moonslav59

My list was about 2020 only. Chavis may improve, but he looks like Middlebrooks, to me. I'm not just handing him away. I'm thinking that we could include him in a Price or Eovaldi trade to sweeten the return or lessen the amount of money needed to pay. I like Dalbec better, but I know he may pull a Middy, too.

The blow up would not include Ward. ERod is part of the future. He's the only reliable starter we have. Trading him means we need 5 starters for the future. Ward is one. Maybe Mata another. Trading ERod says screw 2020 and 2021, lets go for 2022. If that's the plan, then follow it all the way by trading anyone with 1-2 years of team control or who is not projected to be helpful in 2022 and beyond. Just don't count me in. ERod is a proven winner. It's basically all he does. The team is 47-14 in his starts the last two years.

No likely to help in 2020. I didn't say beyond 2020. I'd trade Chavis and start Dalbec at 1B, but that ain't happening. Chatham is a long shot.

LOL. I already said I'd vote for Bonds, Clemens, Manny & Walker. That's 4 in 1 year- hardly empty. All way more deserving than Jete.

If we trade ERod, we might as well blow it all up by trading everyone but Devers & Bogey or anyone under team control for 4 or more years. Not happening.

There are a lot of little things that are different from 2018, and they add up. Sure, there are some "additions by subtractions," but it's more than just Porcello & Kimbrel, who are pretty major losses without adequate replacement. No Sale binky-Leon. (Price did much better with Leon, too.) No Nunez, who played more 2B in 2018 than anyone else (6th in PAs on team). No Pearce, who hit over .900 for us after the trade and was huge in the post season. No Moreland (8th in PAs) & Holt (9th in PAs) No Porcello (most IP) No Pomeranz (7th in IP) No Kelly (8th) No Kimbrel (9th) No Wright (54 IP 2.68 ERA) Yes, the main core is still here, but many have huge question marks on health or trends. I've not given up hope, but we need so much to go right, and we did nothing to improve while many AL teams have, I just think the odds are too long to be overly hopeful. It could just take 3 guys to be strong this year: Sale, Price & Eovaldi to have a good chance at making the playoffs, but we need others to step up or not have down years, too. If people are buying season tickets or tuning into NESN to watch Betts play, I can understand it. If they are doing it because they honestly think we will be highly competitive, I have to say I doubt we will be.

I get that, too. I know why they are doing this, but it may likely damage our chances at getting back to the top more quickly. Sometimes just the perception of being good can make you more money.

LOL, If just 24 things go right, all we need is the 25th guy to do well and presto!

I get that, and the plan is likely going to be to sell in July- assuming I'm right about us not be competitive. That way, we sell tickets. We did sell off in 2021 (July) and ended up winning in 2013. I'm not sure how many fewer season tickets were sold the winter before 2013.

I don't see us a being all that competitive for 2020. We just need too many things to go right to have any real shot at being strong contenders. I think not resetting just to give the appearance we will be competitive is a bad plan. If we really wanted to be competitive in 2020, we'd have signed more than the 3 little P's. Playing it halfway will hamper our chances at getting stronger in 2021 and beyond. I understand they have to sell tickets, and I realize this is just my opinion, but this halfway crap bugs me. Go for broke or go for a reset and the shortest rebuild period possible.

That was a head-scratcher. Taylor, Walden & Chavis were the only fringe players that did well, and Chavis was actually just good for about 2-3 weeks: First 15 games: 1.186 OPS Last 80 games: .690 OPS (although the 45 RBIs helped)

It's rather shocking how many unpromising players we have on our 40 man roster. Here's how I break it down: 17 Helpful: Vazquez JBJ (1 year left) Workman (1 yr) Bogey Betts (1 yr) Barnes ERod Beni Devers JD Walden Chavis (?) Taylor DHernandez (?) Peraza Perez Plawecki 5 Questionable (recent or longstanding injury): Hembree Price Eovaldi Sale Pedey 12 Likely not helpful or very helpful in 2020: Velazquez Lin Poyner Brasier Brewer Brice/Marco (DFA'd) Osich Dalbec Wilson Chatham Arauz (Rule 5- needs to be on 26 man roster, right?) Mazza 6 Unpromising: Lakins Reyes Weber Shawaryn Aybar Hart That's over 20 player that are highly questionable at best to unpromising at worst. Assuming 100% health and no more acquisitions or DFA's, here is our projected 26 man roster for opening day: 13 Pitchers S1 Sale S2 ERod S3 Price S4 Eovaldi S5 Perez R1 Workman R2 Barnes R3 Taylor R4 Walden R5 DHern R6 Hembree R7 Brice R8 Velazquez 13 Everyday Players C Vazquez, Plawecki 1B Chavis 2B Peraza, Pedey 3B Devers, Arauz SS Bogey, Lin LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH/OF JD AAA Help: SP Johnson (not on 40), Hart, Houck, Reyes RP Osich, Shawaryn, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Mazza C Bandy & Nunez (both not on 40 man) 1B Longhi & Ockimey (Both not on 40) 2B Marco (recently DFA'd) 3B Dalbec SS Chatham LF Travis (no 40) CF Castillo (stuck in Purgatory) RF Andreoli (no 40) AA Long Shots: Mata, Ward, Feltman, Duran, Wilson

Not me. I actually was surprised Chavis did well for a stretch. Only Taylor and Walden did better than expected for scrubs. (I did not consider Workman a scrub.)

They obviously decided not to spend by acquiring anybody last summer, but yes, the players we called up over the year were not very good. Even Chavis only gave us about 2-3 weeks of good help then turned into a pumpkin.

Nobody is claiming he’s been mistreated. The whole arb process is very predictable. When it does go to arb it’s usually about a very small differential. I doubt Betts would have been upset with the Sox had they not settled pre-arb and he lost the arb.

Somebody asked if the 25-40 slots are much different than other years. I’d say YES!

I’m looking at the bottom of the rosters to compare the #25 to 40+ slots.

2016 Red Sox https://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2016&t=BOS

I'd say our 25-40 players were better in years past. There was no problem with rule 5 this year. We had more roster spots open, this winter, than I can remember. Perhaps worse is the fact that those not needing to be on the 40 man roster yet have been pretty unpromising over the last 2-3 years. There's little hop the 25-40 slots will improve much going forward from within the organization. Here's a look at the 44 players used in 2018- granted several were acquired after this time of the year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-roster.shtml 2016: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2016-roster.shtml 2013: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-roster.shtml

They are all pretty close and equally unpromising. He's ranked 44th just behind Kyle Hart on soxprospects.com. Is there a reason you think he should be lower on my list?

He'd be on my top 10 list of SSs I'd want on my team for more than a decade. HOF? Maybe-maybe not.

I've never said WAR is the be-all-end-all tool. I'm very stingy on who belongs in the HOF. I'm not changing my criteria over Jeter. I don't think Schilling belongs, either, so it's not a Yankee thing. I'm also very stingy on those that get in just because they played 20 years of better than mediocre ball. I think Jeter's defense was so bad, it lowered his overall value to pint where he's close, but I'd vote no. Maybe by his last chance ballot I might change my mind. I like WAR. I use WAR, at times but not often. I think it has flaws, and maybe this case highlights one of them. Jeter was a horrible fielder for more than half his career. He played a position where defense is extremely important. Maybe I over value SS defense, and I'm dead wrong, but it's who I am. I would not vote for Jeter on the first ballot and probably every one until maybe his last year on the ballot.

I felt he could, but was he really that good, last year?

Agreed. The arb avoidance means nothing. He'd have maybe made $500K to $1M more or less had he went to arb. I project he gets $350M/10 or more from someone. Harper got $330M/13. Machado got $300M/10. I'd probably go as high as $350M/10 but would try to get $350M/11 or have some options at the end, so we could get out after 8 or 9 years, maybe something like this: 39M x 8 ($312M) $20M option ($10M buyout) year 9 $18M option ($8M buyout) year 10 This comes to $312M/8, $332M/9 or $350M/10 If he says no, then we can feel content we offered more than a fair deal, and we'd hopefully spend that money elsewhere.

Kinda felt it was implied, but I guess you're right.