, Bogey, JD & Eovaldi). That's about 75% of a budget at the tax line.
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The cliff is here. Even if we dump Price, JBJ and Eovaldi, we will still likely be in the top 5 or 6 spending teams with very little hope ate evn making the WC play-in game in 2020. Thank God we won in 2018, or the tone here on this site would be intolerable.
