moonslav59

I like the guy, but we need to cut salary and Pitt is not looking to add salary by taking a larger salary back.

I guess the theory would be to trade ERod for a pitcher not as good as him but with more years of control. This lessens our team value for 2020 and 2021 but may improve it for 2022 and beyond- depending on the numbers of years of control. It's not an outlandish idea, but I'm hopeful we can win in 2021.

Giving $5M with JBJ kind of defeats the purpose of cutting major budget cost, but I'd probably do that deal, if they threw in Marisnick. I know you are not a fan of his, but he plays great D and is versatile. He's not known for his offense, but 2017-2019: OPS .728 Marisnick .727 JBJ (double the PAs)

Trading a guy after his best year makes sense, in theory. Sell high. I guess one has to think ERod topped out in 2019 to like the trade idea, unless the 2 years of control sways your thinking towards a longer controlled pitcher on a longer term rebuild plan.

The trade simulator does not accept ERod & JBJ f(30.0 value combined) for May (55.4). We'd have to add Chavis and Walden to come close. I think the site undervalues 2 years of ERod. That package, according to the site, might get us ... C Ruiz (34.3) or SP Urias (29.1) or 2B Downs (20.6) + C Cartaya (12.3) or SP Gonsolin or Stripling 18.9 + C Cartaya (12.3) or SP Gray (17.2) + C Cartaya (12.3) or Gonsolin (18.9) + Maeda (12.2) I don't think I like any.

BB/PA by 2019 innings: 14/146 1st 11/141 2nd 13/139 3rd 15/147 4th 8/132 5th 14/152 6th & 7th combined Career 47/522 1st 44/526 2nd 37/494 3rd 48/515 4th 32/441 5th 27/334 6th 12/142 7th & 8th This shows what we all know: he has struggled to get out of the 4th inning.

Your thoughts on my Mets offer?

I like Ward a lot, but we will not rush him. We shouldn't either. To me, the most likely AAA players to help us in 2020 are: Dalbec Houck Chatham Shawaryn Mata, Ward, Duran & Feltman are expected to begin in AA. I supposeone could be a September call-up, but we are more likely to give some AAA players a look before them. We also have rule 5 guy Jonathan Arauz and Lin. Guys like Travis, Marco & Johnson might be re-added to the 40 man roster, if they are doing well and a specific need arises. There's also Kyle Hart, Denyi Reyes, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Osich, Mazza, Weber and others who could be ahead of those AA guys.

These trades were accepted: JBJ & Chavis for D. Smith, Marisnik & Matz JBJ for Lamb & Barraso

I'll take the 3.3 BB/9 with the standout .714 OPS against (.664 second half). Opponents have a .246 BA against ERod from 2018-2019. The guy wins. It's like what they used to say about Chris Carter (the MN WR'er), "All he does is catch touchdowns." (I had him on my winning fantasy football team.)

Yes, namely the money situations is a big factor.

Here's an example I just mentioned. The simulator did not accept Price, Chavis & JBJ for Myers and Margot, but my guess is if any GM would say no to that trade it would be SD's not Bloom. If I added Quantrill to the deal, it accepted it as a minor overpay- by the SOX! I'm pretty sure SD would say NO! The site has serious flaws, but I like it anyways as a way to explore frameworks for trades. I wonder how often they adjust their rating numbers?

I don't disagree, but Barnes was improving every year until 2019. If a manager uses him right, he can still get 65+ IP without going back-to-back days.

Nobody, except maybe jacko, expects all or most to "regress." The problem is we need progression from many over 2019. Yes, we don't over 2018, but we are missing a few key and many minor pieces from that 2018 club. If we get the best of 2018 or 2019 from all our players, wecould win 118 games again, even without Porcello, Kimbrel, Kelly, Pearce, Pom, Nunez, Holt, Leon and others, but that's kinda wishful thinking, isn't it? Not totally unreasonable to hope most do, but will enough do it? Here's the best season out of 2018 or 2019 by current Sox players: The optimist view: OPS 1.078 Betts '18 1.031 JD '18 .939 Bogey '19 .916 Devers '19 .830 Beni '18 .798 Vaz '18 .766 Chavis '19 .744 Lin '18 .738 JBJ '18 Here's the pessimist view: .939 JD '19 .915 Betts '19 .883 Bogey '18 .774 Beni '19 .766 Chavis '19 .731 Devers .717 JBJ .573 Lin .540 Vaz Pitchers WAR Optimist: 6.2 Sale '18 3.7 ERod '19 2.4 Price '18 2.1 Workman '19 1.5 Eovaldi '18 (1/3 season) 1.3 Barnes '19 0.9 Walden '19 0.7 Taylor '19 0.7 Brasier '18 0.5 DHern '19 0.4 Velazquez '18 0.3 Weber '19 0.3 Lakins '19 0.3 Johnson '18 0.2 Poyner '18 0.1 Hembree '18 & '19 Pessimist: 3.6 Sale'19 2.3 Price '19 2.1 ERod '18 1.2 Barnes '18 0.3 Brasier '19 0.2 Walden '18 0.1 Hembree '18 & '19 0.0 Poyner '19 0.0 Johnson '19 -0.2 Shawaryn '19 -0.3 Eovaldi '19 Peraza: .742 in '18 .631 in '19 Perez: 1.9 in '19 -0.1in '18

I hope I'm as wrong as I was in 2013.

Good to see improvement as he rises up levels in the minors, but his K rate is was still very high: 24.7%. That's actually a bit lower than Middy & Chavis in the minors, overall, but... Chavis AAA in 2019: 26.6% (26.8 in 2018) So, he was getting worse as he moved up and continued getting worse in MLB. Middy in AAA before 20212 call up was at 18% (18 in 100 PAs) and was at just 24.1 in 2011, so he was improving like Dalbec is.

True, but I think Price for Myers makes sense to both sides. Price is owed $96M/3 and counts as $31M x 3 on Lux Tax (SD does not pay Lux tax) Myers is owed $68.5M/3 BUT counts just $13.8M x 3 on Lux tax- a $17.2M per year benefit to the Sox on the Lux tax- about what we are over, now. The Padres basically pay Price about $9M more than they were going to pay Myers. We could even chip in a little money or add a player. Asking them to take on JBJ might be too much, so maybe trading him elsewhere makes more sense, but I'd love to get Margot back. His stock fell a little last year, but he's a plus defender and cheaper than JBJ. He also has 3 years of team control. I'd give Price, JBJ and Chavis for Myers and Margot despite the site saying it's not accepted as a major overpay by the Sox. It does accpet the trade, if SD adds Quantrill.

I agree, and that's why I like Dalbec more than Chavis, but I've found OBP in the minors does not always translate to MLB. Add to this the belief that Dalbec is the better defender of the 2 or 3, and one can see why Dalbec is valued higher than Chavis. I worry about both. Minors K% 25.1% Middy (702 in 2795 PAs) 25.5% Chavis (449 in 1757) 29.8% Dalbec (480 in 1609) BB% 11.7% Dalbec (189 in 1609) 7.6% Chavis (134 in 1757) 7.1 % Middy (198 in 2795) OBP .362 Dalbec .325 Chavis .325 Middy K:BB 2.5:1 Dalbec 3.4:1 Chavis 3.6:1 Middy MLB K:B: 3.8 : 1 Chavis (127 to 33) 5.1 : 1 Middy (325 to 64) n/a Dalbec

For argument's sake, let's assume these trade values are correct (baseballtradevalues.com) 127 Devers 91 Bogey 51 Betts 36 Beni 28 ERod 25 Barnes 25 Casas 23 Vaz 19 Dalbec 18 Chavis 16 Mata 12 Duran 11 D Hern 9 Jiminez 6 JD 6 Taylor 6 Walden 5 Workman 5 Ward Who do I think is comparatively over valued (sell high) players? 1. Chavis 2. Walden 3. Duran 4. Barnes 5. Beni (tough call) Highest Negative Value: -55 Price -30 Eovaldi -25 Pedey (untradeable) -11 Sale 0 Brasier, Hembree and others Who has the best chance at turning positive? 1. Sale Based on my beliefs, I suggested this trade on that site and it was accepted: Price, JBJ, Chavis, Walden & Duran +$6M ($2M x 3 yrs towards Price) to SD for Myers, Margot, Campusano & Quantrill (It shows we overpaid by 5, but I think this could work for us. It gets us under the luxury tax and fills our CF position, nicely and gives us minor league depth.) The site also accepted this much more simpler trade: Price (+$4M) & JBJ for Myers & Margot

Chavis had better OPS and HR/PAs numbers at AA and AAA than Dalbec, but the sample sizes are small for one or both. Chavis's K rate is closer to Middy's than Dalbecs, but all are/were high. Chavis's last 80 games in the bigs, last year look a lot like Middy's second season with the Sox.

Yes, I said hoping "enough of all...go right." We probably can't have Sale, Price & Eovaldi go right but Erod get hurt again or decline. We probably can't have Betts & JD return to 2018 numbers, if Vaz and Devers do, too. To me, we have a lot of 30-50% chances of each player having big years- maybe 40-55% chances if being optimistic. Can it happen? Of course. Many feel (not me) that 2013 was such a year, while the evidence shows most players did not have career years that year, but it is an example of a year when just enough went right, including our 3rd string closer having one of the best seasons, if not the best, a closer ever could have. I remember being upset that winter and summer before- thinking we were "playing it halfway" and just trying to do enough to appear competitive. I was wrong then, and I could be wrong, now. I hope I am.

You don't think there's a chance Chavis and/or Dalbec might end up like Middy? Middy: .791 in AAA (62 HRs/286 K'sin 1238 PAs), but... .865 in AA in 2011 (18HRs/95K's in 397 PAs) 1.057 in AAA in 2012 (9 HRs/18 K's in 100 PAs) .835 first half season in MLB (15 HRs/70 K's in 286 PAs) .611 afterwards (28 HRs/255 K's in 948 PAs after 2012) Chavis: .834 in AA (20 HRs/91K's in 413 PAs) .911 in AAA (9HRs/33Ks in 113 PAs) .766 in first half season in MLB (18 HRs/127 K's in 382 PAs), but... 1.186 first 15 games (6 HRs/16 K'sin 63 PAs) .690 next 80 games (12 HRs/111K'sin 319 PAs) Dalbec (Better defender than Middy & Chavis in the minors) .945 A+ (26 HRs/130 K's in 419 PAs) .829 AA (26 HRs/156 K's in 563 PAs) .779 AAA (7 HRs/29 K's in 123 PAs) All 3 had 25-30 HR power over 650 PAs and very high K rates. That doesn't mean they willall end up with same fates, but certainly there's a significant chance Chavis and/or Dalbec may end up being no better than Middy. I'm not sure why, buy I like Dalbec more than the other two. His defense is better, and his K rate looks a little better.

I have tremendous faith in Bloom, but we have to get the budget under control, so he has some room to move, first. I don't have much faith in 2020. I had had hopes this day would not arrive, so quickly, but it's here and now. I'm clinging to some slivers of hope that Sale, Price and Eovaldi will all have a good year at the same time, but the realist in me knows those odds are long. Some players took big steps up, last year, namely Devers, Vaz, Taylor, Walden & Workman. Erod solidified his standing as our most reliable and winning SP'er. Hoping Betts & JD play more like 2018 than 2019 is not a long shot. Hoping JBJ, if not traded, avoids a pro-longed slump is not a wild hope. Hoping Beni gets past his little bump in the road is not either. One at a time, nothing looks too unbelievable, but hoping enough of all these things go right at the same time is a bit of a stretch, to me. That's why I am leaning firmly towards the idea that we look more towards 2021 than 2020. I don't want us to be irrelevant for 3 years in a row (2019-2021). I'd keep Sale in hopes he returns to form. If he never regains his velocity, I have faith he has the determination to reinvent himself into a big plus by 2021 or 2022. Plus, we wouldn't get much back by trading him now. I'd look to trade my favorite Sox player over the last decade: JBJ. We can use the salary relief to help reset. We'd need to trade Price or Eovaldi to get under, and I might just settle on the best offer we can get, even if it looks bad. Keeping both looks worse, to me. (Price, JBJ, Chavis and cash for Myers & Margot might work.) If we can't dump one, maybe trading JD would get us under. He's likely opting out anyways, and we may be able to re-sign him next winter, if we reset this year. Betts is the wild card. We've discussed him enough. My worst fear is we lose him for a crummy comp pick. Everyone know I'd offer him a ton, but I'm not against trading him now or in July, so we can better our longer term outlook before trying to bring him back on a mega deal. The two year players are tough calls, too. I may be fooling myself by thinking we can reset and be back near the top by 2021, and even if I'm right, keeping 2 year-controlled players may not be a great idea, but I want ERod on this club for the next 2 years. He's a winner and doesn't cost much. That's just the type of player we need. Once we reset, I'd look to extend him. Barnes & Hembree could be dealt but only for equal value with more years of control. Workman is a tough call, too. He has one year left and is probably an ideal sell high candidate, right now, but I've always liked him and would like to see him extended. If we wait to July, and he's hurt or not doing well, what then? I'm not happy trying to be a realist here. I'd like to be optimistic about 2020, and I do go through periods of hope, but I'm in for the long haul. I've been through lean years as a Sox fan, and I may be in the minority, right now, and I understand the need to make money in 2020, but I'm thinking we should make 2021 and beyond our higher priority. I'm not 100% sold on the idea, but I'm nearly there. Bloom is the guy to get us there, but he needs time and a reset to get there.

I'm afraid some rosy glasses were received for Christmas by a few of us.

Not likely but he might help during the year. Plus, winning the opening day 2B job does not mean he'll end up being "helpful." He's less than a 50% case, IMO-probably less than 33%.